Is it too late to start trading in 2020?

[alexmr2]

If you lost all your trading experience, would you start from the beginning in 2020 or do you think it is too late and would you do something else?

My background is that I completed a Master's degree in engineering and then worked as an engineer in two different jobs for over a year. The general response to the idea of me throwing this career away to trade bets is that I've gone mad, however I am very awake to the facts that those around me are not. I do not like the corporate world nor the restrictions of a job, I do not feel that the poor engineer pay in the UK is proportionate to the effort. I have been to many companies and I simply know that this is not me and that in today's competitive market I do not have the passion (background or other attributes) to make it as a higher-end engineer. In 2018 upon finishing my last job and with the help of matched betting and savings, I had the financial foundations to give trading a good go.

I have been trading pre-race for almost 18 months and I have had many false starts however my results are starting to turn to the point of being green at the end of the week. For me, it may be another 3, 6, or 12 months, but I feel it coming. I have poured my soul into making trading my life and I feel this is where I belong and it is what I want to do for the rest of my life (currently 27), however in the back of my head there is the question of longetivity of making a living from trading. There is also the thought that I am too late to the game. I know that there is uncertaintly but possibly no less uncertaintly than my original career. There are many factors, there will always be dumb money, there will always be smart money, future taxation, future premium charge, the opportunity could get bigger with the USA legalisation or smaller through regulations etc.

I'll be honest that a big attraction of trading along with the freedom is the money and what I have gauged is possible. If you want to make any decent money you have to do what others are not doing, so why would I choose a lifestyle that I hate only to be frustrated at the mediocre financial return when focusing my effort into the markets presents a much more efficient income? I know the advantages and disadvantages of trading vs engineering well and as an entrepreneurial introvert with an obsession for online business, investing, and money in general I know which suits me better. So would you start trading in 2020 or is it too late?

[MemphisFlash]

well if you had 2 jobs in a year i say your either piss poor at it even if you have "a Degree" or your a quitter, which is it?

[Derek27]

well if you had 2 jobs in a year i say your either piss poor at it even if you have "a Degree" or your a quitter, which is it?

I've had four jobs in four years. I was neither poor at my job or a quitter! There are many, many reasons why somebody changes job. He might have got married for all you know, to someone in another part of the country!

[Derek27]

If you lost all your trading experience, would you start from the beginning in 2020 or do you think it is too late and would you do something else?

My background is that I completed a Master's degree in engineering and then worked as an engineer in two different jobs for over a year. The general response to the idea of me throwing this career away to trade bets is that I've gone mad, however I am very awake to the facts that those around me are not. I do not like the corporate world nor the restrictions of a job, I do not feel that the poor engineer pay in the UK is proportionate to the effort. I have been to many companies and I simply know that this is not me and that in today's competitive market I do not have the passion (background or other attributes) to make it as a higher-end engineer. In 2018 upon finishing my last job and with the help of matched betting and savings, I had the financial foundations to give trading a good go.

I have been trading pre-race for almost 18 months and I have had many false starts however my results are starting to turn to the point of being green at the end of the week. For me, it may be another 3, 6, or 12 months, but I feel it coming. I have poured my soul into making trading my life and I feel this is where I belong and it is what I want to do for the rest of my life (currently 27), however in the back of my head there is the question of longetivity of making a living from trading. There is also the thought that I am too late to the game. I know that there is uncertaintly but possibly no less uncertaintly than my original career. There are many factors, there will always be dumb money, there will always be smart money, future taxation, future premium charge, the opportunity could get bigger with the USA legalisation or smaller through regulations etc.

I'll be honest that a big attraction of trading along with the freedom is the money and what I have gauged is possible. If you want to make any decent money you have to do what others are not doing, so why would I choose a lifestyle that I hate only to be frustrated at the mediocre financial return when focusing my effort into the markets presents a much more efficient income? I know the advantages and disadvantages of trading vs engineering well and as an entrepreneurial introvert with an obsession for online business, investing, and money in general I know which suits me better. So would you start trading in 2020 or is it too late?

It's certainly not too late, or at least there's no reason to not start trading now as opposed to five years ago. As you know all the pros and cons I would just treat it like starting any other business, which in itself is quite a major step when giving up a secure career.

I don't think money should be a major factor though, because there's no way of knowing how much you'll make or even if you'll be successful, but obviously after 3, 6 or 12 months you'd have a better idea. Good luck.

[alexmr2]

well if you had 2 jobs in a year i say your either piss poor at it even if you have "a Degree" or your a quitter, which is it?

One was a short-term contract for 2 months which was extended to 5 months and the second was a trainee design engineer which lasted 11 months, I didn't quit either. There are more graduates than jobs so from my experience unless you are willing to go above and beyond (work through lunch, come in at weekends unpaid, stay late unpaid) for near minimum wage for a few years to prove yourself to the company then you will not "progress". Maybe I am a quitter for not pursuing this slavery harder or maybe someone that's had a few full days off trading in 18 months is your own personal definition of quitter

[Diacritical Quark]

Why would it be too late? The markets still exist, if the markets exist the opportunity is there to make money. You can't just put an arbritray time on these things. Granted back in the early 2000s when no one really knew what Betfair was you could have made a lot of money very easily, I was not one of these and as the years have gone various edges have vanished, people have become more skilled at it but that's not to say there aren't still opportunities everyday. The other thing to remember is Befair is just like any other financial market that you can trade, there's people wanting to buy/sell and get out of bad positions, if Betfair goes tits up in 6 months you've got 6 months worth of knowledge that you can transfer to Forex, Shares, CFDs, Futures.......

I am by no means a profitable trader on Betfair, I gave it a go about 5 years ago then got into matched betting. I've now come back as my matched betting days are long gone. In just 2 weeks I have taken an automated bot on Bet Angel from scratch to profitable trading with £5 stakes. Yes I understand making a few quid a day isn't your idea of quitting your job but you need to find something that is scalable. Starting with £2 stakes it won't be long before it's £200 stakes. That's not to say it won't be hard work! You have to find what's right for you, manual trading on Betfair isn't for me, I have realised this as I lack the discipline with the exchange markets, they are too fast paced for my liking and I chase losses all too quickly, I found that fully automated was the way to go for me. It will be a long journey of finding your skill set but it's worth it, you'll learn more about yourself as a person than you think you will. Good luck my friend, it's never too late to trade.

[jimibt]

well if you had 2 jobs in a year i say your either piss poor at it even if you have "a Degree" or your a quitter, which is it?

you're, as ever, coming across as a non thinking moron, lacking in both empathy and decency...

said it before, maybe you should think about becoming a motivational speaker -

[jimibt]

That's not to say it won't be hard work! You have to find what's right for you, manual trading on Betfair isn't for me, I have realised this as I lack the discipline with the exchange markets, they are too fast paced for my liking and I chase losses all too quickly, I found that fully automated was the way to go for me. It will be a long journey of finding your skill set but it's worth it, you'll learn more about yourself as a person than you think you will. Good luck my friend, it's never too late to trade.

i suffer from exactly the same impulses/discipline issues, so for me fully automated is the way to go also. if you have an analytical mind and have a methodical approach to determining the staged success of your automations, then you'll slowly but surely make good progress. I would say from experience thqat it's better to get involved in the real markets sooner than later, otherwise a *fear of not being fully ready* will set in and it will be a habit that takes a long time to break. so get involved as mentioned, with £2 stakes once you have a decent tested version of your strategy.

[Diacritical Quark]

i suffer from exactly the same impulses/discipline issues, so for me fully automated is the way to go also. if you have an analytical mind and have a methodical approach to determining the staged success of your automations, then you'll slowly but surely make good progress. I would say from experience thqat it's better to get involved in the real markets sooner than later, otherwise a *fear of not being fully ready* will set in and it will be a habit that takes a long time to break. so get involved as mentioned, with £2 stakes once you have a decent tested version of your strategy.

I found going from Betdaq with £1 stakes and poor liquidity in running to going to Betfair practice mode very similar, I think this must be down to the fact that the money doesn't affect the market at all in practice mode. It was only when I used 'real' money on Betfair I found a couple of flaws in my strategy that I managed to iron out before upping to £5. I whole heartedly agree though, it's a totally different mindset using real money, I remember a few years ago manual trading, trying to scalp the markets on a different API after watching some videos on YouTube by er Khan Bury shall we say. Absolutely killed it with £2 stakes for about 2 weeks straight, thought I'd cracked it so just went straight to £200 stakes, well that lasted all of one afternoon before I had blown a bank, was a big shock to the system that's for sure.

Oh and also you're right about the analytical mind and methodical approach. I've always been interested in coding and logic however I've never purused this past a hobby. Think the OP said he was engineer or some such, I'd say if he's got that mindset then fully automated will probably suit him down to the ground too.

[iambic_pentameter]

I'm of the belief that the sports trading markets will continue to grow.

I'd keep hold of your job as long as possible and only make trading your full time gig when you've earnt more from it than your day job.

Another sensible option would be to have at least 12 months living costs in the bank and at least three trading banks as well.

Three trading banks may sound drastic but heaven forbid if Betfair should ever go down (!) and you lose a large chunk of it, then at least you aren't back to square one.

Iambic

[Anna List]

If you lost all your trading experience, would you start from the beginning in 2020 or do you think it is too late and would you do something else?

My background is that I completed a Master's degree in engineering and then worked as an engineer in two different jobs for over a year. The general response to the idea of me throwing this career away to trade bets is that I've gone mad, however I am very awake to the facts that those around me are not. I do not like the corporate world nor the restrictions of a job, I do not feel that the poor engineer pay in the UK is proportionate to the effort. I have been to many companies and I simply know that this is not me and that in today's competitive market I do not have the passion (background or other attributes) to make it as a higher-end engineer. In 2018 upon finishing my last job and with the help of matched betting and savings, I had the financial foundations to give trading a good go.

I have been trading pre-race for almost 18 months and I have had many false starts however my results are starting to turn to the point of being green at the end of the week. For me, it may be another 3, 6, or 12 months, but I feel it coming. I have poured my soul into making trading my life and I feel this is where I belong and it is what I want to do for the rest of my life (currently 27), however in the back of my head there is the question of longetivity of making a living from trading. There is also the thought that I am too late to the game. I know that there is uncertaintly but possibly no less uncertaintly than my original career. There are many factors, there will always be dumb money, there will always be smart money, future taxation, future premium charge, the opportunity could get bigger with the USA legalisation or smaller through regulations etc.

I'll be honest that a big attraction of trading along with the freedom is the money and what I have gauged is possible. If you want to make any decent money you have to do what others are not doing, so why would I choose a lifestyle that I hate only to be frustrated at the mediocre financial return when focusing my effort into the markets presents a much more efficient income? I know the advantages and disadvantages of trading vs engineering well and as an entrepreneurial introvert with an obsession for online business, investing, and money in general I know which suits me better. So would you start trading in 2020 or is it too late?

I'm not an Engineer but I've worked for the odd engineering company, though not as an Engineer I may add. From my experience, Engineers are not as well rewarded or regarded in this country as they ought to be and as they are in some other countries. With your expertise and qualifications, I'd be looking to work abroad or even emigrate. Failing that, you could go into engineering consultancy or even start your own consultancy. You would still be exposed to the corporate world but the rewards and recognition might be greater and this might temper the blow a tad.

There's a few on this 'ere forum who are obviously doing quite well out of this gambling/trading lark, but, rest assured, they aren't the norm. They are but a small minority. On the balance of probability, you will fail to make a long-term profit - just like the many thousands before you who have tried and failed. However, if you don't give this trading lark your best shot, you will probably regret it all of your life. So try you must.

In your position, I would stay in the corporate world, kiss ass, take their money and do the trading thing on a part-time basis. You can always laugh up your sleeve when they aren't looking. That way, if you fail as a trader, you will not be financially ruined. If, after a couple of years, you find that you can earn a good and reliable income as a trader, you can then think about leaving the corporate world for life as a full-time trader.

On a note of caution: I keep hearing about how much gambling is ruining the fabric of our society. The noise seems to me to be getting louder. There was even a story on the BBC web site today about a guy who had stolen £300,000 to feed a gambling habit and had been caught and sent to prison. I can tell you about some real horror stories that I was quite close to. In fact, there may well be a few horror stories on this 'ere forum. Eventually, the government may well step in and legislate. Being in the wrong place at the wrong time may not be such a good place to be and being able to quickly change income streams may not be such a bad idea. If you leave Engineering, or any other professional field for that matter, for any length of time, you may find that getting back in is extremely difficult, if not impossible.

What ever you decide, the best of luck to you.

[Kai]

If you lost all your trading experience, would you start from the beginning in 2020 or do you think it is too late and would you do something else?

Do you consider yourself to be a fast learner in general? If so, then you can start whenever you want really. Otherwise having a day job to relieve some of the pressure is not the worst idea in the world since it will probably take a while.

Not much point in asking others since everyone is very different and has different circumstances etc, don't think there is much generalized advice that you can apply to yourself. In my case the answer to the above question is an emphatic yes, what helped me make this decision is my inner arrogance/confidence that I can make anything 100% work if I give it a serious enough go, because a part of me is a cocky little s**t

That same part of me turned down a cushy IT job at a government-owned corporation that my family had lined up for me in order to pursue trading, the sort of boring job that most people where I live crave because you're sort of set for life and they called me nuts as well, but I think they're the ones that are nuts for wanting an average life in the first place. It ultimately boils down to my arrogance/pride or however you want to call it, to the the fact that I didn't really want to work/slave for anyone else other than myself, at my age I only want to invest in myself, because a large chunk of the skillset that you naturally develop through trading can last you a lifetime, and all the wisdom that you acquire from it just seems to spill over into all the other aspects of your life and enriches it in more ways than one.

[ruthlessimon]

If you lost all your trading experience, would you start from the beginning in 2020 or do you think it is too late and would you do something else?

I have been trading pre-race for almost 18 months and I have had many false starts however my results are starting to turn to the point of being green at the end of the week. For me, it may be another 3, 6, or 12 months, but I feel it coming

So would you start trading in 2020 or is it too late?

Yes I would. Interestingly, I like thinking about this - albeit it's quite depressing. If I could go back 3yrs, what would I do differently (albeit this is tied directly to my style of trading).

First, I'd need to understand supply & demand like the back of my hand. What is a market? How does price move? What's the relationship between price, volume & fair value?

Then I'd need to test a core strategy. & this is where I differ from most. For me, that'd mean building a "simulator". I need to replicate the ladders as accurately as possible, I need to make sure the market is biased longterm before I jump in. I'm a believer that if that work isn't done, & we only "think" we have edge, this is where your money goes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Lightwing). Cos remember only 0.5% of all accounts pay PC...

Now creating that simulator is gonna be hard. The collection of the required data, testing/analysing the strategies on that sim is gonna be difficult. But the silver lining, it creates a barrier to entry (also it means you don't need to quit your job! massive +), it's something others don't have. & we only need to be seconds ahead of the market to make money.

Unfortunately though, there's a still lot of luck involved. & the way to genuinely progress fast, is mentorship, & be lucky enough for a trader years & years ahead to say something with objective value, & it clicks. The problem is, once they're past the thrill of becoming profitable, they go very very quiet & are very hard to find.

[alexmr2]

I'm not an Engineer but I've worked for the odd engineering company, though not as an Engineer I may add. From my experience, Engineers are not as well rewarded or regarded in this country as they ought to be and as they are in some other countries. With your expertise and qualifications, I'd be looking to work abroad or even emigrate.

I agree based on my own experience. I have also looked into this before and in the UK professional engineers may earn 2x or 3x minimum wage (at bigger companies) if they are lucky compared to the USA where they may earn up to something like 12x minimum wage. I know there are lots of factors like healthcare, education debts etc. but overall the UK is not rewarding for the stress and responsibility. It's quite sad really that the level of knowledge required is not as financially rewarding as say a lawyer, dentist, doctor or financial position.

[alexmr2]

Not much point in asking others since everyone is very different and has different circumstances etc, don't think there is much generalized advice that you can apply to yourself. In my case the answer to the above question is an emphatic yes, what helped me make this decision is my inner arrogance/confidence that I can make anything 100% work if I give it a serious enough go, because a part of me is a cocky little s**t

That same part of me turned down a cushy IT job at a government-owned corporation that my family had lined up for me in order to pursue trading, the sort of boring job that most people where I live crave because you're sort of set for life and they called me nuts as well, but I think they're the ones that are nuts for wanting an average life in the first place. It ultimately boils down to my arrogance/pride or however you want to call it, to the the fact that I didn't really want to work/slave for anyone else other than myself, at my age I only want to invest in myself, because a large chunk of the skillset that you naturally develop through trading can last you a lifetime, and all the wisdom that you acquire from it just seems to spill over into all the other aspects of your life and enriches it in more ways than one.

Good to see you would do it all over again as I've saw some excellents post from you on this forum before. I can relate to a lot of what you have said there too