Betting on "unders" on teams who have nothing to play for?

[Alexander_99]

As the end of football season draws nearer, I am wondering if there's any value on betting / trading inplay on "under" goals market when teams who have nothing to play for are involved? I am guessing this especially could apply to mid table teams in second divisions (like Italian Serie B) who are safe from relegation but don't really have much of a chance of getting promoted.

Is there any evidence to support or discredit this theory?

[stueytrader]

Possible to argue either way - defences getting sloppy too possible?

[Kai]

I don't keep such stats but if somebody does I don't think they would share any of it.

That being said, you don't really need end of the season scenarios to find situations where there is no genuine incentive to score or win, they also happen in knockout competitions and in league games where the result has already been decided and pretty much accepted by both teams and when the game enters the management phase, but they still have to play for the full 90.

So yeah, overall I think there is value here in general, you obviously see that reflected in some weird prices at the end of the season, but not really during the season or during a game.

[ShaunWhite]

I don't think there's any matches where there's absolutely nothing to play for. I don't know about other leagues but each position up the Premiership is worth about £2m, and then there's the players' personal stats that go a long way towards their worth if the move or want to negotiate a wage next year. Pride is an issue too even though most players might just be considered to be journeymen these days. There's nothing to play for in a 5-a-side match after work but you still kick ten shades of you-know-what out of each other.

[rik]

there are generally a lot more goals on matchday 38 when a lot of teams dont have much to play for arent there

[Alexander_99]

Thanks for everyone's replies.