Cheltenham 2020

[Hepburn]

You can buy a covid-19 test kit, in stock tomorrow. https://www.clearchemist.co.uk/covid-test-kit.html

on this who q&a page ( symptoms bit ) it says 1 in 6 people become seriously ill. https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detai ... onaviruses

[Kai]

I noticed South Korea's low mortality rate (0.7 when i last looked). I wondered about that. Is it superior modus operandi? Or a generally healthier population?

Looks pretty clear to me that they as a country had by far the best reaction, the only reason why they had so many cases right away is because of their aggressive and fast testing, their test numbers below are ridiculous, that's how you do it. Early detection generally means the virus doesn't usually get to the advanced more dangerous phase. The numbers that most other countries give out are probably much greater in reality, a lot of countries like USA avoid testing with the typical economy>people approach. Most of western Europe and UK seems to fall under this category as well. I actually think USA could suffer more than the poor regions because of their abysmal healthcare system, people can't afford getting treated and will actively avoid it, thus spreading the virus even more so. Some of the poor families would probably take their chances with the virus rather than risk getting bankrupt to medical bills etc, we in Europe don't have this issue but it's a big one for them.

[Hepburn]

I noticed South Korea's low mortality rate (0.7 when i last looked). I wondered about that. Is it superior modus operandi? Or a generally healthier population?

Looks pretty clear to me that they as a country had by far the best reaction, the only reason why they had so many cases right away is because of their aggressive and fast testing, their test numbers below are ridiculous, that's how you do it. Early detection generally means the virus doesn't usually get to the advanced more dangerous phase. The numbers that most other countries give out are probably much greater in reality, a lot of countries like USA avoid testing with the typical economy>people approach. Most of western Europe and UK seems to fall under this category as well. I actually think USA could suffer more than the poor regions because of their abysmal healthcare system, people can't afford getting treated and will actively avoid it, thus spreading the virus even more so. Some of the poor families would probably take their chances with the virus rather than risk getting bankrupt to medical bills etc, we in Europe don't have this issue but it's a big one for them.

those are just test figures There no info regarding CFR case fatility rate there.

[Kai]

those are just test figures There no info regarding CFR case fatility rate there.

Yep, like Greenmark mentioned it's 0.7% for South Korea. Globally, it's 3.4% according to WHO as of March 3. Wuhan in China had it higher at 5.8%, they said it was because they lacked proper resources for the critical cases.



USA doesn't surprise me for the above-mentioned reasons, the milder cases probably go massively unreported so they catch more of the serious cases, and by the time they do that it may already be a bit late for some patients, unlike South Korea that catch everything as early as possible with the help of aggressive proactive testing. These numbers point the obvious as well, that they've been doing it the right way. Italy were caught totally unprepared but they could have a different strain of the virus, time will tell.

[Naffman]

1.28 to go ahead - seems a bit big considering we are a day out

[Kai]

1.28 to go ahead - seems a bit big considering we are a day out

But there's no money all the way down to 1.13?

[Derek27]

Lay it and then phone the police, tell them there's a bomb in the grandstand.

[sionascaig]

Been told it because we have moved to delay phase but haven't seen it on news yet... Carnage in Japan & HK markets. And oil price down 30%.

[wearthefoxhat]

1.28 to go ahead - seems a bit big considering we are a day out

But there's no money all the way down to 1.13?

Probably some profit taking, spread thinly. There is another meet up today to discuss what to do when they go to delay stage. (sports events included) - Anything is possible of course...

Also, the stock markets will probably drop up to 5% today.

The government have been allowing the sports bodies to decide and prepare using their own powers, and are reluctant (for now) to make the big decisions, until they have no choice.

They seem to be concerned (rightly/wrongly,) not to cause unnecessary panic within the economy. Re-horse racing, if Cheltenham got cancelled, then, even allowing for the one off big attendances, the whole industry will get locked down eventually.

Of course there's greyhound racing...no one seems to attend those meetings anymore, but the tracks are funded by the bookmakers to run for their own purposes. So racing behind closed doors, 140+ markets a days, will help trading....

[wearthefoxhat]

Been told it because we have moved to delay phase but haven't seen it on news yet... Carnage in Japan & HK markets. And oil price down 30%.

Delay stage not quite there yet (just a question of when though).

Yep, markets to get smashed again, especially the Dow Jones. Will create buying opportunities later on as long as you have some cash left to invest/gamble.

[wearthefoxhat]

FTSE 100 down 8.80% within 10 minutes....(oil price factored in)

Dow Jones opens @ 9.30am.... (2.30pm GMT)

[Euler]

We should probably move this to the four horsemen thread.

[Euler]

Case confirmed in Cheltenham town centre.

[wearthefoxhat]

We should probably move this to the four horsemen thread.

Too late, they're here....looks like a line up for the first at Cheltenham...

fourhorsemen.png

[wearthefoxhat]

Case confirmed in Cheltenham town centre.

Read that yesterday. Didn't want to post it up as Bojo might see it and influence todays' Cobra meeting....