Cheltenham 2020
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AlexisMartin
- Posts: 60
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:26 pm
I'd imagine its relativly simpler making your mind up which markets to trade if your trading in 2000 lot clip sizes, in which case cheltenham is great, but if you trade in 20 lot clips you still have to look at other markets! and take the added risk of running each trade for at least 6/7 tics!
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
It rained last night for about 3.5 hours and again this morning from 06:00 to around 07:45. I walked the course on Sunday morning, and it was like a bog in places. I found it infuriating when they dared to mention Good/Soft or Soft. They quickly changed after the first race when jockeys reported testing ground and TV showed prints going in four inches!
We currently have sunny spells and a drying wind mixed with showers.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I find it strange because the stats are against Faugheenn. I was chatting with someone this morning, and it seems 12-year-olds in Cheltenham Festival grade 1 races have not beaten a horse home in the last 100 attempts. I do not have the actual stat to hand but will try and get it for you. I was correct when telling him Moscow Flyer was the last horse to win a Grade 1 aged 11. Please, don't quote me on the exact stat, I need to see it in writing.
If he wins, I will cheer him, but I could not bet him. I wonder if the price drift will come when people start talking about the stats.
Surprised there isn't a market about Friday going ahead. I would think it has to be odds on that it doesn't.
Ireland have said all gatherings outside of 500 people or more should be cancelled, indoor gatherings of 100 or more people should be cancelled so that would be Cheltenham off if it were in Ireland unless some how it can be run behind closed doors.
"Mr Varadkar said schools, colleges and childcare facilities will close"
"Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Leo Varadkar said the measures would take effect from 18:00 on Thursday to 29 March."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811
Edit: Just saw Betfair have put up a market for Gold Cup day going ahead or not.
Ireland have said all gatherings outside of 500 people or more should be cancelled, indoor gatherings of 100 or more people should be cancelled so that would be Cheltenham off if it were in Ireland unless some how it can be run behind closed doors.
"Mr Varadkar said schools, colleges and childcare facilities will close"
"Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Leo Varadkar said the measures would take effect from 18:00 on Thursday to 29 March."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811
Edit: Just saw Betfair have put up a market for Gold Cup day going ahead or not.
Racing Ireland response should have an impact on the GN marketPDC wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:56 amSurprised there isn't a market about Friday going ahead. I would think it has to be odds on that it doesn't.
Ireland have said all gatherings outside of 500 people or more should be cancelled, indoor gatherings of 100 or more people should be cancelled so that would be Cheltenham off if it were in Ireland unless some how it can be run behind closed doors.
"Mr Varadkar said schools, colleges and childcare facilities will close"
"Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Leo Varadkar said the measures would take effect from 18:00 on Thursday to 29 March."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811
Edit: Just saw Betfair have put up a market for Gold Cup day going ahead or not.
It's interesting when you look back at historic results, 10-12-year-old winners were quite frequent a long time ago when racing was less competitive, but now it's a near impossible task.JollyGreen wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:13 amI find it strange because the stats are against Faugheenn. I was chatting with someone this morning, and it seems 12-year-olds in Cheltenham Festival grade 1 races have not beaten a horse home in the last 100 attempts. I do not have the actual stat to hand but will try and get it for you. I was correct when telling him Moscow Flyer was the last horse to win a Grade 1 aged 11. Please, don't quote me on the exact stat, I need to see it in writing.
If he wins, I will cheer him, but I could not bet him. I wonder if the price drift will come when people start talking about the stats.
Think that's why Shishkin drifted so badly because lto winners at Huntingdon have a terrible record tooDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 pmIt's interesting when you look back at historic results, 10-12-year-old winners were quite frequent a long time ago when racing was less competitive, but now it's a near impossible task.JollyGreen wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:13 amI find it strange because the stats are against Faugheenn. I was chatting with someone this morning, and it seems 12-year-olds in Cheltenham Festival grade 1 races have not beaten a horse home in the last 100 attempts. I do not have the actual stat to hand but will try and get it for you. I was correct when telling him Moscow Flyer was the last horse to win a Grade 1 aged 11. Please, don't quote me on the exact stat, I need to see it in writing.
If he wins, I will cheer him, but I could not bet him. I wonder if the price drift will come when people start talking about the stats.
Correct, had a look at he data since 2010, and there are 37 runners that fall into those parameters and not a single winner:JollyGreen wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:13 amI find it strange because the stats are against Faugheenn. I was chatting with someone this morning, and it seems 12-year-olds in Cheltenham Festival grade 1 races have not beaten a horse home in the last 100 attempts. I do not have the actual stat to hand but will try and get it for you. I was correct when telling him Moscow Flyer was the last horse to win a Grade 1 aged 11. Please, don't quote me on the exact stat, I need to see it in writing.
If he wins, I will cheer him, but I could not bet him. I wonder if the price drift will come when people start talking about the stats.
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