Crazyskier wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:54 pmThere were 5 races 13.31 onwards where every single race but one was won by a crazy 12+ price, with some being 30s!
I know several guys that lay the outsiders and use loss recovery and for sure they would have been very, very burnt there. In 2 races, the winners prices to PLACE was 10+ !! Insane.
CS
More outlandish than that, like seeing 40s matched on several runner in the same race for £66 many minutes out.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:54 pmThere were 5 races 13.31 onwards where every single race but one was won by a crazy 12+ price, with some being 30s!
I know several guys that lay the outsiders and use loss recovery and for sure they would have been very, very burnt there. In 2 races, the winners prices to PLACE was 10+ !! Insane.
CS
Can you give an example SB?
If I'm matched at 7.00 and dog steam to 5.00 BSP, it's good value worth holding onto? How about only 6.00 BSP?
If you look at the data then you'll see that over a very large sample BSP is sort of, just about, near enough, right. So you're not gaining anything by closing at BSP vs letting it run except for a less volatile balance on a 'typical' dog. The additional trick SB and others might be pulling off re value, is identifing where BSP isn't correct for that specific runner, and then making a judgement about whether closing or running is better.
I have always been closing trades at the 45 second mark. But even then i noticed one last week that suspended at the 60 second mark and never got unsuspended again. Luckily my bot had ignored that race. Which was a bug on my part.
Morning ShaunShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:10 amIf you look at the data then you'll see that over a very large sample BSP is sort of, just about, near enough, right. So you're not gaining anything by closing at BSP vs letting it run except for a less volatile balance on a 'typical' dog. The additional trick SB and others might be pulling off re value, is identifing where BSP isn't correct for that specific runner, and then making a judgement about whether closing or running is better.
such as Bernoulli; Sampling, Hypothesis testing, Regression etc, worth looking at as a refresher. More strings to your bow as they say... 
I quite fancy doing another Udemy course (I learned c# on there) and stats is something I feel especially weak on yet it's such a fundamental part of almost everything we do. Nice idea, thanks.Cheers Shaun, nice explanation about the thinking behind the odds.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:10 amIf you look at the data then you'll see that over a very large sample BSP is sort of, just about, near enough, right. So you're not gaining anything by closing at BSP vs letting it run except for a less volatile balance on a 'typical' dog. The additional trick SB and others might be pulling off re value, is identifing where BSP isn't correct for that specific runner, and then making a judgement about whether closing or running is better.
As with all trading, you need to find, or develop the skills to make a reasonably accurate assessment of fair value both in the moment and for a given point in the future. You ask if 5.00 or 6.00 would be fair value, well maybe you could look at how the market traded and come to a conclusion? Ask yourself questions like, where did most of the money change hands, and when, and where was the VPOC or VWAP and how did they move? A fair price might have been 5.00 or 6.00, or it could have been 4.00 or 9.00. Or it could have been the 7.00 you entered at. Finding the answer to what a fair price is is the most challenging thing in trading imo and would fill a book rather than a posting, and it's also the knowledge that unlocks the profits so it's unlikely you'll be given or stumble across the answer. Tbh the answer could take several days to fully explain and years to master the realtime execution. Guys like SB didn't get as good as they are without 000s of hours thinking about stuff like that and finding a solution that works and works for their style of trading. Every trader probably has their own slightly different way of doing it depending on the tech they use and their own style of execution, what works for one might not work for someone else.
I'm sure SB will correct me if I've made any wildly inaccurate assumptions about him being able to assess fair value for a specific selection/market to boost his pre-race position.
no need to feel sorry for me, BUT, my wife is a teacher and will be around most of the time between now and end of august. she is an amazing motivator, so not sure how much *development* time i'm likely to get over the next few weeks (months!!
) - lol
