Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[marketraisen]

46 UK deaths today, been stable for the last three days not the upward curve of Italy

I dont mean to sound cold but even if these numbers were all multiplied by 1000, the decision to completely obliterate whatever pretend economy we've been living with this past couple of generations would still be highly questionable.

What we've done to ourselves already and what the rest of Europe has done to themselves is absolutely mental, we've printed enough money and plan to borrow enough more to devalue every pound any of us have ever earned in our lives into the gutter.

Doing a quick google search brings up past winters and in the 2018-2019 winter fly season 150,000 people died in the EU, most of whom sharing a similar profile to those who are dying now in that their immune systems are already suppressed with existing illness.

[marketraisen]

figures I could find from the USA 18-19.

"Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. "

[ShaunWhite]

https://envirofluid.com/articles/tetrac ... e-cleaner/
"The chemical has been linked to oesophagal cancer, cervical cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma."
S'all going a bit bonkers.

Was only half joking. I'm not sure how many cases of cervical cancer have been caused by brake cleaner

[ShaunWhite]

figures I could find from the USA 18-19.

"Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. "

You're not comparing like with like, although 'only' 2% of CV patients die, at least 10% require an ICU, that means without sufficient ICUs the toll would be iro 10%. That would put your flu numbers in the shade with deaths potentially in the millions and bodies being moved by the lorry load. Numbers will only stay low if the spread is radically slowed down and kept within our ability to save lives which would otherwise be lost.

[superfrank]

It's SARS, not flu. Chalk and cheese.

[wearthefoxhat]

"The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation at 20:30 GMT tonight."
Somehow, I don't think this is going to be good news.
Lockdown? Whatever that means.
Police/Soldiers on the street querying your reasons for being out and about?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZwMX6T5Jhk

[marketraisen]

You're not comparing like with like

You're right apparently I'm not, a hell of a lot more people die during a normal flu season.

Perhaps if we rolled back the global economy 25 years every winter would finally get a grip of these sick people dying. Even today Italy, the UK and Germany have all had a DECREASE in the number of fatalities from previous days, this is a disease that takes more than a couple of days to take route and kill the host so none of the suicidal preventative measures that have been taken have had an impact on those numbers.

The real damage from this 'pandemic' has already been done and the final toll wont be measured in lives lost, itll be measured in how much the economy has retracted and unlike in 2008, it isnt the pretend financial market version of the economy thats suffered but the real one that we need to function in the world at levels that arent impoverished.

Part of me is horrified and another increasingly influential part is totally apathetic to the whole thing, if we really are an entire world of jittery terrified beings who can be so easily manipulated then we deserve another great depression.

[ShaunWhite]

Numbers will only decrease while and because strict measures are in place. If you want to lift the lid on a virus with a 10% mortality rate (if untreated) and an R value over 2.0 because of money then that's your prerogative. Thankfully those who know what they're talking about don't agree with you.

[Emmson]

I still believe in experts.

[greenmark]

You're not comparing like with like

You're right apparently I'm not, a hell of a lot more people die during a normal flu season.

Perhaps if we rolled back the global economy 25 years every winter would finally get a grip of these sick people dying. Even today Italy, the UK and Germany have all had a DECREASE in the number of fatalities from previous days, this is a disease that takes more than a couple of days to take route and kill the host so none of the suicidal preventative measures that have been taken have had an impact on those numbers.

The real damage from this 'pandemic' has already been done and the final toll wont be measured in lives lost, itll be measured in how much the economy has retracted and unlike in 2008, it isnt the pretend financial market version of the economy thats suffered but the real one that we need to function in the world at levels that arent impoverished.

Part of me is horrified and another increasingly influential part is totally apathetic to the whole thing, if we really are an entire world of jittery terrified beings who can be so easily manipulated then we deserve another great depression.

Can't let that go. This is not flu. There is no immunity in the global community. Without serious measures it will sweep through. The figures are so consistent how can you argue? Believe me I dont want the worst case scenario, but there seem to be people that are either oblivious or assume they won't be hospitalised or maybe believe they are doing a good thing by going out there, getting infected and building herd immunity (but I kind of doubt that).
We all have a huge responsibility to take the pressure off frontline workers.

[marketraisen]

Numbers will only decrease while and because strict measures are in place. If you want to lift the lid on a virus with a 10% mortality rate (if untreated) and an R value over 2.0 because of money then that's your prerogative. Thankfully those who know what they're talking about don't agree with you.

Where are you getting your figures from? 10% mortality?

3700 people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship if you can remember the news from a few weeks ago, quarantined for 2 weeks offshore, 700 confirmed cases on board, average age of passengers was 58. It was basically the perfect mice in a lab experiment box.
How many died and how old were they?
The death toll has only just NOW reached 9, all of them 70+.

My anger isnt that people have panicked too early, if anything they panicked too late, in the early days back in January nobody had any idea what was going to happen and nobody reacted accordingly. My anger is the response now, weeks too late and at a scale where we have totally decimated the real economy (have to emphasise again I'm aware theres 2 economies in the world, the digital financial one and the actual one that dictates how much we are paid and how much things cost), what we've done is the equivalent of cutting our legs off and slashing the tires on our own wheelchair for the sake of an ingrown toenail.

And I'm angry how quickly the population forced the hands of governments everywhere into sanctioning the moves that we are seeing now. Why? To get a couple of weeks off work? Theres no going back to 'normal' after this.

[marketraisen]

Can't let that go. This is not flu. There is no immunity in the global community. Without serious measures it will sweep through.

Nobody is suggesting serious measures, is there a single country in the west prepared for the length of time required to wait until everyone catches it slowly enough that we barely notice it?
The people saying we have to shut everything down to protect front line workers right now seem to be premising that advice on it just taking a few weeks, if you want to quarantine the population to slow the strains from spreading around you would need to be prepared for 12 months, right through to 2021 and skipping next years flu season. A 2 week holiday isnt going to kill any virus or we would be doing it all the time to stop the normal spread of other illnesses.

and besides, these front line workers work in hospitals, theyre already exposed to viruses and all sorts of foul diseases daily, they take precautions as it is and they generally have long careers despite the exposure.

Either I am underestimating the severity of this virus or you guys are underestimating what would be involved in genuinely stopping its spread with an inactive population, you either go long with the quarantine or you dont do one at all.

[Derek27]

Either I am underestimating the severity of this virus or you guys are underestimating what would be involved in genuinely stopping its spread with an inactive population, you either go long with the quarantine or you dont do one at all.

You're talking in sheer ignorance. The reasons why a long quarantine wouldn't work has been fully explained in the media. I'd rather trust the scientists who have the expertise and put in a lot of work into the crisis than take advice from somebody talking off the top of his head.

[superfrank]

Either I am underestimating the severity of this virus or you guys are underestimating what would be involved in genuinely stopping its spread with an inactive population, you either go long with the quarantine or you dont do one at all.

You're underestimating it. You keep comparing it to flu but that's a nonsense. I do agree that we should have erred on the side of caution earlier (as the likes of Singapore did).

It will likely take an extended lockdown and a medical breakthrough on either treatment or vaccination to defeat this thing.

[wearthefoxhat]

Things are getting serious....

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