Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Archery1969]

Deaths today in uk currently stands at 47.

Have you a reference for that?
Only thing I found was
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... r-of-cases.

Was verbally announced on News Night.

[Archery1969]

Deaths today in uk currently stands at 47.

Have you a reference for that?
Only thing I found was
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... r-of-cases.

Was verbally announced on News Night.

This morning they said total deaths was 422 but if you watch this realtime graph it stands at 465.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

[greenmark]

Have you a reference for that?
Only thing I found was
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... r-of-cases.

Was verbally announced on News Night.

This morning they said total deaths was 422 but if you watch this realtime graph it stands at 465.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

Ok thanks for that.
Tbh I'm obsessing over the figures. Looking for a positive of any kind over a number of days.
Not seen anything yet, apart from doubling of confirmed cases has moved up from 3 to 4 days, so maybe thats a trend.
But perhaps the stronger advice will start to have a bigger impact over the next few days.
Locally where I am the confirmed cases have jumped up. And given the behaviour I witnessed over the last week I'm not surprised.
But the penny seems to have dropped now, so we'll see.

[Archery1969]

Was verbally announced on News Night.

This morning they said total deaths was 422 but if you watch this realtime graph it stands at 465.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

Ok thanks for that.
Tbh I'm obsessing over the figures. Looking for a positive of any kind over a number of days.
Not seen anything yet, apart from doubling of confirmed cases has moved up from 3 to 4 days, so maybe thats a trend.
But perhaps the stronger advice will start to have a bigger impact over the next few days.
Locally where I am the confirmed cases have jumped up. And given the behaviour I witnessed over the last week I'm not surprised.
But the penny seems to have dropped now, so we'll see.

They need to introduce full lock down now. Only key workers going to work. Everyone else to stay at home. Italy and Spain left it too late before they did that and are paying a heavier price than they needed too.

[Derek27]

It takes about a week from first symptoms to being severely ill. So I'd guess actual infection to death could be 2 to 3 weeks. Therefore the lockdown that started on Monday will take a while to affect the daily death rates.

[alexmr2]

477,000 applications for Universal credit in last 9 day. A Universal Basic Income must be on the cards and hopefully it'll stay in place. Makes sense on every level and should have been the way fwd instead of the Universal Credit white elephant which was just a tweek and a rebrand.

Universal Credit is unbelievably useless and inefficient, it seems to waste more money than it does good.

In my experience on it they gave me a "personal advisor" who was absolutely useless at knowing anything about my field and they also sent me on courses of basic skills each week despite me having a Master's degree, whilst people more needing of these courses never turned up to them. The point is that these were both from a private company who charge the government thousands per person per year to provide "help" (what a waste).

My mum worked for 30+ years, hurt her back badly from work, got a X-ray and back condition diagnosis and it will get worse if she goes back to work but she isn't entitled to a penny because my dad has just taken his pension package while he could, which is an absolute pittance and barely enough to support himself never mind her too (if he never bothered to save a pension he'd probably get the same in benefits anyway).

I was working as a graduate engineer but I knew several people with no qualifications who were basically taking home the same money as me afer working all week. Some were getting higher rates of ESA or PIP for being good actors and they were able to afford holidays, a car etc. Why can't it just pay bills and the necessities without giving certain people so much disposable income?


Based on my experience of the private company payouts and a few other things with getting rid of some unnecessary staff and expensive digital systems, Universal Basic Income might just be a good idea to at least trial. IMO it would rely on people having an incentive to go out and find an income if they want to have anything more than the essentials to get by. As an intermediate trader struggling to become profitable Universal Credit is a huge headache as obviously you won't get anywhere telling them you plan to trade bets for a living.

[GaryCook]

Personally I feel it's an opportunity, itll all be forgotten about in 12 months time & we can all get back to reading and listening to people hate each other again...

If I had any idea how to go about it or indeed what the hell I was doing, I think I'd be buying some of the panic.

I hate to say it but governments will likely milk it for all its worth.
There guarantee we wont get another wave of the virus. Or even a mutation.
The short traders must be having a whale of a time.

Plus the economy is in strange shape. It was before the virus hit.
"Banning cash so you pay the bank to hold your money is what the IMF wants"
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/persona ... ar-AAGjopy

[GaryCook]

477,000 applications for Universal credit in last 9 day. A Universal Basic Income must be on the cards and hopefully it'll stay in place. Makes sense on every level and should have been the way fwd instead of the Universal Credit white elephant which was just a tweek and a rebrand.

Universal Credit is unbelievably useless and inefficient, it seems to waste more money than it does good.

In my experience on it they gave me a "personal advisor" who was absolutely useless at knowing anything about my field and they also sent me on courses of basic skills each week despite me having a Master's degree, whilst people more needing of these courses never turned up to them. The point is that these were both from a private company who charge the government thousands per person per year to provide "help" (what a waste).

My mum worked for 30+ years, hurt her back badly from work, got a X-ray and back condition diagnosis and it will get worse if she goes back to work but she isn't entitled to a penny because my dad has just taken his pension package while he could, which is an absolute pittance and barely enough to support himself never mind her too (if he never bothered to save a pension he'd probably get the same in benefits anyway).

I was working as a graduate engineer but I knew several people with no qualifications who were basically taking home the same money as me afer working all week. Some were getting higher rates of ESA or PIP for being good actors and they were able to afford holidays, a car etc. Why can't it just pay bills and the necessities without giving certain people so much disposable income?


Based on my experience of the private company payouts and a few other things with getting rid of some unnecessary staff and expensive digital systems, Universal Basic Income might just be a good idea to at least trial. IMO it would rely on people having an incentive to go out and find an income if they want to have anything more than the essentials to get by. As an intermediate trader struggling to become profitable Universal Credit is a huge headache as obviously you won't get anywhere telling them you plan to trade bets for a living.

The risk with UBI is that it could cause inflation. Its not so good getting a grand a month if a loaf of bread costs £500. People may cite countries where it has been trialled as a success but its early days and also not big enough yet to affect economies.
Judging by the American CARES bailout going through, it almost seems like a bribe to keep people quiet when they are printing more funny money than ever for the banks. Calling it the first bailout of mainstreet seems a bit deceptive to me when the banks also get a lot more money than before for 'free'.

[PDC]

A glimmer of light?
Coronavirus: NHS capacity 'won't be breached at national level'.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615

Maybe the most positive report to date

The issue with this is that on a National Level it won't be because not all areas are experiencing the issues at the same rate. London at the moment is coming under increased strain and will no doubt be the first at breaking point but while London is at breaking point there will be spare capacity in other area of the country. That isn't much use to people in London. Then it would appear London will quieten down while others areas reach capacity. Great for London but not great for the people in the north now at capacity.

If they went a bit earlier they'd of keep the positive cases lower but unless it was a long lockdown then we'd likely see a spike as soon as it was lifted and either need another lockdown or risk being over capcity then

Unless this test that shows if you have had it comes through I can't see how it can't be a very long lockdown. Even if this test does come through, The current 3.5 million tests purchased aren't going to go very far. The NHS workers will use almost half of them up. Then there are the other key infrastructure workers. Your man in the street is not going to be able to get their hands on one for some time I suspect.

The three week lock down that a lot of people seem to think is all we will have, I am not saying that's what you meant Dallas, I think are going to be surprised when the lock down has to remain in place for at least another few weeks.

Hopefully I am wrong but I can't see how the current 3 weeks is anywhere near long enough given the period of time it takes for it to filter through to NHS capacity. The fact the Government are bothering to order 10,000 odd ventilators from Dyson who say it will be well into April before they are made seems odd if things are going to be back to "normal" in less than 3 weeks, likewise building the Excel center into a hospital and soon to do the same at the NEC, if things can go back to normal in 2 - 3 weeks, there would be no need for these measures as they won't come online before that 2 -3 weeks to such an extent to have much of an impact.

So I think the Government is fairly sure things are a long way off from getting back to normal.

[jimibt]

A glimmer of light?
Coronavirus: NHS capacity 'won't be breached at national level'.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615

Maybe the most positive report to date

The issue with this is that on a National Level it won't be because not all areas are experiencing the issues at the same rate. London at the moment is coming under increased strain and will no doubt be the first at breaking point but while London is at breaking point there will be spare capacity in other area of the country. That isn't much use to people in London. Then it would appear London will quieten down while others areas reach capacity. Great for London but not great for the people in the north now at capacity.

If they went a bit earlier they'd of keep the positive cases lower but unless it was a long lockdown then we'd likely see a spike as soon as it was lifted and either need another lockdown or risk being over capcity then

Unless this test that shows if you have had it comes through I can't see how it can't be a very long lockdown. Even if this test does come through, The current 3.5 million tests purchased aren't going to go very far. The NHS workers will use almost half of them up. Then there are the other key infrastructure workers. Your man in the street is not going to be able to get their hands on one for some time I suspect.

The three week lock down that a lot of people seem to think is all we will have, I am not saying that's what you meant Dallas, I think are going to be surprised when the lock down has to remain in place for at least another few weeks.

Hopefully I am wrong but I can't see how the current 3 weeks is anywhere near long enough given the period of time it takes for it to filter through to NHS capacity. The fact the Government are bothering to order 10,000 odd ventilators from Dyson who say it will be well into April before they are made seems odd if things are going to be back to "normal" in less than 3 weeks, likewise building the Excel center into a hospital and soon to do the same at the NEC, if things can go back to normal in 2 - 3 weeks, there would be no need for these measures as they won't come online before that 2 -3 weeks to such an extent to have much of an impact.

So I think the Government is fairly sure things are a long way off from getting back to normal.

+1 on all of the above. to add my tuppence worth. i think that the current *soft* lockdown is a way to prepare the uk for a *hard* lockdown that could last for 6-8 weeks. in that case, it may be that there has to be some sort of online facility or notofication that says that you as an individual are allowed out on a given day for a given number of minutes. of course, not everyone has the commonplace tech to make this approach 100% viable, but it is a possibility and one that would allow for close monitoring of movement. this is not a measure that i would relish but given the evidence on our inability to follow simple lifesaving rules, it seems reasonable (for the duration of the crisis).

yup -a sad day when liberal choice gives way to pragmatic conservatism!!

[weemac]

Looking at the Johns Hopkins CV dashboard, the scariest looking visual trajectories of daily new cases are the US, Spain and the UK. In Italy, you need documentation to leave the house. In India, the police are beating people in the streets with batons. But here it seems too many people have been, and stll are, far too laid back, including our so-called leaders. I'm not at all optimistic about the mid to long term outlook.

[PDC]

think that the current *soft* lockdown is a way to prepare the uk for a *hard* lockdown that could last for 6-8 weeks. in that case, it may be that there has to be some sort of online facility or notofication that says that you as an individual are allowed out on a given day for a given number of minutes.

I personally don't see it getting to that stage in the UK. If it was needed it would need to be brought in soon. They need to allow some level of infection and critical cases now so as to move some forward from the peak and push some back from the peak. But the effect of all these measures is to lead to a lower peak but that peak will last longer, in turn, the measures of "lockdown" will need to be in place longer. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a further tightening of the lock down but I don't see it getting to China type levels where we are being monitored.

I can see in bigger cities why more lockdown could be needed but out in the more rural areas life if going on fine to be honest. People round my area for example are enjoying their gardens, doing work in them, cleaning their cars, going out for their daily exercise etc and life isn't that hard. People in a tower block in London where the parks are shut and they have no open green spaces are doing it much tougher and will only put up with so much until people start getting restless. It wasn't that long ago London went mad which then spilled out into other areas.

I think UK racing, is wishful thinking that racing is going to return to racing in a couple of weeks or so. I can't believe the likes of Sean Boycee and Mark Johnston thought racing should have continued.

This map from Depart of Health for England demonstrates why National capacity is unlikely to breached:

CV England.png

[PDC]

Looking at the Johns Hopkins CV dashboard, the scariest looking visual trajectories of daily new cases are the US, Spain and the UK.

The best visualisation stuff of trajectories I have seen are being don by the FT. They update them each day and the guy on Twitter from the FT doing a lot of the leg work is open to views and suggestions, worth following him:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[gutuami]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

https://corona.help/

[PDC]

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the ‘normal’ risks faced by people, particularly the elderly and those with chronic health problems who are the main victims of COVID. To provide some background, I’ve had a look at how much ‘normal’ risk COVID seems to represent.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-muc ... 39118e1196