
Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer
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Hopefully this projection from Imperial College is flawed....
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It's not unmitigated so it clearly doesn't pertain to the current situation.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:52 pmHopefully this projection from Imperial College is flawed....
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Been a couple of days since I last posted and I havent seen anything to change my overall thoughts on this being a complete disaster for all of us due to the massive over reaction, if anything we've descended into even more madness with the police sending drones out to film folk walking their dogs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbvWniXcNhA
Personally found the clapping tonight to be cringeworthy, I can appreciate the intention but to me it was just prisoners rattling cups on their cages in support of somebody on death row like in the old movies. We're an entire nation thats been put under house arrest, had this happened in China the news reports here would be tearing them to pieces, at least when China did their lockdown they only did it in the provinces that had a high number of cases with the virus not even reaching their biggest cities. The clapping thing again though, people being asked by the state media to go out and put on a display of support for a branch of government, its North Korea tier, the NHS for years has had a cult following thats impossible to reason with and this 'crisis' has made them even more unquestionable. Even tonight the street-clappers were giving our house some dirty looks and I could see people checking on the twitching curtains, anyone not joining in and not trying to out do each other with whooping or fireworks was glared at, its mob rule.
Me criticising the clapping feels a bit petty as the intention was good and people just like joining in with things but the above comparisons with North Korea were my instinctual reactions, the whole situation just adds to the surreal nature of whats going on out there in response to a virus thats killed less people in the UK than diarrhea this winter.
I'm a libertarian by nature and this mess has only reinforced it, I'm surprised on this board of all places theres so many who are willingly just going with the flow regardless of the scale of loss thats taken place, wouldve assumed that a group of men all trying to beat each other on markets that reward mental dexterity would be more inclined to view all situations with a value/profit/loss balance mindset. I wonder how much of it is people still not coming to terms with whats we've done to ourselves, how many of you still think this will all 'blow over' in a few weeks? Is the confidence you have in the system stemming from a belief that things are going to go 'back to normal'?
You can just re-add the trillions that have been lost, half the country is now going to be living in even more poverty than they already were, with millions more now having to survive on government handouts and the extrapolating effects that will have moving around the economy, this is a situation that will never reverse itself as there will never be a way to re-employ these people. The situation will likely to change the rule book for property ownership as buy-to-let landlords become bogeymen, which will then have consequences for everyone who spent lifetimes viewing their properties as investments or their pensions, its not impossible that banks (the real landlords) losing out will end up becoming public-private partnerships themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbvWniXcNhA
Personally found the clapping tonight to be cringeworthy, I can appreciate the intention but to me it was just prisoners rattling cups on their cages in support of somebody on death row like in the old movies. We're an entire nation thats been put under house arrest, had this happened in China the news reports here would be tearing them to pieces, at least when China did their lockdown they only did it in the provinces that had a high number of cases with the virus not even reaching their biggest cities. The clapping thing again though, people being asked by the state media to go out and put on a display of support for a branch of government, its North Korea tier, the NHS for years has had a cult following thats impossible to reason with and this 'crisis' has made them even more unquestionable. Even tonight the street-clappers were giving our house some dirty looks and I could see people checking on the twitching curtains, anyone not joining in and not trying to out do each other with whooping or fireworks was glared at, its mob rule.
Me criticising the clapping feels a bit petty as the intention was good and people just like joining in with things but the above comparisons with North Korea were my instinctual reactions, the whole situation just adds to the surreal nature of whats going on out there in response to a virus thats killed less people in the UK than diarrhea this winter.
I'm a libertarian by nature and this mess has only reinforced it, I'm surprised on this board of all places theres so many who are willingly just going with the flow regardless of the scale of loss thats taken place, wouldve assumed that a group of men all trying to beat each other on markets that reward mental dexterity would be more inclined to view all situations with a value/profit/loss balance mindset. I wonder how much of it is people still not coming to terms with whats we've done to ourselves, how many of you still think this will all 'blow over' in a few weeks? Is the confidence you have in the system stemming from a belief that things are going to go 'back to normal'?
You can just re-add the trillions that have been lost, half the country is now going to be living in even more poverty than they already were, with millions more now having to survive on government handouts and the extrapolating effects that will have moving around the economy, this is a situation that will never reverse itself as there will never be a way to re-employ these people. The situation will likely to change the rule book for property ownership as buy-to-let landlords become bogeymen, which will then have consequences for everyone who spent lifetimes viewing their properties as investments or their pensions, its not impossible that banks (the real landlords) losing out will end up becoming public-private partnerships themselves.
Last edited by marketraisen on Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Well the guy who wrote it today backtracked and said the UK has enough ICU units already to handle those who need them, the breaching capacity worst case scenario that was imagined came from his work initially.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:52 pmHopefully this projection from Imperial College is flawed....
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Heres a thread retweeted by Elon Musk earlier. The person who made the early prediction, thats cost us trillions and reshaped the entire country, has downgraded his predictions to 20,000 dead total, half of whom wouldve died this year anyway.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:52 pmHopefully this projection from Imperial College is flawed....

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... -predicts/
Last edited by marketraisen on Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The UK has nowhere near enough ICU, testing or tracing capabilities. The only country that did things correctly was South Korea, there curve was flat and remained so and still is.marketraisen wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:05 amWell the guy who wrote it today backtracked and said the UK has enough ICU units already to handle those who need them, the breaching capacity worst case scenario that was imagined came from his work initially.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:52 pmHopefully this projection from Imperial College is flawed....
If the UK had enough ICU then they wouldn’t be converting the Excel Centre and elsewhere. Being portrayed as hospitals is to stop people from panicking which is the correct thing for any government todo. But in a short period of time they will become just morgues.
Western countries are not equipped to deal with such events due to cultural issues and human rights. China locked down with severe penalties including being shot under curfew. South Korea did it by having a culture where they trust the government, had excellent ICU and tracing capabilities using special powers.
The USA and Western Europe will have a huge mortality rate in comparison.
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The only country in the West that has a high death rate is Italy and even that has plateaued as it has ravaged their elderly and those who were already sick quickly. The most likely to die from the virus, those who are already sick, are not increasing in number.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:40 amThe USA and Western Europe will have a huge mortality rate in comparison.
You should contact the world health organisation or Boris, I'm sure theyd love to see your data, the real world numbers are amazingly good news, it means we arent facing the apocalypse.
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You really are flipping thick.marketraisen wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:51 amThe only country in the West that has a high death rate is Italy and even that has plateaued as it has ravaged their elderly and those who were already sick quickly. The most likely to die from the virus, those who are already sick, are not increasing in number.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:40 amThe USA and Western Europe will have a huge mortality rate in comparison.
You should contact the world health organisation or Boris, I'm sure theyd love to see your data, the real world numbers are amazingly good news, it means we arent facing the apocalypse.
Wait for the second wave which is starting to show in Asia and then come back here in 2 months time with your predictions which are based on you accepting what your currently being told.
I hope your not over 65, male and a smoker as you will be stuffed and back of the queue for a ventilator that we haven’t ordered yet.
I don't think it will matter where you are in the queue if the ventilator hasn't been ordered yet.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:00 am........will be stuffed and back of the queue for a ventilator that we haven’t ordered yet.
Meanwhile I'm checking if the hose on my Dyson will fit in the blow end.