Lay odds after a goal

[ClarkKent]

Hi everyone... I am trying to work something out in my head and without any matches it is difficult to do without live data.

Example from a YouTube video: at match time LAYING over 2.5 goals was 1.72, if there is a goal scored at 5' what would you estimate the LAY price to be upon settling?

Also, is there a tool to estimate this type of odds change?

Thank you.

[Kafkaesque]

Hi everyone... I am trying to work something out in my head and without any matches it is difficult to do without live data.

Example from a YouTube video: at match time LAYING over 2.5 goals was 1.72, if there is a goal scored at 5' what would you estimate the LAY price to be upon settling?

Also, is there a tool to estimate this type of odds change?

Thank you.

The short answer is no. I haven't done live over/unders for a while, so take it with a healthy grain of salt, and it would for sure be possible to make a formula for where the price would usually land in the scenario, you set up. But it would still be within a range.

No matter what say or assume 1.72 goes to on average with a goal after five minutes, then you'd still have a number of things to consider before determine the correct price in any specific match. Off the top of my head a likely not complete list could be.

- Was the game more or less open/looking like there would be goals, than a 1.72 pre price would suggest? Price movement prior to the goal should give a hint, if you're used to following over/under live prices.
- Did the favourite or dog score the first goal? If the dog scores first the price will drop more more, than if the fav does. Since the favourite will need to push more for goals and will continue to do so, even if they make it 1-1, in the first scenario. If the fav scores first, the dog will often times keep the same tactics, look to stay in it and only open up late-ish, while the fav will have less urgency.
- How does the team scoring usually respond when getting a lead. Think the difference between a Guardiola and Mourinho team's response.

So yeah, you get an estimate to where the price will land, but if you use a standard formula across the board (if it's because you want to get into the market quickly), then you'll often get picked off without value on your side, by traders having better insight and/or putting more consideration into things like the above.

[Dallas]

Hi everyone... I am trying to work something out in my head and without any matches it is difficult to do without live data.

Example from a YouTube video: at match time LAYING over 2.5 goals was 1.72, if there is a goal scored at 5' what would you estimate the LAY price to be upon settling?

Also, is there a tool to estimate this type of odds change?

Thank you.

Bet Angel Profesional has a tool called 'Soccer Mystic' that will tell you how the odds are predicted to move through time decay and following a goal, see the post below for some examples on how to use the various features in it
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

Or there is a intro video here with several more on the Bet Angel YouTube channel looking at the various options within it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZe0vkk9xIo