Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Ethanol]

A thing that needs to be considered is that no matter what the death figures are once the situation is resolved, the numbers will appear to be "low" compared to worst-case estimates only because the world took epic measures. So anyone who quotes the figures to prove an overreaction is forgetting that they don't know how catastrophic the figures would have been if all governments had ignored the risks and gone with "life as usual". I propose in this scenario the death toll would have been 50 to 100 million.

Also, you can infer from the number of open cases that there will be likely be a minimum of 150,000 deaths in the next month or so. That is, 20% of 760,000. And that figure doesn't take into account any new infections from today (likely to be huge in the coming months), any existing infections which have not yet been diagnosed, or that the death rate percentage for closed cases is increasing day by day.

[spreadbetting]

I think most countries 'epic measures' have simply been in place to ensure health service capacities aren't overrun more than anything else. With no vaccines or cures available most governments will still be looking at herd immunity as the only long term option.

[Kai]

A thing that needs to be considered is that no matter what the death figures are once the situation is resolved, the numbers will appear to be "low" compared to worst-case estimates only because the world took epic measures.

That's pretty much what I wanted to add as well. It's just a shame that we're always a few steps behind with implementing those measures, we very much needed to be proactive instead of reactive but that's easier said than done.

It does seem pointless comparing this virus to other causes of death because the full impact of the pandemic cannot even begin to be measured in black and white numbers like that, since the virus is obviously not only destroying the global economy but is massively affecting our daily lives as well, with probably long lasting social and political repercussions etc. It can also easily be the spark that ignites further political bickering among the superpowers which could lead to warfare.

It's just a massive test for humanity as a whole on many levels. Who knew that our society is so fragile, the virus is doing a great job in exposing and highlighting all of the flaws and taking away many things we take for granted, including the ability to freely breathe. It's almost poetic, but hopefully it makes the world stronger in the long run.

[Dallas]

Slightly concerning our 3 and 5 day MA are now getting higher than Italys were 14 days ago

Covid-19 3&5 Day MA.jpg

[ShaunWhite]

Slightly concerning our 3 and 5 day MA are now getting higher than Italys were 14 days ago

Well when you put Matt Hancock in charge that's a risk you take. He's the only person I know who can look like he's concentrating and not concentrating at the same time. I'm not being political but ffs if he's the best man for the job then we're all fcked.

[jimibt]

Slightly concerning our 3 and 5 day MA are now getting higher than Italys were 14 days ago

Well when you put Matt Hancock in charge that's a risk you take. He's the only person I know who can look like he's concentrating and not concentrating at the same time. I'm not being political but ffs if he's the best man for the job then we're all fcked.

i vote we get either Matt Lucas or Tony Hancock instead!!

[Archery1969]

Slightly concerning our 3 and 5 day MA are now getting higher than Italys were 14 days ago

Well when you put Matt Hancock in charge that's a risk you take. He's the only person I know who can look like he's concentrating and not concentrating at the same time. I'm not being political but ffs if he's the best man for the job then we're all fcked.

i vote we get either Matt Lucas or Tony Hancock instead!!

Roy Chubby Brown ?

[jimibt]

Well when you put Matt Hancock in charge that's a risk you take. He's the only person I know who can look like he's concentrating and not concentrating at the same time. I'm not being political but ffs if he's the best man for the job then we're all fcked.

i vote we get either Matt Lucas or Tony Hancock instead!!

Roy Chubby Brown ?

actually, on a very dis-similar note, watched this again for the 1st time in a few years. Stewart Lee at his genius best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KVO378tjsw

[mobius]

On a totally cynical note - this would be a good feature for the market overview
The good old days:-BEGINNING OF MARCH

BEGINNING OF MARCH.jpg

Beginning of APRIL

jhu confirmed cases.jpg

When there are 10 GeeGees on the card and you've got a drift from 13 out to 27,215 US and China has gone down to 13
(it doesn't show on the second chart but feel free to check it out at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases)
How do the Chinese deal with their palliative care?
Anyways the GeeGees are only 1.01 to a 1000 but it is a neat feature pre-off.
(you turn it on with the double pencil on the top rhs of the graph)

And on a lighter note:

TRUMP STATEMENTS.jpg

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 15576.html
His next job is doing the radio 4 racing tips.

[Tuco]

I'm really looking forward to the next BA update - and I can't wait to be able to put it into action!

[Derek27]

And on a lighter note:
TRUMP STATEMENTS.jpg
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 15576.html
His next job is doing the radio 4 racing tips.

On one hand his comments are hilarious, but on another it's no laughing matter - people dying as a result of his delusion that everything is a hoax.

I hope the electorate dwell on his incompetent handling of the crisis at the election, but my gut feeling is that they knew what they were getting when they first voted so nothing will probably change.

[mobius]

Tuco, I'm assuming you don't mean the D.Trump bit. This JHU site gets even better:-

LAY CHINA2.jpg

A definite L2B on China because:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... e-lockdown
Not again: China imposes NEW coronavirus lockdown - fears grow for devastating second wave
This is a bit like (the sadly departed) Bruce Forsyth with "Play Your Cards Right"
Will the next weeks' figure be higher or lower than

China daily deaths

china daily deaths.jpg

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The highlighted toolbar shown has zoom, pan, snapshot, etc.
Like this:
10 Minutes to Start

uk zoom.jpg

I really hope the UK is a B2L


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Blurb for geeks
COVID-19 MAP
COVID-19 Map FAQ
Who started the dashboard?
Professor Lauren Gardner, a civil and systems engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University, built the dashboard with her graduate student, Ensheng Dong. It is maintained at the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at the Whiting School of Engineering, with technical support from ESRI and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Gardner is co-director of the CSSE. Learn more about Gardner and the CSSE by visiting its website.

When and why was this map started?
The map was first shared publicly on Jan. 22. It was developed to provide researchers, public health authorities, and the general public with a user-friendly tool to track the outbreak as it unfolds. All data collected and displayed are made freely available through a GitHub repository, along with the feature layers of the dashboard, which are now included in the ESRI Living Atlas. For a detailed explanation for the dashboard’s development, please refer to this article in The Lancet by Professor Lauren Gardner.

Is there an embed code for the dashboard?
Yes, but please provide credit by citing “Johns Hopkins University” or “Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.” This is the embed code:. <iframe width="650" height="400" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" title="2019-nCoV" src="//arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=14aa9e5660cf42b5b4b546dec6ceec7c&extent=77.3846,11.535,163.5174,52.8632&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&disable_scroll=true&theme=light"></iframe>

[PDC]

I think most countries 'epic measures' have simply been in place to ensure health service capacities aren't overrun more than anything else. With no vaccines or cures available most governments will still be looking at herd immunity as the only long term option.

Fully agree with this comment by SB.

Herd immunity is the only option in reality. It has gone off from being the line quoted by the government but it is the only option open to them and is imo the policy they are still working with. What is the other option? The only other thing that will beat it is a vaccine.

Last week there were posts saying a vaccine was on its way in a matter of 3 weeks so we should be 2 weeks off now!?. That is not an option and will not happen. Vaccines don't come about like that.

The healthcare system in the UK is managing due to all the measures that have been taken. No non urgent surgery for example, converting many more beds into ICU beds. People staying at home etc.

But there is not a chance of a vaccine in 2020 being rolled out. There may be one in 2021, potentially,

So what can we do? Eventually everyone pretty much is going to have to get it prior to a vaccine. Many will die but it will be more spread out thanks to the measure that have been taken. However, what is going to happen once we start to lift the measures? They can't go on forever or there will be nothing to come back to. But how are the measures lifted without a massive rise in cases and deaths.

In the UK we have the benefit of Italy, Spain and France being ahead of us so we can see what happens there when they try to lift restrictions and what does and doesn't work. China is obviously ahead but we can't do what China does so is unrealistic to look at.

Eventually the UK healthcare system is going to have to start functioning again in some "normal" form, we can't put off operations forever for example. People will also grow restless as has always been said by the government, that is one of the reasons they held off with implementing the current measures.

We are in this for the long haul but with that comes the issue of next winter. The UK health care system has been extremely lucky to not have come into this after a bad flu season. We haven't had one for a long time, "we are due" one, hopefully it doesn't come this coming winter.

Also we came into the current situation off a very mild winter, this also had a huge benefit to the UK healthcare system for all the obvious reasons.

If we have a cold winter and a bad flu season then with Covid on top we are going to really struggle.

Lifting the restrictions but being able to keep within capacity is going to be very hard.

The UK population in general hasn't woken up to what is going to have to happen and what is going to happen. People in general seem to think things will magically be back to normal in a few weeks or a month or two but how that is achieved without a miracle cure hasn't been answered.

It just isn't possible. Many more are going to die but hopefully within manageable capacity. The politicians don't want to say that but it is what is going to happen and they know it, the one thing we need to hope for is that the current herd immunity is much larger than is currently thought. If it is then we are in a much better position. If it isn't then things look worse.

Lets hope many of us have already had it without knowing.

In the meantime, give your elderly parents/friends an extra phone call.

[gazuty]

Things I heard said but haven't seen

Herd immunity = does a person who has had the virus have future immunity, it is possible to get influenza each year, a once off dose doesn't provide future immunity.

Vaccine = we've never developed a vaccine for any coronavirus. The vaccine for SARS had really bad side effects on monkeys

///

The main thing we are grappling with is the moral or ethical dimension. We accept the price for mechanised road transport are road deaths, sad and tragic with a devastating impact on some families. Nevertheless we accept road deaths. We could of course build roads and cars and have speed limits to reduce the road toll to zero. But it would cost too much and so we don't do it.

We are spending too much at present in my opinion on each life saved from coronavirus. And often those lives have a life expectancy of less than 5 years in any case.

What should accept from coronavirus? That is the question. Its all part of nature, and we all have to die. We've pushed out the bounds on old age quite a lot but we do have accept that old people die from many causes and we can't keep them all alive forever at the expense of too great an impact on the economy. At the moment we've crashed the western economies to the benefit of baby boomers.

The median age of death from COVID-19 in both Australia and Italy, is 81 and the case mortality is less than 0.5%. The ‘normal’ flu killed 3,000 Australians last year. To date, 19 patients nationally have died in Australia from COVID-19 (more people die each week on the roads).

We need a better strategy and a better balance.

What would I accept, well as sad and tragic as it is, I would accept a death rate of say half of everyone over 70 and 100% for those over 90. And otherwise, I'd just return to normal activity. (obviously I am being deliberately provocative, but the question is how much money is it worth to keep an 80 year old alive for say an extra three years?? at the moment in both direct spending and lost economic activity we are spending far far too much vs killing people in small business and young people who will suiside or live dimished lives because of reduced future economic activity). For those familiar with it - this whole situation is a classic trolley problem - no thought experiment needed - our politicians are undertaking this real time - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

[Kai]

We need a better strategy and a better balance.

No such thing really. I see people keep saying that all over the place but don't really offer a solution and that's probably because there just isn't one. We have to work within the current (!) moral framework of the society because anything outside of it will never be accepted. "Just let everyone die" is not technically a solution either (unless it's considered something like "The Final Solution" from 1940s), it's practically just an absence of a solution. Easy to forget that a lot of the worlds richest and most powerful men are the ones being most targeted by the disease, and they won't go down without a fight. I think those that are criticizing the decision-makers the most would ironically be making the very same decisions as well if put in their position, simply because their hands would be tied.

There's not many options within this framework, besides isolating and weathering the storm until we can produce enough masks for everyone, and then slowly and carefully getting back to work in a fully masked society, again until we can get people vaccinated or discover a very effective treatment etc.

If the economy by then gets wrecked beyond repair then just drop the monetary system altogether, this might be a good opportunity to go for a moneyless society or something similar instead. But yeah, good luck pitching that one to everyone As nice as a utopian future might sound, we're much more on course for a dystopian one instead, particularly now if we fail to properly deal with the virus(es).