What football strategies do other Bet Angel users use ?
Lay the draw / back after goal ?
Back Under 2.5 in 1st 10 minutes, exit ?
Back a short priced fav if level at half time with stop loss ?
Would be great to discuss what works best when trading the football, depending on different circumstances
Football strategies ?
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Point2Point
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 6:59 am
It varies by match, each match is different and also it depends on who scores first.
Rather than laying the draw what about backing more than one goal?
Rather than laying the draw what about backing more than one goal?
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finnbarr99
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2009 1:17 pm
If you look at Soccer mystic each match has its own set of predicted odds figures.
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OnGoldWires
- Posts: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:07 pm
I am new to Soccer Mystic, however, in the past, I have used my own way of calculating in-play odds, which usually is pretty close to the market.
I believe two good sources of information on whether the market is correct before kickoff are FinkTank from the Times and Betfair’s Victor the Predictor.
I believe two good sources of information on whether the market is correct before kickoff are FinkTank from the Times and Betfair’s Victor the Predictor.
Strategies.
Laying the draw.
Issues
1. 8% end up 0-0
2. If the outsider scores first the draw can come in in price
Tip: Look for equally priced/matched teams
Laying 'Massive early leads'. Liverpool's come back in the Champions League final. 1.01 layed 1000 gives small liability which can then be traded for good returns if the team behind scores. (This happened this week at Sheffield).
Best of all and Peter's favourite (I believe) is over and under 2.5 goals.
I use Mystic to gauge a 10% return (not neccesarily right from the start), if I fancy unders. On certain matches my personal inner gong tells me overs (currently anything with Man City) when I will trade out after the first goal if it is giving me value.
If things start going south (an early first goal on unders) I may green up (spread the loss) and take the option to 10x my stake to cover the short fall. Or something I have starting doing a lot more of - immediately go to the 3.5 goal market and use the price jump after the first goal to cover any like loss of the 2.5 market.
This relies on a period of calm after the first goal, somethig that did not happen on Saturday's Newcastle game where 3 goals were scored in 7 minutes.
So I guess the answer is suck it and see
but there are a few ideas. - John (BTW 5 years and 5k down 
but now 3.5k down)
Laying the draw.
Issues
1. 8% end up 0-0
2. If the outsider scores first the draw can come in in price
Tip: Look for equally priced/matched teams
Laying 'Massive early leads'. Liverpool's come back in the Champions League final. 1.01 layed 1000 gives small liability which can then be traded for good returns if the team behind scores. (This happened this week at Sheffield).
Best of all and Peter's favourite (I believe) is over and under 2.5 goals.
I use Mystic to gauge a 10% return (not neccesarily right from the start), if I fancy unders. On certain matches my personal inner gong tells me overs (currently anything with Man City) when I will trade out after the first goal if it is giving me value.
If things start going south (an early first goal on unders) I may green up (spread the loss) and take the option to 10x my stake to cover the short fall. Or something I have starting doing a lot more of - immediately go to the 3.5 goal market and use the price jump after the first goal to cover any like loss of the 2.5 market.
This relies on a period of calm after the first goal, somethig that did not happen on Saturday's Newcastle game where 3 goals were scored in 7 minutes.
So I guess the answer is suck it and see
but there are a few ideas. - John (BTW 5 years and 5k down but now 3.5k down)
I ran that footy strategy for a year on paper (the home win value) for the four English leagues. 2007/08 I ended up 20 points up. However the first week I ran it I ended up 7 points up, and therefore was physicoloigically 'up' from the start.
I the lost the will to live when using real money (08/09) and being about 6 point down after 10 weeks.
However we are enough ganmes into the season to give it a go again.
I have a workbook that does all the calcs. You have to cut and paste in the thel tables from a website (the formatting works for a sporting newspaper) 365 for the fixtures. It is all done in about 20 mins. Plus I have factored in betfairs 5%.
PM me if you want it.
I the lost the will to live when using real money (08/09) and being about 6 point down after 10 weeks.
However we are enough ganmes into the season to give it a go again.
I have a workbook that does all the calcs. You have to cut and paste in the thel tables from a website (the formatting works for a sporting newspaper) 365 for the fixtures. It is all done in about 20 mins. Plus I have factored in betfairs 5%.
PM me if you want it.
Hi from Elland Road, Evertonian,
years ago when The Pools were the only real road to gambling riches for an average bloke, I analysed draws in The Football and Scottish leagues. I think it still holds true that about 25% of (league) games finish in draws. I found that I could get that up to 33% by backing those matches where the away team had 1 to 5 points more than the home team. Recently I re-visited the method as with the inception of Betfair laying became possible. I looked at all last seasons divisions and the major European leagues results (without refining for the higher probability draw matches)and whilst occasionally a division shows a small loss, the overall season results would have shown a significant level stake profit if you could have layed the draws at a maximum of 3. Attacking this area ought to be a viable trading strategy particularly if you knock out the higher probability matches(I say "ought to be" because I am an awful trader unable to show a profit even after 3 years practice)
Marching on Together, P
years ago when The Pools were the only real road to gambling riches for an average bloke, I analysed draws in The Football and Scottish leagues. I think it still holds true that about 25% of (league) games finish in draws. I found that I could get that up to 33% by backing those matches where the away team had 1 to 5 points more than the home team. Recently I re-visited the method as with the inception of Betfair laying became possible. I looked at all last seasons divisions and the major European leagues results (without refining for the higher probability draw matches)and whilst occasionally a division shows a small loss, the overall season results would have shown a significant level stake profit if you could have layed the draws at a maximum of 3. Attacking this area ought to be a viable trading strategy particularly if you knock out the higher probability matches(I say "ought to be" because I am an awful trader unable to show a profit even after 3 years practice)
Marching on Together, P
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Rubik
You should have a look at: -
Lay 0-0 half time
Back 0-0 full time but with a smaller stake. Often throws up some interesting profit potential.
Lay 0-0 half time
Back 0-0 full time but with a smaller stake. Often throws up some interesting profit potential.
I've mulled this over for a few days, don't quite see how this could achieve anything long-term other than break even, that is, a small loss after commission?Rubik wrote:You should have a look at: -
Lay 0-0 half time
Back 0-0 full time but with a smaller stake. Often throws up some interesting profit potential.
Is the key in this strategy knowing more than the market with regards to a certain price (ie: you're convinced the price on 0-0 full-time is too high) and adjusting the stake ratio on the HT lay bet in relation to the CS back bet accordingly?
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
To go back to this 0-0 correct score and lay 0-0 ht strategy, is this profitable long term or again does it need certain matches to be profitable on ?