Why are there so many in-play bettors

[TraderFred]

Do you trade in running horses, Kai?

I was always under the impression you traded football. My comments were mainly made regarding horse racing. As horse racing are the only markets really where you get decent action and price movements pre race. In horse racing, the pre race betting market is almost as big an event as the race itself. On races like the grand national you can even bet on who will go off favourite. If you watch the build up to almost any race the pundits will be telling you about the market, big gamble on x, big drift of y etc.

Where as in sports, whilst I see you do get some movement in pre match football markets when teams and injuries are announced etc. Though generally, the pre event markets on other sports are pretty static, and football, tennis, cricket etc are all mainly about the inplay.

I would certainly never put anybody off anything. If you can make it work for you, great. I’d never write off Inplay, though it just seems that unless you have the very fastest feeds, or are botting, you’re up against it. Though obviously, it’s not impossible.

But yes I should have made clear I was talking about PRE RACE HORSE RACING and not SPORTS TRADING.

Sorry about the caps, wasn’t shouting, just can’t do that bold highlighting thing that you do.

[rik]

I think in running you get gappy markets combined with high liquidity.
market matches a lay at 2 and split second later a back at 3, obviously at least one of them was matched at big value.
Also I think you can take advantage of being able to cancel bets at 200 or so ms whereas placing bets will take you 1,2 seconds
I like its fast and intuitive, pre race is more analytical which is not my strength, still try though
My profits from inrunninn definitely better than pre race but couldnt give you an exact figure as dont have a spreadsheet that could divide bets placed in running from pre race, if anyone could help me with that let me know please

[Archery1969]

Haven’t tried it myself but I know a few in-play traders who fire in 100s of LTB trades when the back book% goes over a certain percentage.

Never bothered to ask them exactly what there doing but I assume they have found some kind of in-play edge and are doing well from it.

They have much bigger houses than mine.

[Kai]

Do you trade in running horses, Kai?

I do, why else would I be defending this market in such an elaborate way. I guess I took the scenic route in short, not counting the first year, by going from (prerace) racing to football for a long time and now back to racing, until I reach a good enough level to properly tackle cricket, and then re-evaluate.

But looks that a few others like Rik are interested in the market as well from what I've seen in other threads, the markets are bigger than they look, so I think he is on to something

I should have made clear I was talking about PRE RACE HORSE RACING and not SPORTS TRADING.

I understand what you meant, no need to explain If you understand me then you'll notice that I fully agree with everything you say, only my first sentence was directed at you directly, while the rest I just expanded on your remarks and added some of my own.

I’d never write off Inplay, though it just seems that unless you have the very fastest feeds, or are botting, you’re up against it. Though obviously, it’s not impossible.

It does seem like that but the reality is a bit different, for like 500 pounds a week you can get the fastest pictures but it won't help as much as one would think, since a lot of people want to play the same speed game.

I don't really care whether someone thinks that race reading is a gambling myth, which is something I hear very often, that's a skill that anyone can build with some practice, but my interest mostly lies in the order flow anyway. And to read that you don't even need any pictures to see what's going on in the race, the ladder paints a picture before you see it on the stream. Having the fastest pictures in general is not a skill so I never cared about these types of angles, it's just a resource, one that can easily run out.

There are a number of viable ways to trade this market inplay, both from the race reading side and the order flow side, as usual a mix of both probably gives out the best results. I was honestly completely clueless about this, barely ever looked at the market until a few colleagues shed a bit of light on it, but I don't think people like to talk about inplay at all on this forum even if they're involved in the market, they would just be giving free ideas to automation experts.

[Euler]

I feel the surge in interest in in-play is because, as mentioned elsewhere on this thread, it's an easy sell.

You can pretty much custom build a strike rate and pitch that as a successful strategy to gullible newbies. When you lose, it's just bad luck!

Of course, you can actively trade both market states successfully. Just not in the way that a lot this is being portrayed. If you look at the thousands of people that have bought into this stuff, there has been no change in market activity as such.

It's interesting browsing various forums and communities because on here I feel the debate is healthy and not foolish. But by default that makes it seem a very different place.

[Euler]

It's funny watching people turn to unfamiliar markets. Suddenly you see a podcast on Belarussian football and where to find value, really?

I think to sit on the other side of this sort of stuff is easily the best place to be.

[TraderFred]

I’m well aware that people win at in running, Kai. I’m not trying to put anyone off it, or say that pre race is any better or worst. So you have no need to defend . I was basically agreeing with you too.

The opening post was asking why in running seems so popular, which it does. There does seem to be a lot of people who call themselves in running traders. There are a lot of people on the sell side who do this, and the reason I think , as most other people, including yourself think, is that it is easier to sell than pre off.

Pre off doesn’t seem that popular to me to be honest. In running seems far more popular, even on this forum, even with its influential pre race owner !

Fast pics are not the be all and end all. Though people pay a lot of money to be 2 seconds ahead of everybody else, I assume they don’t do that for the fun of it.

I try to avoid twitter etc, though I’m well aware of gambling/ trading twitter. Last time I looked nobody loses at either cricket or in running horses, so it looks like you have made a good choice !

My point was that a lot of so called In running trading strategies are more or less just gambling. Ive nothing against gambling, position taking is also potentially far more lucrative than trading. If you trade pre race, you can always trade out for a profit or a loss before the event starts. In running, whilst you might have every intention of trading out, taking a profit, or even a loss, fact is, if something bad happens, the price will hit 1000 before you have chance to do anything about it, especially if watching on delayed pics. So whilst potentially more lucrative, it is also potentially a lot more damaging.

I certainly don’t think that race reading skills are a myth either. I am more than certain that it is possible to profit from good race reading skills, whether those skills can overcome a 2 second time delay though I think is debatable. Though again, I’m sure there are plenty that do it.

[Euler]

I certainly don’t think that race reading skills are a myth either. I am more than certain that it is possible to profit from good race reading skills, whether those skills can overcome a 2 second time delay though I think is debatable. Though again, I’m sure there are plenty that do it.

I'm a good race reader now. All those years spent watching the previous race to get the pictures for the course, have taught me a lot.

You have to remember though that the same skills can be applied on course as well.

But I automate in-play stuff so I can set and forgot and keep the focus on pre-off.

[Anbell]

My profits from inrunninn definitely better than pre race but couldnt give you an exact figure as dont have a spreadsheet that could divide bets placed in running from pre race, if anyone could help me with that let me know please

You could ask your account manager for that detail, or alternatively you could set up a bot to place a small SP bet on every race, which would give you a time-stamp for the actual off, and use that to categorise other bets into pre-post and in-running

[Kai]

It's funny watching people turn to unfamiliar markets. Suddenly you see a podcast on Belarussian football and where to find value, really?

Yeah, it's not a bad idea to step outside of our comfort zones and give unfamiliar markets a go, that's maybe the best way to keep growing. It only makes sense to properly explore most of the markets that a betting exchange has to offer, why settle for anything less, I already regret not doing it much sooner, lol.

Pre off doesn’t seem that popular to me to be honest. In running seems far more popular, even on this forum, even with its influential pre race owner !

I had the opposite impression, maybe I missed the whole point of the thread, seen some negative comments but no idea really what they're referring to and who is selling what, just seen the one that James posted earlier and that's it.

Like yourself I barely look at Twitter anymore, I sort of filter out these types of people anyway and forget they exist most of the time, I've accepted that they're an inevitable part of the industry and it doesn't bother me much anymore. Don't think any of us should waste our time discussing them at length, whoever they are, we're just giving them more power and attention that way.

Ultimately, if true, it's not a bad thing at all for inplay traders or auto strategies, to have so many random inplay bettors that don't know what they're doing in the market. The more the merrier I'd say.

[gazuty]

All the time on twitter (thankfully not so much on here) there are so many in-play bettors (that call themselves traders), why does it seem like there are so many betting in running compared to pre race or is it true?

Is pre race too hard for people that they go looking elsewhere or is it the lure of bigger profits on small banks that's more enticing?

Good on you Sir. A thoughtful and stimulating thread has developed.

I would observe there are defintely markets where in play appears that it might be profitable but it also strikes me as the sort of thing where shirts could be lost very easily (1.01 backers when 1.01 lay is long term profitable). I do also see people lay right up to the 1000 "obvious" non-winners as soon as that is "obvious" to them - there must be the odd horrific mistake. For example, there are sometimes the odd race where the race caller gets confused with the colors etc and have definitely seen the wrong horse backed at 1.01 and the wrong horse layed at 1000. None of this is to say that it can't be long term profitable (it's just another zero sum subtract the rake market and hence bound to be fish and sharks).

[gazuty]

All the time on twitter (thankfully not so much on here) there are so many in-play bettors (that call themselves traders), why does it seem like there are so many betting in running compared to pre race or is it true?

Is pre race too hard for people that they go looking elsewhere or is it the lure of bigger profits on small banks that's more enticing?

Good on you Sir. A thoughtful and stimulating thread has developed.

I would observe there are defintely markets where in play appears that it might be profitable but it also strikes me as the sort of thing where shirts could be lost very easily (1.01 backers when 1.01 lay is long term profitable). I do also see people lay right up to the 1000 "obvious" non-winners as soon as that is "obvious" to them - there must be the odd horrific mistake. For example, there is sometimes the odd race where the race caller gets confused with the colors etc and have definitely seen the wrong horse backed at 1.01 and the wrong horse layed at 1000. None of this is to say that it can't be long term profitable (it's just another zero sum subtract the rake market and hence bound to be fish and sharks).

[Kai]

Yes, this is definitely the market for horrific mistakes. Seen a lot of people copying Bickat, he always liked to find a seemingly poor runner for higher lays, and then add a few smaller lays above 500 purely out of greed, it's a dangerous habit to develop for anyone trying to copy. I stopped doing that very early on after one of the donkeys came back into the race with me risking around 2k that I wasn't planning on risking for no reason other than needless greed, it's far better to be on the other side of that opportunity.

Seen clips of people blowing banks on a race with silly lays, there's even some on Youtube, I'd link here to warn about these dangers but the trading software being used is incompatible with the forum.

I think FOMO plays a huge role in such a fast market and people give up so much value because of it, they only have a split second to pull the trigger and don't want to squander the opportunity, which makes no sense really because another race is just around the corner and it pays more to be patient than greedy.

I very much like the fact that during a race in short periods of greatest uncertainty nobody really knows what the true price should be on a horse no matter how experienced they are, it could be evens or it could be 6, a second later it's 10, it's all just guesswork for the most part.

I also like how the favorite is a lot more tradable than on football during the speculative periods, there's a lot more room to work with, by the time the race heats up and the big players decide where to make their moves you can already be sitting in a comfortable position with no pressure to try and spot a bit of genuine value somewhere, for sure keeps FOMO in check.

[wearthefoxhat]

Yes, this is definitely the market for horrific mistakes. Seen a lot of people copying Bickat, he always liked to find a seemingly poor runner for higher lays, and then add a few smaller lays above 500 purely out of greed, it's a dangerous habit to develop for anyone trying to copy. I stopped doing that very early on after one of the donkeys came back into the race with me risking around 2k that I wasn't planning on risking for no reason other than needless greed, it's far better to be on the other side of that opportunity.

Seen clips of people blowing banks on a race with silly lays, there's even some on Youtube, I'd link here to warn about these dangers but the trading software being used is incompatible with the forum.

I think FOMO plays a huge role in such a fast market and people give up so much value because of it, they only have a split second to pull the trigger and don't want to squander the opportunity, which makes no sense really because another race is just around the corner and it pays more to be patient than greedy.

I very much like the fact that during a race in short periods of greatest uncertainty nobody really knows what the true price should be on a horse no matter how experienced they are, it could be evens or it could be 6, a second later it's 10, it's all just guesswork for the most part.

I also like how the favorite is a lot more tradable than on football during the speculative periods, there's a lot more room to work with, by the time the race heats up and the big players decide where to make their moves you can already be sitting in a comfortable position with no pressure to try and spot a bit of genuine value somewhere, for sure keeps FOMO in check.

The Ole FOMO.

I tend to look for the L2B types in-play. After some R&D in the morning, it produces a short-list, so when the race(s) get under way, I used to get involved even though it was clear I was on the wrong side and should have left the race alone. FOMO was the problem.

I remember a race back in 2009 @ Cheltenham. Wichita Lineman (5/1f) ridden by AP McCoy. On my notes I'd written, avoid any AP McCoy ride as he was well known for his "never give up" tenaciousness...But, he was on a horse that had a certain "timeform squiggle" quality about him. So, I decided watch the race and if there was any evidence it was struggling...Lay for free money... (@44.00) hit a high of (60.00)

I found this 2 minute you-tube video...brings back memories on that one...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rtVH3n6uKk

I learnt that the right trade (maybe in hindsight), should have been. Lay Pre @6.97 and trade out when evidence it was struggling...or if going well, trade out and take a loss.

[Naffman]

I've seen tens of thousands of horses races but still imo you need to know quite a lot about the horse you want to trade ie.
- does it always pull during the run
- does it prefer a slow speed even though its ridden off the pace and does an on pacer prefer a faster gallop
- does it rally when looking beaten
- where is the best part of the track on that day

There are so many quirks to different horses that you really need to study in depth to make it work imo, not just laying one because you think it looks beaten or because they've gone too quick in front (which will probably be reflected in the price anyway)