Compounding Betfair Balance Questions

[Kai]

Wanting the prove the naysayers wrong has got to be a cognitive bias of sorts, surely?

[HampshireIan]

Wanting the prove the naysayers wrong has got to be a cognitive bias of sorts, surely?

God, I wish I knew what that meant

[Kai]

Wanting the prove the naysayers wrong has got to be a cognitive bias of sorts, surely?

God, I wish I knew what that meant

It means that people saying "it can't be done" etc is only spurring you on

Practically turning the negative feedback into a positive driving force, no matter how foolish or irrational the endeavour may be.

[Derek27]

Just watched the clip - couldn't see the odds of the winning horse, but presume it was a biggun

ian - if you're doing it for a bit of fun, then it really could be chair gripping to see how many succesful bets you have before the wipeout high odds winner arrives. might be nice if we actually started a sweep stake on here. I'll go 1st:

depending on average odds (i.e. > 20 maybe and assuming ONE runner per race), then I'll go for 18 successes, then bing bong

It would be simpler to guess how big the bank gets before it blows. I'd guess £75 - £85.

[HampshireIan]

It would be simpler to guess how big the bank gets before it blows. I'd guess £75 - £85.

Currently at £79.52 so i'm nearly f**ked by your reckoning Derek

[jimibt]

It would be simpler to guess how big the bank gets before it blows. I'd guess £75 - £85.

Currently at £79.52 so i'm nearly f**ked by your reckoning Derek

ok, £95.72 -then bust

[Kai]

It would be simpler to guess how big the bank gets before it blows. I'd guess £75 - £85.

Currently at £79.52 so i'm nearly f**ked by your reckoning Derek

[CallumPerry]

Your screenshot doesn't show any profits or odds. I'm not saying you have but you could have just scalped a single tick for around 20 markets and lost 50p just to post something on the forum.

I'm not here to mock, I see that you're just doing this for a bit of fun. What I would say, to make it fun for everyone is to show us the odds you made a lay bet on for each market (assuming only one lay bet per market) and show us your actual profits. Don't hide anything, full transparency is key.

Would be good to see how far you can realistically take £50. You can't beat the Maths but you may have a knack for finding value and get 'lucky' for a decent amount of time. I'm interested to see how far you can take this.

[jimibt]

[Kai]

Would be good to see how far you can realistically take £50. You can't beat the Maths but you may have a knack for finding value and get 'lucky' for a decent amount of time. I'm interested to see how far you can take this.

But does he really have to be a mathemagician to see how far it can go?

Based on the outsider odds it should just be some basic maths that he can do in his head and job done, no need to actually test it live. There is nothing really to test here for me and no real experiment to be had, it's just a way to alleviate the apparent boredom Especially if no edge is involved and it's all at random.

[HampshireIan]

I would kind of agree with you Callum, from the inside looking out, that I could just be making this up - obviously I'm not though as i'd have said my opening balance was £5k and i'm punting that on every bet. Imagine the kudos i'd get there

Naa, I started I think on £37.00 or so and have grown it to £79.00

Maybe if this keeps going for a while, i'll need to try and show more proof of what i'm doing, but I had 20 bets between yesterday AM and today so far, with odds ranging from about 20 to 35 or so, so that would be a hell of a lot of posts to this thread.

I'll keep you all updated a few times a day for the crack, entertainment and witty banter until such times as I burn on the cross

[CallumPerry]

From an edge-finding, logical, meaningful, useful test Kai, you're completely correct and think HampshireIan would say the same. I think this is purely a bit of 'fun' with the stupid amount of boredom flying around. If he's sent some money to the NHS already and is just making a different sort of thread, I see no harm.

The only reason I want to see actual proof is just so I know this is a genuine self-imposed challenge. I'm not using this thread as any sort of learning area; I'm purely curious.

Maybe it's healthy to get these urges out once in a while in a controlled, public way? Who knows. Who cares. I'm bored, hope you don't lose your money HampshireIan

[ShaunWhite]

i'd have said my opening balance was £5k and i'm punting that on every bet. Imagine the kudos i'd get there

You'd get more kudos using 50p than 5grand.

If you said what your mean odds were and the std deviation you/we could run a Monte Carlo and have a proper stab at how long this will last. And see if you can beat it?

[HampshireIan]

Well how does 22 bets sound

Roll on 1st June for another go

[jamesg46]

i'd have said my opening balance was £5k and i'm punting that on every bet. Imagine the kudos i'd get there

You'd get more kudos using 50p than 5grand.

If you said what your mean odds were and the std deviation you/we could run a Monte Carlo and have a proper stab at how long this will last. And see if you can beat it?

The issue might be that becuase it's just some fun he hasn't bothered to collect any data... if so, then we are all pissing in the wind & i'm taking a stab at 35 lays, then bust. Hell, he aint too bothered about 50 quid so may aswell join the fun.