Today's Football

[Kafkaesque]

IF the Bundesliga does start up in the next couple of weeks (not holding my breath) then their should be some decent opportunities. No crowds are going to have an impact its just impossible to tell in advance which team its going to affect more, home or away.

There are plenty of 'professional' footballers who aren't motivated at the best of times so playing in an empty stadium won't do anything for their work rate.

The real question for me is how much will the market factor in no crowd, if at all?

It will be factored in for sure. To me the question more so is how effectively it will be so. There'll be a fair few models that would under normal circumstances be a big part of shaping the market prices, which will be inefficient under these special conditions.

Also, beyond no crowds, and in fact more importantly imo, the motivation factor could be huge. With a midtable squad with no realistic chance of Europe and likewise risk of going down, you could easily speculate that their motivation to get completely into top gear in a short midseason-preseason (with other factors such as their families health weighing on them) would be markedly different from a team in either the top or bottom end of the table.

Should be good value if you can stay ahead of the curve before models - maybe - catch up.

[Kafkaesque]

2nd fase of re-opening has been announced by the Danish Government, with (outdoor) pro sports allowed to restart immidiately. They haven't been training though, so it'll probably be a in a few weeks as with the German league, if not later. Still, thought I would mention another step in the right direction for football traders

The Danish league is only 14 teams so only 7 matches during a gameweek, but they are spread out with (typically) only one match taking place at a time, so it's a decent league in terms of trading until more prominent leagues start up.

[Headless Chuck]

Do I have it right that there are no correct score markets for these upcoming Bundesliga games? Or will they appear nearer the time? Or is the anticipated volume too poor?

[Kai]

Do I have it right that there are no correct score markets for these upcoming Bundesliga games? Or will they appear nearer the time? Or is the anticipated volume too poor?

They will open CS markets later Chuck. Not much use opening them so early, there'd be no money.

[Headless Chuck]

They will open CS markets later Chuck. Not much use opening them so early, there'd be no money.

Many thanks Kai. I only really want them to test an Excel that might get used on EPL games at a later date.

[Kai]

They will open CS markets later Chuck. Not much use opening them so early, there'd be no money.

Many thanks Kai. I only really want them to test an Excel that might get used on EPL games at a later date.

You can maybe use the Belarus game that is starting in 5 minutes : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .170402663

[rik]

dont do any automated or market making strategies in running, yesterdays russian football was 2 goals several seconds late to suspend and bets not voided

[megarain]

My mistake .. wrong league

[Kai]

dont do any automated or market making strategies in running, yesterdays russian football was 2 goals several seconds late to suspend and bets not voided

+1

As a general rule of thumb regarding football matches, I'd say the lower the quality the higher the chance of running into all sorts of issues, and not just during the lockdown period.

The level of Betfair service on lower prestige markets can too often be subpar, to put it mildly, so this needs to be taken into account if anyone plans on getting involved with those markets.

Some markets are too unreliable even for Betfair's own market makers, so this perhaps gives an opportunity for others to step in if they're willing to take these risks on.

[stu410]

FK Lokomotiv Gomel_ Krumkachy....BF live stream ...2nd half is being played but the first half is broadcast

[wearthefoxhat]

An article that might be significant in the short term.

advantages.jpg

Source: https://www.sportinglife.com/football/n ... rth/179807

[Kafkaesque]

An article that might be significant in the short term.


advantages.jpg


Source: https://www.sportinglife.com/football/n ... rth/179807

As is reflected in the numbers you posted from the article, this sentence...

"Assuming that the draw rate remains constant, which seems reasonable"

...is a false assumption. To the point of making the guy's venture into coming up with percentages laughable. Based on how prices usually behave, my own models, and just plain common sense.

[Kai]

It's going to be very strange no matter how you try to measure it, so I assume strange results will occur more often than usual.

Liverpool will lose the power of Anfield which would be at its very peak (!) considering the title situation, but getting results away from home will be that much easier, so it might even out in the end, more or less. They still have to play at Goodison and Emptyhad (for once the meme will be spot on, lul) so that's a big plus for them.

Teams that get pressured by their massive home crowds might actually perform better without them, like United, or possibly Spurs and Arsenal as well at this moment in time? Some might end up benefiting in the end, like Spurs injury wise, they all need to make one final push for the leftover CL spot.

[Euler]

Home advantage is worth about 0.40 of a goal. So work out the ratings and deduct 0.40ish roughly etc. Normal rules of being sensible apply.

[rik]

I would assume there is still a slight advantage not having to travel, playing in the usual environment/amenities?