Australian Horse Racing

[Derek27]

I'm really making the most of Canterbury. Next week I reckon it'll be Saturdays only, you'll be lucky to get through a whole card.

[gazuty]

I'm really making the most of Canterbury. Next week I reckon it'll be Saturdays only, you'll be lucky to get through a whole card.

$6000/8 races.

And imagine if there are a bunch of short priced faves eg a Winx - would have to skip the race or conversely just do that race.

So I suspect people avoid races with odds on faves and look for races 4.0 and over or concentrate on opportunities at higher odds near the crossover 48/50/55.

[Derek27]

I'm really making the most of Canterbury. Next week I reckon it'll be Saturdays only, you'll be lucky to get through a whole card.

$6000/8 races.

And imagine if there are a bunch of short priced faves eg a Winx - would have to skip the race or conversely just do that race.

So I suspect people avoid races with odds on faves and look for races 4.0 and over or concentrate on opportunities at higher odds near the crossover 48/50/55.

It's quite a dilemma. The shorter priced horses trade best for me but I'll have to look at changing my approach. Let's hope Racing NSW starts to see some sense at some stage in the future.

[Naffman]

In loss but feel like I'm managing today well, feels totally crap like last weds

[Atho55]

I can post some data if anyone is looking for any inspiration..

[gazuty]

I can post some data if anyone is looking for any inspiration..

Inspire us Atho.

[Atho55]

This is all based on data from 2015 to now, Promo files so more inclined towards what won or lost.

These are the best 10 performing odds over that period in either a Range 10-20 as an example, or an individual Rank. Back and Lay. So day 1 going forward is the 10th May 2020

Results.jpg

If any of those are of interest can post the detail.


What wins where sample. Rank v Course

Rank v Course % Win or Lose.jpg

[Anbell]

I dont necessarily understand the data - but it looks as though on May 10 if you backed every horse that SP'd between 10 and 20 you'd win 485.

And if you laid all of those horses you'd also win?

[Atho55]

The clue is in the text, These are the best 10 performing odds over that period in either a Range 10-20 as an example

They are not the same 10 odds..... so both can win or lose and of the 10, some appear more frequent than others.

[ShaunWhite]

These are the best 10 performing odds over that period in either a Range 10-20 as an example

If a horse is trading at close to 10 or 20 just before the off how do you know if it will SP inside or outside the range.

[Atho55]

Because we know its SP, we place our bet just after it`s declared at 1s into the race. It`s not looking at a specific horse, trainer, jockey, course, distance race type but a specific group of odds, between 10 and 20 that have over performed. It is not trading as it depends on the race result but you can trade out, neither is it a random punt. It`s examination of historical data and the selection of odds that have returned a + return over the data period.

At the data start point (10th May) the selection(s) can do 3 things, continue to overperform, or there be a trend reversal and it all goes tits up or just return a break even sum.

Historically it looks like this.

10-20 Back Odds.jpg

It may or may not be inspirational but it`s an alternative approach if trading is becoming prohibitive.

I don`t use it as a strategy hence the offer to share it if others wish to. Nothing more, nothing less.

[ShaunWhite]

Because we know its SP, we place our bet just after it`s declared at 1s into the race.

Fair enough. But whenever I've looked at things like that there's always enough winners that never trade as high as sp during the race to spoil the numbers. Ditto enough losers that don't trade that low. If you've got inplay highs and lows in your data then it could be worth factoring that in.

[Derek27]

In loss but feel like I'm managing today well, feels totally crap like last weds

Didn't you trade Canterbury? Easy scalping and one of the last 'eat as much pizza as you want' days.

[Naffman]

In loss but feel like I'm managing today well, feels totally crap like last weds

Didn't you trade Canterbury? Easy scalping and one of the last 'eat as much pizza as you want' days.

No I only trade nsw a tiny bit on Tuesdays and then the metro meeting on a Saturday.

Hopefully liquidity can funnel into other states but I don't think it'll be much if at all

[Wildly]

Betfair updating its rules for NSW on 1 June - https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/turnover-charge/

THanks for that

OLD:
This charge will only apply to customers who during a week meet all three of the below criteria:

have matched back bets on 25 or more RNSW markets;
have matched back bets with an aggregate value of $2000 or greater on RNSW markets; and
the total commission generated by the customer on RNSW markets is less than 1.5% of the aggregate value of matched back bets placed by the customer on those markets.
The charge will be 1.2% of the aggregate value of matched back bets on RNSW markets.


New:
have matched back bets on 1 or more NSW thoroughbred markets;
have matched back bets with an aggregate value of $6,000 or greater on NSW thoroughbred markets; and
the total commission generated by the customer on NSW thoroughbred markets is less than 1.25% of the aggregate value of matched back bets placed by the customer on those markets.
The charge will be 2.4% of the aggregate value of matched back bets on NSW thoroughbred markets.

No more tokens!

Betfair still use this calculation even in markets with10% base rate:
"Implied commission is 3% of player losses where players make an overall loss on a single market."

That's just wrong to imply that on NSW markets where players make a loss the winners on the other side are only paying 3% commission.