Australian racing

[Derek27]

i had a look at the recording, it hit 1000 very briefly but that was mainly due to crossmatching of the other 2 being backed, wu gok was barely a length behind at any point in the stretch run

Can 1000 be cross matched? Isn't the corollary of 1.01/ 101? Even two at 1.01 is 202.

I think above 101 generally that is real money, maybe I'm wrong.

1.01 is about 99% so youll get an overround of 198%

if there is back bet in the market on one runner at evens and anyone wants to back another runners at less than evens with noone to match him he will be cross match with all other lay bets in the market no matter the price up to 1000

I doubt they were both trading at 1.01 at the same time and I think only £128 was backed on each of them at 1.01.

Even if there was an advantage in the lay prices, £9 matched at 1000 would mean the back bet at evens would have to be around £4,500 with all the others proportionally matched.

[rik]

trust me derek the way the price was flickering upwards with lot of tiny bets thats 99% of those bets are cross matched, if you slow down the video you can even see which back bet caused the lay bets on the other runners, most of the big inplay guys try to back the winner so especially a competitive finish with 3 or more runners back overround will go easily 100%+ if no cross matching
there might be a couple of guys focusing on laying at odds 1000 but unlikely in a close finish like that, what moved the price to 1000 was back bets on the other 2

[mcgoo]

Horlicks that last one at Rosehill. Worst result of the day

[Derek27]

trust me derek the way the price was flickering upwards with lot of tiny bets thats 99% of those bets are cross matched, if you slow down the video you can even see which back bet caused the lay bets on the other runners, most of the big inplay guys try to back the winner so especially a competitive finish with 3 or more runners back overround will go easily 100%+ if no cross matching
there might be a couple of guys focusing on laying at odds 1000 but unlikely in a close finish like that, what moved the price to 1000 was back bets on the other 2

I'll have to watch a few in-play markets. I had no idea in-play cross-matching was widespread.

[eightbo]

Narrandera R4 laughable stacks, hopefully continues in future mkts
edit: lost, rip

[Derek27]

Horlicks that last one at Rosehill. Worst result of the day

Sorry to hear that. That was my best of the day, but I'm running out of chips so that's my last for the week in NSW.

[Naffman]

Narrandera R4 laughable stacks, hopefully continues in future mkts
edit: lost, rip

He's been around the last few saturdays, complete idiot but he is more than welcome

[eightbo]

Must've missed them, although only had partial sessions. Would be nice if their pockets weren't endless so a nice reversal play is on the table.

Underslept and session meandering so ending early, gl all w/ rest of session.
Just 1.3% when dividing NSW profit by NSW matched back bet vol.
Still not really adjusted style much so lots of scratching/scalping on short-priced favs (1.01-3.00), can be quite enticing sometimes depending on gaps in market. Only been 2wks but looking like that'll be my 1st adjustment with new charge in place.

[mcgoo]

Horlicks that last one at Rosehill. Worst result of the day

Sorry to hear that. That was my best of the day, but I'm running out of chips so that's my last for the week in NSW.

Made profit of nearly 3x that loss in R7 ...it's such a pity about NSW . Oh well..back to trying to understand other markets for me.

[mcgoo]

Increased ye olde bank by 35% this week but don't feel I can scale. I think I can see what separates me from you lot and its not good
Edit: Didn't mean to be mercurial and all mysterious like-I can see my lack of edges and can see how I am not comfortable being uncomfortable-and at 49 am not sure I can overcome that no matter how much I think I am feeling it. Time to contemplate navel

[rik]

scale up very gradually little by little?

[Atho55]

A question for you regular Aus traders, have been running a predictor and the recent trend is downwards, is this coincidental with any seasonal or usual downturns in the market in general?

This is the test window thus far

Aus.jpg

[Anbell]

A question for you regular Aus traders, have been running a predictor and the recent trend is downwards, is this coincidental with any seasonal or usual downturns in the market in general?

This is the test window thus far

Aus.jpg

That's such a small sample size, and no baseline, so can't tell anything from that, however my models have been all over the place too, and it coincides with a) the return of UK racing b) the change in TC terms for NSW (although my models have gone crazy country wide)

[Euler]

We are in winter in Aus at the moment, so things would be different. But so many other factors at the moment as well.

[rik]

A question for you regular Aus traders, have been running a predictor and the recent trend is downwards, is this coincidental with any seasonal or usual downturns in the market in general?

This is the test window thus far

Aus.jpg

how am i supposed to tell anything from that graph, i dont know what you are predicting?
I didnt notice a big change the last days but surely average volume will go down a to about previous levels again with uk racing back