Using the good ole Adrian Massey Website (yes still going strong)
All Weather races: Handicaps; Clear and Jt favourites records UK&Ire (4 Years from 2016 - 2019 inclusive)
So racetype and course covered, with AWR, the surface/draw is gonna play a factor. Mostly, apart from a couple of bends, they act like a greyhound track and so some other hypothesis can be made specific to each track. - ie: Trainers that specialise, poor quality horses taking their turn to win, age of horse.
Gambles do occur, so market moves are important to observe.
Then a decision to back or lay comes into it too.
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tbh, this was obscurely the rationale for my raising this thread back up. Rather than a speculative *why or how*, i was thinking, *wouldn't it be nice if there were some very broad but hard facts that governed each course*.
The idea behind it being that one could then apply their individual logic layers on top of each characteristic (of the course). The end game here isn't to present a definitive guide that says *always back the fave in Windsor*... it's more about, *hmmm - based on this course, I can really see x,y but not z happening here*.
anyway, a lad can dream
Veering off to the left... I have done some work (and still do) with a lovely couple from Kent who visit the parade/paddocks (pre race) as assess the fitness and thus the real odds of the runners in a broad spectrum of races (last week, they were in Newcastle for the 2 days and made spectacular gains based on their specialist knowledge). They no doubt literally also take into account the course (and the finish in particular) when re calibrating the *real* odds.
We've developed an opinionated formula that spits out the odds for such races and bets are placed against those where the variance between the BF odds and the *real* odds breach a threshold. It is spectacular to see it in action!!
So many cats to be skinned!
Conversley does the list have tracks where favs have a poor record ?BigJ wrote: ↑Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:44 amThanksmegarain wrote: ↑Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 amThis list could be endless .. but, v v useful.
From experience, I know a few things.
Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)
The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.