Market Goal Expectation

[LVELLA]

The recent Bet Angel football videos on youtube have raised a few questions in my mind regarding probability/pricing.

From what i understand, the task of building a statistical model can be approached by calculating of an average goal expectation for each team, and then applying a distribution to this average. From there, odds can be calculated and compared to the market. Of course, the most popular distribution is poisson, but im pretty sure ive seen posts from Peter to say poisson is flawed.

Anyway, is it possible to calculate the markets average goal expectation for each team using market pricing? The obvious place to start is the correct score market, but what can be done about games where AOH/D/A are low odds and take up a significant % of the book without giving a specific number of goals for each team?

All of this might not help me in any way, but im interested to look at the markets from this angle just out of curiosity.

Has anyone had any sucess anything like this?