Martingale Revisited

[firlandsfarm]

Well we have a happy conclusion until, as Derek said, the next time! When the next time arises, and it will, I would suggest the protagonist's attention is drawn to "A grain of Wheat and a Chessboard" as the best example of Martingale staking. Ask them to come back with how much money would they need to fund the longest 'expected' losing run +1!

[jamesedwards]

I have an automation going that has a straight up 50/50 chance of winning in each event.

Currently I'm sitting at 15 losing markets in a row (and counting)!

Good job my name's not Martin Gale. If I was and had started at £1 to win £1 I'd be £32,767 in the hole and about to bet £32,768 to try and get to my original £1 profit target.

[jamesedwards]

Now 17(!!!) losing markets in a row.

I would now be £131,071 in the hole and about to bet £131,072 to try and get to my original £1 profit target.

This is why you never never never Martingale!

[MemphisFlash]

This is why you never never never Martingale!

at last someone with sense not to try recovery systems!!!

[firlandsfarm]

Now 17(!!!) losing markets in a row.

I would now be £131,071 in the hole and about to bet £131,072 to try and get to my original £1 profit target.

This is why you never never never Martingale!

Agreed, many (newbie) people just don't realise how quickly the stakes (pun intended! ) rise with every losing bet. Take the longest losing run by favourites since BSP began. After the 20:15 race at Chepstow on 16/08/2018 it was not until the 17:15 race at Dundalk the next day that a favourite won another race … that was 25 races later. And you would have had to resolve a dilemma before placing that last bet … which race? There was also a 17:15 at Nottingham that day! If you had chosen the favourite at Dundalk your stake would have been £1,605,364 and you would have won your £1. Your total stakes to win that £1 would have been £2,263,562! If you had chosen Nottingham your stake would have 'only' been £470,640 but you would have lost and needed a stake of £3,135,666 on the next race (Newmarket 17:25). Yes you would have won your £1 but in total you would have staked £4,264,505 Note: during this losing run 6 odds-on favourites lost!

For interest here is a list of the bets …

25LosingFavourites.png

Now tell yourself this a one off run of non-winning favourites? Well, yes, because it's the longest losing streak since BSP began but long losing runs are not that infrequent. Since BSP has been available (Dec 2007) there has been the following runs of favourites' losing sequences of 10 or more (where losses exceed £500 in the above example requiring another £283 to be bet on the next favourite) …

26 1
23 2
21 2
19 3
20 6
18 6
17 8
16 22
15 27
14 50
13 68
12 105
11 136
10 239

… so maybe not that infrequent, 675 occasions in about 12.75 years … that's more than 50 times per year on average!

If you are still thinking of Martingale go see a 'shrink' first!