firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:09 am
First a diclaimer … I don't see this product as being in competition with BA in any way and therefore feel free to discuss it in an open manner but if BA should disagree then please let me know (with reasons for future reference) and take down this post.
OK, I'm a stats man. Stats are not intelligent. They can't think for themselves. They are not 'alive'. They don't know what the result should be to balance themselves and revert to average so there is no reason why a particular outcome should occur just because it has not recently occurred as frequently as the average. Yes stats of an odds/racing nature often behave within a sine wave pattern. Maybe oscillating within a flat range, an upward trending range or a downward trending range but as share traders will know to their cost while a trend is due to revert towards the average nobody knows when. If it was predictable any losing system could be made profitable by a staking plan based on the predictions!
Having said all that history shows that many stats do revert to and subsequently cross over the average. It's a bit like a share price being over or under the 200 day SMA. They won't always do it and as said the timing can be your enemy but look let's look at Ascot favourites (chosen by the alphabet and not selected to demonstrate a point! ... started at A, rejected Aintree because no flat racing) …
AscotFavourites.png
… This shows the percentage of favourites winning their races year by year. (OK they should really have been column charts but the 'line' has more impact!).
The thing that strikes me is the volatility of Chase and Hurdle races compared with the relative smoothness of Turf.
I'm not suggesting that this is a betting system, no way. Only an idiot would follow such a system for a year based on such flimsy evidence but it could be a parameter in a compound system.
Many of us here already have the data RSA has, and if not there are threads on this forum showing how and where to obtain it for free but there is no guidance how to add value to the data by analysing it. Also I am impressed by the speed of the data in the videos, much faster than mine!
I don't trade but I can't see how the data could be of value to trading but I can see it will save system bettors the time of accumulating and updating the data and the effort to create and maintain the interrogation and presentation software. The shortcomings for me are that I found the videos do not clearly explain what the presenter is doing, they are not polished and seem unrehearsed making them frustrating for me to follow with my attention being drawn to "what the hell is he doing now" as opposed to "that's interesting"! And there doesn't seem to be a way to share the findings/selections with the outside world. I don't seem to be able to dump the information into Excel and feed it across to BA.
For anyone without a Personal database ,‘ every little helps’. Good to know others are using it. Atleast didn’t waste my lockdown hours looking into RSA.
Reverting to the mean is All relative to the time frames one chooses. And especially in a world where everything is in constant motion, data analysis can be used as a navigation tool.A compass to find your current position and map your way forward.
It becomes more useful when one chooses anchor points very close to the true average ,Around the oscillatory line And I believe in this case the SP is that line.
The vwap , is also candidate .
In the graphs above you can clearly see the volatility variations In their true glory, and as any trader knows it’s always good to place your entry and exit points within a certain range depending on the volatility.
In this case you have decided to follow the performance of the favs win percentage year by year, therefore your trading window is yearly.
So why do I call it trading and not gumbling?
Though you are not closing your trades , they do close themselves and you get a win or a loss, but that doesn’t bother you, because you have your data pointers and anchors guiding you. It’s part of a larger plan which should eventually show a Green P/L.
When does a trade becomes an investment? And when does a trade become a gumble?
Luck of data guidance will turn it into a gumble, and only very risky and expensive staKing plans can pull you out of the ‘deep sea‘.
On the other hand, a trade Could go sour and you decide to let it become a gumble and then use data to make it part of an investment plan. This way you are not afraid of chasing the big swing trades, because you have an investment plan in case it goes against you.
As you well know , human psychology is part of the pricing index. Fears will stop you from winning big and only exit a trade when you have lost too much after riding a wave hoping to get a mean reversal.
Having data gives you that extra courage, for bold moves.
As for the very short term traders who are scalpers and short swingers ,This will help if you are looking at a bigger picture.,eg. You can look at how the same race has been giving you certain consistent pointers, depending on the historical data and then trade aaccordingly. Let’s say your data says , there has never been winner with less than an sp of 2 0, and the favourite has won the last 7 out of 10 races. You could then automate a back 2 lay bot if all horses are above 2.0...Etc.
As for the videos I agree , there is a room for improvement, I think it’s always good to leave him a comment, just like we do over here .
So far I am not restricting myself to a certain narrow view. I need to get as much general info and then ,cut my niche .I could bet wrong ,that’s my take , only one side of the story.
)
, 