Best Staking Plan?

[DanMcWilliams]

I'm trying to find a way to maximise profits and minimise losses with my dutching strategy.

I back to a maximum of 50% of the book(usually between 40%-50-%), and have a strike rate of 61% over a sample of 500 races.
The best way i have thought so far is to bet 10% of a starting bank of £100.(I have more in my main bank) So my first bet would be £10 and lets just say i back at 50%, so Evens. To a target profit/loss of £60. From what i can figure out it would take a 5 streak to win, and a 9 streak to lose. I'm aware there are many variations .

WINNING STREAK

BET 1. bet 10 - WIN - Bank 110
BET 2. bet 11 - WIN - Bank 121
BET 3. Bet 12.10 WIN - Bank 133.10
BET 4. bet 13.31 WIN -Bank 146.41
BET 5. Bet 14.64 WIN - Bank 161.05

LOSING STREAK

BET 1. bet 10 - LOSE - Bank 90
BET 2. bet 9 - LOSE - Bank 81
BET 3. bet 8.10 - LOSE - Bank 72.90
BET 4. bet 7.29 - LOSE - Bank 65.61
BET 5. bet 6.56- LOSE - Bank 59.05
BET 6. bet 5.90 - LOSE - Bank 53.15
BET 7. bet 5.31 - LOSE - Bank 47.84
BET 8. bet 4.78 - LOSE - Bank 43.06
BET 9. bet 4.30 - LOSE - Bank 38.76

Is it better to try for a different target profit?

Is there a better staking plan to maximise profits?

Any help would be appreciated.

[Derek27]

I'm trying to find a way to maximise profits and minimise losses with my dutching strategy.

I back to a maximum of 50% of the book(usually between 40%-50-%), and have a strike rate of 61% over a sample of 500 races.
The best way i have thought so far is to bet 10% of a starting bank of £100.(I have more in my main bank) So my first bet would be £10 and lets just say i back at 50%, so Evens. To a target profit/loss of £60. From what i can figure out it would take a 5 streak to win, and a 9 streak to lose. I'm aware there are many variations .

WINNING STREAK

BET 1. bet 10 - WIN - Bank 110
BET 2. bet 11 - WIN - Bank 121
BET 3. Bet 12.10 WIN - Bank 133.10
BET 4. bet 13.31 WIN -Bank 146.41
BET 5. Bet 14.64 WIN - Bank 161.05

LOSING STREAK

BET 1. bet 10 - LOSE - Bank 90
BET 2. bet 9 - LOSE - Bank 81
BET 3. bet 8.10 - LOSE - Bank 72.90
BET 4. bet 7.29 - LOSE - Bank 65.61
BET 5. bet 6.56- LOSE - Bank 59.05
BET 6. bet 5.90 - LOSE - Bank 53.15
BET 7. bet 5.31 - LOSE - Bank 47.84
BET 8. bet 4.78 - LOSE - Bank 43.06
BET 9. bet 4.30 - LOSE - Bank 38.76

Is it better to try for a different target profit?

Is there a better staking plan to maximise profits?

Any help would be appreciated.

My advice would be to bet 10% of your remaining bank, not £10. That way no losing streak will break your bank, your bets just get smaller.

If you lose half your bank, you're down to £50 but continue to bet £10 you're really doubling your stake because you'd be betting 20% of your bank

[Atho55]

This might give you a few ideas. It contains some old stuff of mine as examples.

You could run this as a daily exercise rather than after every race as an option.

Maria Lay Spreadsheet.7z

[ShaunWhite]

My advice would be to bet 10% of your remaining bank, not £10. That way no losing streak will break your bank, your bets just get smaller.

Looking at his example that's exactly what he's doing already.

OP be careful of confusing staking with money management. If you're worried about running out of money then stake 10%, but if your strategy works assuming level staking (as all events are unrelated), then the only staking "plan" that makes sense is to get as much on as you can. These 'staking plans' are appealing to people trying to turn losers into winners but when people have a winning strategy they don't mess about and just get stuck in. Bottom line is that you don't know which markets will be losers and which won't, so if you start trying to second guess that and stake differently from one market to the next you've either fallen foul of the Gambler's Falacy or you've got a crystal ball.

[Derek27]

My advice would be to bet 10% of your remaining bank, not £10. That way no losing streak will break your bank, your bets just get smaller.

Looking at his example that's exactly what he's doing already.

OP be careful of confusing staking with money management. If you're worried about running out of money then stake 10%, but if your strategy works assuming level staking (as all events are unrelated), then the only staking "plan" that makes sense is to get as much on as you can. These 'staking plans' are appealing to people trying to turn losers into winners but when people have a winning strategy they don't mess about and just get stuck in. Bottom line is that you don't know which markets will be losers and which won't, so if you start trying to second guess that and stake differently from one market to the next you've either fallen foul of the Gambler's Falacy or you've got a crystal ball.

I'm with you now (or the OP, I should say), I missed the £60 target. Surely then, the best strategy is to push forward as things are with a high strike-rate. It shouldn't matter how many winners or losers you get in a row as long as the ratio of winners to losers is good.

[MemphisFlash]

not this chestnut again!!!
if you use a staking plan you will lose money!!!
FACT!!!

[DanMcWilliams]

not this chestnut again!!!
if you use a staking plan you will lose money!!!
FACT!!!

Care to explain how?

If I have a 60% strike rate and have an fixed amount staking plan, mathematically i would make money.

[jimibt]

I think your approach of using 10% per race is fine. of course, a strikerate and a ROI are very different things, so it will really depend on how often you vear on the offside of your 50% book. However, on balance and based on the facts, I'd change little/nothing on the staking front.

i would say tho that 500 races may not be enough data, especially as this year has been pretty fragmented. find some backtesting tools which will allow you to model your strategy (in combo with paper trading). Digging into 2-3 years worth of data should iron out any wrinkles.

good luck

[jimibt]

not this chestnut again!!!
if you use a staking plan you will lose money!!!
FACT!!!

true - i remember you mentioning that you use level stakes -lol

FICTION!!!

[Derek27]

not this chestnut again!!!
if you use a staking plan you will lose money!!!
FACT!!!

Care to explain how?

If I have a 60% strike rate and have an fixed amount staking plan, mathematically i would make money.

He's talking complete bollocks again and doesn't know what a staking plan is - he previously confused the Kelly Criterion with the Martingale!