Trading What I see !?

[to75ne]

Hey chaps, just think I'm keeping all you lot in profit

your not, unless your losing thousands every session.

[ruthlessimon]

I am looking at all the other runners yes, I just get it wrong half the time! And when I do it just seems to go against me so quick!

On average, at what time do you normally get involved (i.e. your first entry)?

On average I'd say around 8mins to go, if that's what you mean?

8mins is crazy early!!!

[Jukebox]

Hey chaps, just think I'm keeping all you lot in profit

It might be helpful to you to keep it in mind that everything you match is the opposite of what someone else wanted.

[goat68]

On average, at what time do you normally get involved (i.e. your first entry)?

On average I'd say around 8mins to go, if that's what you mean?

8mins is crazy early!!!

You are joking yes? Most of PW videos enter around there...?

[Trader Pat]

Most races are perfectly tradable from 10 mins out. The liquidity obviously picks up the nearer you get to post but if you leave it too late to enter a market you can miss out on some really good moves.

[to75ne]

Please, please tell me how to tell the difference between a temp pullback and it genuinely turning against me...????

always watch the money on the horse your trading, if the money temporary "drys" up the price will pullback 2/3/4/5/6 ticks or so for a second to several seconds. this happens a lot the further out from the off when the market as not really formed kinda of still finding its shape. the further out from the off the money arrives in little clumps/lumps and then drys up, then a bit more flops in and then drys up[ and so on, which can lots of minor pull backs/noise.

while a race inplay, it can cause money to stop arriving/dry up in the next pre off market, causing pullbacks.

a move (mostly nminor) on another horse - largish chunk or several smaller chunks of money on another horse for instance can cause your selection to pull back, but once the money on the other horse gets taken and drys up, the price on your horse will invariably recover its previous direction.

your selection playing up momentarily (nothing serious) or another horse or horses, rattles the market, or a stupid comment by a pundit/commentator, rattles the market and momentarily causes bets to be pulled, and/ or place on other runners only be be pulled again once the market as absorbed all the info correctly.

unusually large orders appearing seemingly out of nowhere, and then getting pulled.

and the general ebb and flow opinions are always changing for who knows why? but you need the general ebb and flow for the market to move, thats what you trade the market moving around. there are many many reasons, you need to be able to read the market, until then scratch for little losses, your bank will survive and your brain will ache a lot less.

[smallplayer]

correct me if i am wrong but you do not seem to know/be able to judge (yet) reasonably accurately when the horse your trading the odds are about to/or are genuinely turning against your position and not just a temp pull back.

are you looking at what is happening to the prices on the the other runners? the price move on any horse is rarely independent of the price moves of the other runners. until you can "read" the move on your selection in relation to whole market (its a closed system) and reasonably predict its direction with some certainty, would you not be better quickly scratching those that are clearly going against you - taking loads of small losses, rather than letting the price go against you, risking a largish or large or a very large loss, hoping (which is pointless) it will turn around and make everything alright?

thats the best advice you're gonna get today Goat

[goat68]

Please, please tell me how to tell the difference between a temp pullback and it genuinely turning against me...????

always watch the money on the horse your trading, if the money temporary "drys" up the price will pullback 2/3/4/5/6 ticks or so for a second to several seconds. this happens a lot the further out from the off when the market as not really formed kinda of still finding its shape. the further out from the off the money arrives in little clumps/lumps and then drys up, then a bit more flops in and then drys up[ and so on, which can lots of minor pull backs/noise.

while a race inplay, it can cause money to stop arriving/dry up in the next pre off market, causing pullbacks.

a move (mostly nminor) on another horse - largish chunk or several smaller chunks of money on another horse for instance can cause your selection to pull back, but once the money on the other horse gets taken and drys up, the price on your horse will invariably recover its previous direction.

your selection playing up momentarily (nothing serious) or another horse or horses, rattles the market, or a stupid comment by a pundit/commentator, rattles the market and momentarily causes bets to be pulled, and/ or place on other runners only be be pulled again once the market as absorbed all the info correctly.

unusually large orders appearing seemingly out of nowhere, and then getting pulled.

and the general ebb and flow opinions are always changing for who knows why? but you need the general ebb and flow for the market to move, thats what you trade the market moving around. there are many many reasons, you need to be able to read the market, until then scratch for little losses, your bank will survive and your brain will ache a lot less.

Great advice thank you, it's given me a different perspective I hadn't thought of
Cheers

[iambic_pentameter]

OP

I've not been through the whole thread, but you also need to do a lot of screen time to understand the markets - the summer markets and winter markets behave very differently and you need to go through multiple market cycles until you understand how it works.

At this stage, focus on learning how the market moves, executing your trades and protecting your bank.

Once you've got that, you'll have consistency and then the money will follow.

Iambic

[Kai]

@Goat68

People are obviously very eager to help with all sorts of advice and tips that worked for them personally, but there's no guarantee that any of that will work for you.

Having an absolute overkill of advice isn't necessarily a good thing either imho, as it can send you running around in circles chasing your own tail and your losses while superficially trying out different approaches and drastically changing your strategies etc, and you can easily become overreliant on others. Ideally you only want a little bit of concrete advice and pick stuff up on your own along the way, should be by far best way to learn, with genuine live market experience.

Getting bullied by speculative markets is a process that everyone has to go through because speculative markets are usually counter-intuitive, there's another person in the cricket thread as well with some hefty losses, different sport but same market characteristics and same process.

Speaking of random advice, one way to rise above the market noise would be to identify long-term trends if they exist, because not everything is as you say random, there is a clear structure to how speculative markets behave and trade, but nobody is silly enough to ELY5 for obvious reasons.

[ShaunWhite]

8mins is crazy early!!!

Classic case of conflicting advice, I'd say 20-15mins out is a decent time for a new person to have a small trade or two. The markets are relatively stable or slightly trending whereas once the previous race finishes and horses are parading it can be bedlam with punters and traders chucking £000s around. Goat68 certainly isn't experienced enough to know when big money is likely to arrive that might smash his position all over the place and he's not fast enough yet to deal with it when it does. Stay on the nursery slopes for a while, the last few minutes are the black run with all sorts of dangers and the added pressure of the market expiry hurlting towards you at breakneck speed. Trading the last few mins might be fine for someone as experienced as Simon but personally I wouldn't suggest throwing a new person in the deep end.

goat68 you have to remember that Peter is a 20yr veteren showing you how a 20yr veteren trades, it's completely and uttery impossible for you to trade like he does at this stage. How a pro trades isn't always where a beginner should start. Keeping up the sporting analogies, you can't practice your backhand in the heat of a game, so find yourself a nice quiet little market somewhere well out from the race start, and practice a few simple little moves. When you get reasonably good and start thinking faster then you might be able to progress to when the market is more volatile and more money is flying around.

People only trade late because that's where you can make the most money, but obvioulsy that means you can lose the most money there too if you're not ready for it.

There you go, 2 completely opposing views.

[Jukebox]

Classic case ....
[/quote]

Oh Shaun you missed an opportunity to use 'going off piste'

[ruthlessimon]

8mins is crazy early!!!

Classic case of conflicting advice, I'd say 20-15mins out is a decent time for a new person to have a small trade or two.

Of course you'd say that you're a market maker

If I'm swinging (diving across the spread etc) 15mins out, I'm putting the food on your table Sure it's gonna be a slow market, but it's also gonna be a super random market. I coulda written this exact thread if I was swinging that far out, hence my query on the timing.

The place the market makers don't like, is the last few mins (especially on gb) - maybe because the swings aren't as random as people think. Yah get it wrong, you'll lose money very very fast, but there's always two sides to a trade.

That said, I wouldn't recommend live trading (in any form) (at any time) until we've either been mentored, or done several out-sample backtests

[goat68]

Todays work at cutting losses, using small stakes!
My aim was keep greend wins >£1, losses <£1
Being Monday markets were slow and probably not best for swings.

4 wins : AVG £0.98
6 losses : AVG -£0.73
Net : -£0.45

I was was pleased with that

I'm enjoying the comments, thanks

[Euler]

I hated today, weak markets and a lack of fill. I completely obliterated Saturday.

Mondays are weak, but today was very weak. So you did well if you kept your nose clean today.