Something that doesn't make sense to me

[alexmr2]

I'm still very early on in my trading journey but something I often see in pre-off markets which doesn't make sense to me is when the favourite is ranging sideways (say between 4-5 or 5-6) all day with the traded volume and liquidity being pretty uniform. It then comes to the last 2 or 3 minutes and is at the bottom of the range and I am trying to trade it back up to the top however there will be someone desperate to get money matched near the bottom of the range on the back side (usually with over 1k) which holds the price down at the bottom until the off.

Why would they be so desperate to take the worst price of the day with bigger money if nothing else has changed is what I'm trying to say? On it's own from a value perspective this makes no sense to me but perhaps it's just a knock-on effect of crossmatching and traders exiting their positions which overrides logic?

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[ShaunWhite]

Why would they be so desperate to take the worst price of the day

Horses are flesh and blood animals not just a statistic, if you're going to put a serious bet on a horse you want to see the whites of it's eyes before you hand the money over. You can guess at what the price should be from how it's performed before and take a price early, or wait until you have a better idea of how it looks on the day and judge the price then.

There's a bit of a myth that smart money arrives early, smart money arrives when there's as few variables left as possible. If you've punted on course you'll have seen the people holding the biggest wads will sometimes wait until the last few seconds, especially if the horse is known to be tempremental getting a few % more in the morning doesn't outweigh the risk.

If in doubt there's a guy here called Jimi who's worked with some of the finest judges of a horse in the business, they're at the parade ring not guessing at prices in the morning.

[Derek27]

I'm still very early on in my trading journey but something I often see in pre-off markets which doesn't make sense to me is when the favourite is ranging sideways (say between 4-5 or 5-6) all day with the traded volume and liquidity being pretty uniform. It then comes to the last 2 or 3 minutes and is at the bottom of the range and I am trying to trade it back up to the top however there will be someone desperate to get money matched near the bottom of the range on the back side (usually with over 1k) which holds the price down at the bottom until the off.

Why would they be so desperate to take the worst price of the day with bigger money if nothing else has changed is what I'm trying to say? On it's own from a value perspective this makes no sense to me but perhaps it's just a knock-on effect of crossmatching and traders exiting their positions which overrides logic?


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One of the clues lies in the volume bars at the bottom of the graph. Somebody who wants a serious bet has no choice but to wait till near off time because money's not available early and any large bet would frighten the market.

I used to make money punting by spotting value the night before and get my £5-10 bets on but scaling up I'd have no chance of getting £50-100 on at a decent price until late morning. That was years ago, now the markets are even quieter hours before the off.

[Wolf1877]

I used to make money punting by spotting value the night before and get my £5-10 bets on but scaling up I'd have no chance of getting £50-100 on at a decent price until late morning. That was years ago, now the markets are even quieter hours before the off.

IMO you have probably got a far better chance of taking an early doors value bet with a bot than you have of offering an early doors value bet and getting it matched. If you offer the money at what you consider to be a value price and it does get taken early doors then its also probably also a very strong sign that the price is headed towards even greater value.

[Derek27]

I used to make money punting by spotting value the night before and get my £5-10 bets on but scaling up I'd have no chance of getting £50-100 on at a decent price until late morning. That was years ago, now the markets are even quieter hours before the off.

IMO you have probably got a far better chance of taking an early doors value bet with a bot than you have of offering an early doors value bet and getting it matched. If you offer the money at what you consider to be a value price and it does get taken early doors then its also probably also a very strong sign that the price is headed towards even greater value.

That's true from a trader's point of view. If you're a punter a reckon a horse has at least an 8/1 chance, it's trading in the 20s, it makes sense to get a few quid on. If it goes significantly higher, have a bit more on. The advantage of being a punter who studies racing rather than the markets is that you have a much higher level of confidence when you see value.

[Andriy]

There's a bit of a myth that smart money arrives early, smart money arrives when there's as few variables left as possible. If you've punted on course you'll have seen the people holding the biggest wads will sometimes wait until the last few seconds, especially if the horse is known to be tempremental getting a few % more in the morning doesn't outweigh the risk.

Watching the horse go down to the start for their action: very necessary for newcomers / maidens etc, also important in ground extremes eg if form is on good/good to firm, and ground is now soft etc.

[LinusP]

It's all about market capacity, the syndicates moving the markets in the last 5 minutes aren't watching, their predictions are based off data. They are playing the numbers game thus want to push as much money through the markets as possible.

2hrs before even 20 minutes before the market can't take anything without the price collapsing, it's not until the last few minutes that it's possible to get matched with large amounts. Of course there ROI is far far higher the morning of or 2hrs before but if they can only get a few hundred matched then there is no point, its better to wait and take a lower ROI but a much higher profit (long term)

[jimibt]

It's all about market capacity, the syndicates moving the markets in the last 5 minutes aren't watching, their predictions are based off data. They are playing the numbers game thus want to push as much money through the markets as possible.

2hrs before even 20 minutes before the market can't take anything without the price collapsing, it's not until the last few minutes that it's possible to get matched with large amounts. Of course there ROI is far far higher the morning of or 2hrs before but if they can only get a few hundred matched then there is no point, its better to wait and take a lower ROI but a much higher profit (long term)

Liam - is there a fingerprint that can be observed in this activity, thus allowing for piggybacking on the wisdom of the syndicates??

[Atho55]

I would be interested to hear opinions on the logic behind lump sat at Best-7 Back

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[Jukebox]

I would be interested to hear opinions on the logic behind lump sat at Best-7 Back

Best-7£.jpg

1.8 is currently the most popular bookie offering - including BF Sportsbook.

[Atho55]

I was wondering what the strategy might be with placing money away from Best. It happens a lot around that point.

[Jukebox]

I was wondering what the strategy might be with placing money away from Best. It happens a lot around that point.

There are worse strategies than trying to get the same price that the bookie is offering.

[LinusP]

It's all about market capacity, the syndicates moving the markets in the last 5 minutes aren't watching, their predictions are based off data. They are playing the numbers game thus want to push as much money through the markets as possible.

2hrs before even 20 minutes before the market can't take anything without the price collapsing, it's not until the last few minutes that it's possible to get matched with large amounts. Of course there ROI is far far higher the morning of or 2hrs before but if they can only get a few hundred matched then there is no point, its better to wait and take a lower ROI but a much higher profit (long term)

Liam - is there a fingerprint that can be observed in this activity, thus allowing for piggybacking on the wisdom of the syndicates??

Some are just time based, if seconds to start = x, however a lot are constantly experimenting to reduce their impact with random starts / amounts / taking vs being passive / waiting for opportunities so it can be tricky to try and put into a strategy. When I see videos of manual traders such as Peter its obvious they can subconsciously see this trading flow happening and ignore the noise.

[jimibt]

It's all about market capacity, the syndicates moving the markets in the last 5 minutes aren't watching, their predictions are based off data. They are playing the numbers game thus want to push as much money through the markets as possible.

2hrs before even 20 minutes before the market can't take anything without the price collapsing, it's not until the last few minutes that it's possible to get matched with large amounts. Of course there ROI is far far higher the morning of or 2hrs before but if they can only get a few hundred matched then there is no point, its better to wait and take a lower ROI but a much higher profit (long term)

Liam - is there a fingerprint that can be observed in this activity, thus allowing for piggybacking on the wisdom of the syndicates??

Some are just time based, if seconds to start = x, however a lot are constantly experimenting to reduce their impact with random starts / amounts / taking vs being passive / waiting for opportunities so it can be tricky to try and put into a strategy. When I see videos of manual traders such as Peter its obvious they can subconsciously see this trading flow happening and ignore the noise.

yeah, i guess trying to stand on their shoulders will by virtue mean that you are potentially always taking prices on offer, rather than knowing thro research if there's value on offer.

[jamesedwards]

I would be interested to hear opinions on the logic behind lump sat at Best-7 Back

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I do this sometimes when I want to take SP. I whack the price out 10 clicks or so vs current position then set to take SP. That way I might catch a decent value drift but most likely I expect to get SP. Could be other people doing this.