Today's Cricket

[Emmson]

Hi all,

I'm new. I did my bank on the last test due to the draw. Looking to get my confidence back.

Anyway, draw hit 2.0 last night (while I was in bed). I am still dumbfounded by why it got so low. It was priced as if England were going to bat to 2000 and Pakistan never have a first innings. This was obviously corrected very shortly after, spiking to 4.5.

What I want to know is, how do you manage this rediculous overselling? Knowing that the weather looks good for at least 4 days (not great, just better than last test) and facing a draw at odds of 2.5. Laying at 2.5, watching it plummet to 2. Do you double down at that stage? This is how i wiped out my bank last time.

Right now the draw still looks like good value at 4.0. Unless Pakistan put up a good first innings total (highly unlikely looking at their odds of 580) they'll possibly follow on and it will be all over before the last day, which is when the forecast says there is the most chance of rain.

I guess the risk is that the game lasts to the final day and then gets rained out. How do you manage this risk? I feel like there will be opportunities in the next 2-3 days to get the draw at lower than 4, but any further wickets will only spike it and bad weather will be the only chance for it to come back down.

Market will react to hourly weather forecast updates and there are manipulators out there with huge banks driving the price up and down sometimes, also often around 11.00pm the trading ladder starts to thin out of orders as people in UK head to sleep & this encourages some bizarre moves during the small hours. This will likely happen tonight with Eng & Draw prices so close together It can be maddening/frustrating/wonderful and human beings have to sleep and its always worry what you are going to wake up to if you have open positions. Anyways much of what you mention has been borne out on this 3rd test and you maybe have a good position.

This has been a very tricky game to trade for sure, I'll be very careful from here.

[abgespaced]

much of what you mention has been borne out on this 3rd test and you maybe have a good position.

Nope, I f***ed up again. Laid the draw at 4 prior to Azhar Ali's freak score not out to England's disappointing bowling. I went to bed after it dropped to 2.78 and lucky I did because it went to 1.48 while i was asleep. If I was awake then I would have freaked out. I woke up in the middle of the night because I couldn't sleep I was too stressed about it, to see Pakistan still batting

Even after they were bowled out draw odds stayed at around 2, where I got out. I am sitting at: Draw -$800 England -$650 Pakistan -$650. All red.

I am really struggling. I don't know what it is, but it feels like everything goes the opposite direction the second I get into the market. To date I have never been in the green after trading the draw. People go on about how the draw is almost always overbacked, and that you would be going against the probabilities if you backed it, but I tell you a be rolling in greens if I had backed instead of laid these last 2 test matches.

I thought this test would at least behave a little differently to the last one. We have had 3 solid days of play, a follow on on Day 3, with 2 days left to bowl out a single side. It's just doing my head in!!! How can the draw be at sub 2.0 right now? Doesn't seem right, and yet I've been burned every time I take it on.

[Emmson]

Big move on Eng when I was asleep driven by weather forecast updates as I was saying happens.

PRUDENCE has to be the watchword here.

[Emmson]

Just not enough test matches, back to hunting for fivers and tenners on white ball cricket after tomorrow.

[Emmson]

That will take a lot of clearing up before tomorrow, not sure they can.

[abgespaced]

Nice greens you have there. How did you learn? I've read the cricket guide on Caan Berry's website. But I think years of experience is what I'm missing. I just keep making error after error.

It's a roll of the dice with the weather tomorrow. Clearing up by start of play, but like yesterday when I thought the start would be delayed by a good 2-3 hours based on the rain forecast, they started on time. So who knows. They have a full day if they start on time but given the pom's fielding performance I have my doubts that they can get them all out in that time.

I'm staying out of it.

[abgespaced]

Really weird price movements this morning at 6:50 UK time.

Draw price goes from 1.70 to 1.90 and back down to 1.70 in the space of 2 minutes.

3 ticks of back and lay bets moving up and down with each other.

What is this? Is this Betfair bots balancing the overround? Manipulation?

No change in whether forecast shifts the price that dramatically in the space of 2 minutes.

I don't get it.

It rules out the idea of pre-match trading. It's just too bizarre and disconnected from reality.

On that note, I have no idea how I'm going to learn to trade these markets. So far it's been a very costly exercise. Any pointers?

[LeTiss]

I'm amazed the draw is drifting so badly. Pakistan still have 8 wickets left and the weather forecast in Southampton is pretty poor

[LeTiss]

Those overnight bots laying the draw, clearly don't have weather forecasts built into their conditions

The rain is pouring in Southampton, the skies are very grey. This looks set for the day

[LeTiss]

Layed England at 2.40 this morning. Just greened at 3.30

Unbelievable amounts of bot activity, but clearly from outside the UK, as they hadn't even contemplated the fact we may only get 2-3 hours play today

[abgespaced]

Yes, it looks set. But...

Rain is easing,

Draw is low value,

And..

Do you trust Pakistan to not be bowled out in the play we do have?

[wearthefoxhat]

Yes, it looks set. But...

Rain is easing,

Draw is low value,

And..

Do you trust Pakistan to not be bowled out in the play we do have?

My view is, if there is play, Anderson will be fired up to get his 600th test wicket. If that happens early on, then the overcast, swinging bowling conditions, could yield some quick wickets. It's then just a question if Pakistan can hold on, or more bad weather delays further play.

Lots of ifs/buts and maybes...

[wearthefoxhat]

Latest weather predictions.

weather.jpg

[abgespaced]

Still raining for another half hour. Watch the draw go to 1.1

Should be an easy lay once it bottoms out and they start playing. Whenever that is.

[LeTiss]

How many people read the weather forecast before trading the final day of a Test Match?........I'd expect everyone with a trading head, especially those using bots for thousands of pounds.

Why on earth was the draw trading at 1.75 this morning, when it was clear that was going to be no play before midday when you look outside a Southampton window

It's been backed in 50 ticks

Unbelievable