Elon Musk & Neuralink

[Big Bad Barney]

How does that argument go? My first thought is that it only makes trading easier for those who are the fastest?

I'm thinking something like overround on preoff.

A constantly tight spread/no gaps, is clearly a sign of efficiency, but it's an absolute necessity for someone to be a profitable taker.

Yep, and more generally if prices didn't move to where they should be when something happens then you wouldn't stand much chance of predicting it. Risk/reward calcs would be impossible without well behaved tight markets.

But you've just spelled out why efficient markets suit the fastest player? To me that doesn't correlate with easier...(unless you are the fastest guy around). To me easier, is something that ends up at the correct point eventually, but meanders to get there... the point of inefficiency where profit is...

Maybe my understanding of the term efficient market is incorrect, or i'm arguing semantics...I better go google it before I sound like a noob ... but my batteries going flat...what a conundrum...

[ruthlessimon]

I'm thinking something like overround on preoff.

A constantly tight spread/no gaps, is clearly a sign of efficiency, but it's an absolute necessity for someone to be a profitable taker.

Yep, and more generally if prices didn't move to where they should be when something happens then you wouldn't stand much chance of predicting it. Risk/reward calcs would be impossible without well behaved tight markets.

But you've just spelled out why efficient markets suit the fastest player? To me that doesn't correlate with easier...

Most traders will never recommend taking prices. 90% of people (& the HFTers) are gonna struggle to understand how a taker can be profitable - because the entry's too easy.

[Big Bad Barney]

Most traders will never recommend taking prices. 90% of people (& the HFTers) are gonna struggle to understand how a taker can be profitable - because the entry's too easy.

I must admit I am not entirely sure what you mean by the entries to easy....I clearly have many things to learn haha, but I did get time to google it now...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/ma ... ciency.asp
This website says there are three degrees of market efficiency. Of which everyone disagree's on...

It seems an efficient market is about all information being known. I was thinking it was about pure price. I think there is a small difference.

[Big Bad Barney]

Most traders will never recommend taking prices. 90% of people (& the HFTers) are gonna struggle to understand how a taker can be profitable - because the entry's too easy.

I must admit I am not entirely sure what you mean by the entry is to easy....I clearly have many things to learn haha, but I did get time to google it now...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/ma ... ciency.asp
This website says there are three degrees of market efficiency. Of which everyone disagree's on...

It seems an efficient market is about all information being known. I was thinking it was about pure price. I think there is a small difference.

[ruthlessimon]

Most traders will never recommend taking prices. 90% of people (& the HFTers) are gonna struggle to understand how a taker can be profitable - because the entry's too easy.

I must admit I am not entirely sure what you mean by the entries to easy

I say easy because there's no assumptions involved with taking. I click, I'm in. Click I'm out. Whereas if I offer, the money infront of me has to be filled 1st, which imho makes the trade slightly harder

[Big Bad Barney]

I say easy because there's no assumptions involved with taking. I click, I'm in. Click I'm out. Whereas if I offer, the money infront of me has to be filled 1st, which imho makes the trade slightly harder

ahh ic, well, I guess that makes sense, but...say..ya still gotta make assumptions its gonna go the right way for ya...

To me, taking is like choosing your position later in the game... because with making, you can always pull at the last moment should your assumptions turn wrong...(not always so easy without automation).

I suppose tho, in the grand scheme of things, I just wonder what manual traders have that computers don't...AI, is obviously very difficult, expensive, possibly prohibitively so (although I doubt that would stop many people trying). I don't know how my brain works, but it feels like I am possibly just a giant trial and error machine with some biases to shortcut decisions...

The only thing I can really think of is faster observation of fundamentalist happenings..and for now, a better computer...

[ruthlessimon]

AI, is obviously very difficult, expensive

Exactly. Personally I don't think we should worry too much. I'm convinced they're already in the market; & from what I've heard, AI level players are quiting faster than they're joining atm

But like with any job, the money we make should ideally be hedged into other sources of income - in case there is a change out of our control. No industry, no single strategy is 100% secure

[jamesg46]

I suppose tho, in the grand scheme of things, I just wonder what manual traders have that computers don't...AI, is obviously very difficult, expensive, possibly prohibitively so (although I doubt that would stop many people trying). I don't know how my brain works, but it feels like I am possibly just a giant trial and error machine with some biases to shortcut decisions...

This is how a manual traders brain works. The brain is a universe, the eyes are black holes & the markets are energy (information) being sucked into those black holes creating a model or what I like to think of as reality.

A computer on the other hand is only as good as its operator, it cant perceive what it hasn't been told & then its reliant on the quality of the original information.

[Big Bad Barney]

AI, is obviously very difficult, expensive

But like with any job, the money we make should ideally be hedged into other sources of income - in case there is a change out of our control. No industry, no single strategy is 100% secure

Yeah, I think that's good advice.

Not sure if it's better to sleep with one eye open or just deal with it if it happens...because I guess just cause it hasn't happened yet isn't a good argument that it isn't going to...

There's much I don't know but my thinking is that a human brain is just a computer, so don't see why a silicon computer can't catch up at some point... be it 30, 60, 200, 3000 years from now...but it's comforting to hear AI people might be quitting. The Musk's hive mind thing (he was talking about much more simplistic applications in that video)... The whole hog... I would think going to Mars would be many times more easier...

[Big Bad Barney]

This is how a manual traders brain works. The brain is a universe, the eyes are black holes & the markets are energy (information) being sucked into those black holes creating a model or what I like to think of as reality.

Sounds horrible

[jamesg46]

This is how a manual traders brain works. The brain is a universe, the eyes are black holes & the markets are energy (information) being sucked into those black holes creating a model or what I like to think of as reality.

Sounds horrible

[jamesg46]

https://youtu.be/DVvmgjBL74w

Live example.

[StellaBot]

Mind over Matter

Mind has existed many years
Mind has produced Matter
Matter has Never produced a Mind

[StellaBot]

To Elaborate

Chicken/s Mind
Produce egg outcome = Matter

2ND outcome =Chicken

Dont need computers or algos

TY

[StellaBot]

I shall rephrase

The Human invented MRI and CT scan for brain
Does Elon smell like Avon, Elon OR Musk?


I