Huge stakes on lay side of 1.01 odds every time

[tiberigc]

Why are there huge amounts of money laid on 1.01 odds for every horse? Example: https://i.imgur.com/XWLu2Gs.png

The winner had about 1.5k euro matched https://i.imgur.com/zZC0Lh6.png

Why do people do this?

[spreadbetting]

Lots of 1.01's get turned over so being first in the queue means you have best chance of being matched. Plus many prices hit 1.01 and bounce out again, so many in play bettors will load up the price points with their bets in the knowledge there's no delay in cancelling bets but a 1 second delay placing them.

[Derek27]

Why are there huge amounts of money laid on 1.01 odds for every horse? Example: https://i.imgur.com/XWLu2Gs.png

The winner had about 1.5k euro matched https://i.imgur.com/zZC0Lh6.png

Why do people do this?

At odds of 1.01 you're only risking £1 to win £100. So somebody who's happy to risk £50 would stake £5000 at those odds.

[tiberigc]

Lots of 1.01's get turned over so being first in the queue means you have best chance of being matched. Plus many prices hit 1.01 and bounce out again, so many in play bettors will load up the price points with their bets in the knowledge there's no delay in cancelling bets but a 1 second delay placing them.

the way I understand it is that the "backers" will profit from this by matching a 99,99% sure of winning bet, so they might risk 1000$ to win 10$... but the only way a layer wins is if the price comes down to 1.01, gets matched by a backer and then bounces back from 1.01 to another price.. how often does this really happen to justify those humongous amounts laid at 1.01?

[spreadbetting]

In August there have been 15 losing 1.01's on the UK and IRE racing win markets, pretty sure that's more than 0.01% (100-99.99) of all races, I don't have stats for how many hit 1.01 and bounced out and went on to win.

[ShaunWhite]

Why are there huge amounts of money laid on 1.01 odds for every horse? Example: https://i.imgur.com/XWLu2Gs.png

The winner had about 1.5k euro matched https://i.imgur.com/zZC0Lh6.png

Why do people do this?

It was almost 70k matched in that 2nd screen shot. It's a variety of reasons, some think the price goes to 1.01 then out to 1.02 or 1.05 etc often enough to make it worth it, or enough horses get to 1.01 and lose for backers or in-play guys to give up the extra 1% and call it insurance, and there's mugs who think they can make money by sniping certs at 1.01. There's probably lots of other reasons.

The big unmatched amounts you see pre race are mainly bsp lays placed safely away at 1.01 so they won't be taken until they get SPed. Those are settled according to liability so if you want to lay £1000 at evens you'd place a 1.01 lay with a stake of £100,000. That size is a bit of a shocker the first few times you do it! The stake column in BA unmatched bets list isn't actually big enough to display it.

[Derek27]

Lots of 1.01's get turned over so being first in the queue means you have best chance of being matched. Plus many prices hit 1.01 and bounce out again, so many in play bettors will load up the price points with their bets in the knowledge there's no delay in cancelling bets but a 1 second delay placing them.

the way I understand it is that the "backers" will profit from this by matching a 99,99% sure of winning bet, so they might risk 1000$ to win 10$... but the only way a layer wins is if the price comes down to 1.01, gets matched by a backer and then bounces back from 1.01 to another price.. how often does this really happen to justify those humongous amounts laid at 1.01?

One of the biggest mistakes in betting is guessing that something has a 99.99% chance of winning. Most people can't calculate probability to zero decimal places nevermind two. I heard in the early days of Betfair it was actually profitable to lay every 1.01.

Have you heard of the hole in one gang? Probably before bookies went online, they went around asking people how often they think a hole in one occurs. The answer was always once in a blue moon. But they did their research and discovered it actually occurs about once per big tournament. So they toured the UK asking bookies for odds on a hole in one on the next big tournament, got £25 on with each bookie and netted a good five-figure sum.

[murdok]

In August there have been 15 losing 1.01's on the UK and IRE racing win markets, pretty sure that's more than 0.01% (100-99.99) of all races, I don't have stats for how many hit 1.01 and bounced out and went on to win.

I only have a data from the 1st of August until the 11th and in that period there were 5 that went to 1.01 and lost

[spreadbetting]

Been 10 more since then , 2 yesterday dunno if any from today. Not as rare as people think but being first in the queue means you've more chance of profiting.

[Atho55]

To put it into context with earlier years

1.01 and Lose.jpg

1.01 and Lose a.jpg

[Derek27]

To put it into context with earlier years


1.01 and Lose.jpg





1.01 and Lose a.jpg

That is some data you've got!

[wearthefoxhat]

Who could forget the famous Wetherby 4.05 - 20th February, where 3 lost @ 1.01...

Weth4.05.jpg

[Derek27]

Who could forget the famous Wetherby 4.05 - 20th February, where 3 lost @ 1.01...


Weth4.05.jpg

I remember that well. That was a first, and not sure if it's been repeated. Clear leader fell at the last, bringing down another 1.01, leaving another clear leader that was caught on the line by the winner, who moments ago was well out of contention. What I'd really like to know is, did anyone back two of the 1.01 losers.

There was also a horse called Go West Young Man, who despite having form living up to his name and going west just before the line, people were still backing it down to 1.01!

[wearthefoxhat]

Who could forget the famous Wetherby 4.05 - 20th February, where 3 lost @ 1.01...


Weth4.05.jpg

I remember that well. That was a first, and not sure if it's been repeated. Clear leader fell at the last, bringing down another 1.01, leaving another clear leader that was caught on the line by the winner, who moments ago was well out of contention. What I'd really like to know is, did anyone back two of the 1.01 losers.

There was also a horse called Go West Young Man, who despite having form living up to his name and going west just before the line, people were still backing it down to 1.01!

Yep, they sure did!

inrunning.jpg

Source;
https://www.racingpost.com/news/wetherb ... 101/320322

[Derek27]

Who could forget the famous Wetherby 4.05 - 20th February, where 3 lost @ 1.01...


Weth4.05.jpg

I remember that well. That was a first, and not sure if it's been repeated. Clear leader fell at the last, bringing down another 1.01, leaving another clear leader that was caught on the line by the winner, who moments ago was well out of contention. What I'd really like to know is, did anyone back two of the 1.01 losers.

There was also a horse called Go West Young Man, who despite having form living up to his name and going west just before the line, people were still backing it down to 1.01!

Yep, they sure did!


inrunning.jpg


Source;
https://www.racingpost.com/news/wetherb ... 101/320322

What I meant was, did an individual sniper back a horse at 1.01, and then another 1.01 after the horse fell?

I think it's unlikely after losing a fortune to put another fortune on to get 1% of it back, but if they did, they would have to be wally of the century.