Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:57 pm
BA is far too easy to just "click" a put trades on... 1 particularly bad market where I did 3 losing trades...
Not overtrading is tough. Activity equates to productivity in most of our lives but here it can almost be the opposite. All part of the mental switch from earning, to not losing. To misquote Lock Stock, 'Stop getting shot!" :) https://youtu.be/a8tpWoStiw8?t=75

Decent result goat68, at this stage it's about losing less each week rather than making something, so bank that £2.06 and if you lose £2.06 on the first day next week then it's no big deal. It's not a bad frame of mind to adopt generally, consider half your winnings as money you put in a jar to pay for the losers. If it's money you never had then it's money you'll be less bothered about losing.

btw when you say 101 trades do you mean 101 markets? If you're trying to emulate Peter's style then you'll know he doesn't make descrete in/out trades, he builds a position (an inventory of back and lay bets).
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Euler
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Why do you trade on a Sunday?
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:05 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:57 pm
BA is far too easy to just "click" a put trades on... 1 particularly bad market where I did 3 losing trades...
Not overtrading is tough. Activity equates to productivity in most of our lives but here it can almost be the opposite. All part of the mental switch from earning, to not losing. To misquote Lock Stock, 'Stop getting shot!" :) https://youtu.be/a8tpWoStiw8?t=75

Decent result goat68, at this stage it's about losing less each week rather than making something, so bank that £2.06 and if you lose £2.06 on the first day next week then it's no big deal. It's not a bad frame of mind to adopt generally, consider half your winnings as money you put in a jar to pay for the losers. If it's money you never had then it's money you'll be less bothered about losing.

btw when you say 101 trades do you mean 101 markets? If you're trying to emulate Peter's style then you'll know he doesn't make descrete in/out trades, he builds a position (an inventory of back and lay bets).
Yes, I do mean markets. I use Betfair account Profit&Loss today for figures
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goat68
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Euler wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:06 pm
Why do you trade on a Sunday?
Ah well,... cos I don't know better!
I did get the feeling the markets were different today, so at least I figured that out!!
I'm just so keen to learn....
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goat68
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Euler, is there a video on markets variation by day of week please?
I can sort of guess, ramp up from Monday to high quality on Saturday, then Sunday day of rest?
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Euler
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Sundays average about half the volume of a normal day of the week. You peak on a Saturday, Sundays are much weaker. If you trade them the same, you will soon realise you can't.
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:23 pm
Ah well,... cos I don't know better!
I did get the feeling the markets were different today, so at least I figured that out!!
I'm just so keen to learn....
Day of the week is a handy rule of thumb but it's a biproduct of the quality of the racing. Saturday has a higher proportion of better quality horses = more interest = more money changes hands. Some shite donkey derby with £250 prize money is going to be weak whenever they run it, but still stronger on a Saturday because there's more people gambling. Midweek when everyone's at work it's mainly pensioners and pros so volume and more importantly liquidity, is down.

Prize money or race grade is a decent guide to how something should behave.
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goat68
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Good day, bar one rogue market:
8 wins : AVG +£1.44
2 losses : AVG -£3.89
Net: +£3.73

One of those losses cost me -£6.69, due to one of those big back trades taking price from 4.0->3.1, a classic downward staircase Betfair chart in what was a lowish liquidity market.
jamesg46
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I'm enjoying keeping up with this thread goat, watching how you're getting on... you should definitely keep this going, i think it'll be valuable for you to look back on in months or even years to come, it'll be a nice reminder of where you started and how you got to where you potentially get. Its cool that you can be openly honest, regardless of it being a good day or bad.
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

**** !!
Just lost it... and got very frustrated with my old pet hate, being my horse moving against me and no other horses moving, my get out rule is to look at the other horses and if they still look good eg.still behind their support, then stay in as my horse should come back... 3 horses didn't today... I need to work out a better way with this, as it blew me out of the water, I got frustrated and angry with it... All the videos state if one horse moves one way, the others should balance... what am I missing?

Auto-stop seems to just take me out of good trades, but I am wondering maybe that's the way on balance of probabilities.
Or just keep my current method but add some other "rule"? I need to understand how the odds move of 1 horse does not necessarily affect the field? One of the 3 I think it was because the 7thfav came in from about 25->10 and I didn't see it.... the other 2 no idea.....

9 wins : AVG +£1.61
9 losses : AVG -£2.88
Net: -£11.43
tiberigc
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:05 pm

noticed this today as well. I am also a beginner and was looking at the ladder of one race in the last 5 minutes, 3 horses were definitely and strongly drifting and I had the audacity to back the only horse that was not drifting out of the 4 i have on my screen. It started drifting as well for about 7 ticks and I had to get out. I'm not sure how often this happens but it kinda makes me think I have no clue what I'm doing.
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

goat68 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:01 pm
**** !!
Just lost it... and got very frustrated with my old pet hate, being my horse moving against me and no other horses moving, my get out rule is to look at the other horses and if they still look good eg.still behind their support, then stay in as my horse should come back... 3 horses didn't today... I need to work out a better way with this, as it blew me out of the water, I got frustrated and angry with it... All the videos state if one horse moves one way, the others should balance... what am I missing?

Auto-stop seems to just take me out of good trades, but I am wondering maybe that's the way on balance of probabilities.
Or just keep my current method but add some other "rule"? I need to understand how the odds move of 1 horse does not necessarily affect the field? One of the 3 I think it was because the 7thfav came in from about 25->10 and I didn't see it.... the other 2 no idea.....

9 wins : AVG +£1.61
9 losses : AVG -£2.88
Net: -£11.43
that may be the overround goat..worth a read about that
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goat68
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tiberigc wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:11 pm
but it kinda makes me think I have no clue what I'm doing.
That's the feeling I had today too !
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goat68
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

My equity curve for the last 2 weeks trading this strategy, notice any trends yet??!
HorseProfit.jpg
jamesg46
Posts: 3771
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

goat68 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:17 pm
My equity curve for the last 2 weeks trading this strategy, notice any trends yet??!
HorseProfit.jpg
It looks like a pixel from a life portrait.
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