A lot of concrete advice on here, that is what you usually get OP when you ask the right questions, a lot can be said since the subject is as deep as you'd like.
Obviously depends on whether you view automation as just a bonus approach or your main trading goal, I personally feel that the opportunities that manual trading offers are far too good to turn down and getting your own hands dirty is a lot more interesting than leaving all that fun for your bots.
Not much more I wanted to add, it all looks daunting at first but you can learn how to use Bet Angel and its auto features inside of a few weeks, the amazing work of Dallas and a few others makes sure of that. Automation in general may sound daunting but it's really not if you start small and simple at first, you can probably get a ton of data advice from people if you asked nicely, but if you're attacking automation via the manual trading route then you wouldn't really need to.
By starting small I mean say you develop the ability to trade (grind) smaller markets like greyhounds or daily Aussie racing and things like that, that would mean you should then have the ability to automate some of it, because in order to trade them you would need to understand the structure of that market and how it behaves. And if you can manage to do that then you should be ready to attack the next bigger market if you wished, and so on, with each previous success giving you exactly the right tools to attack the next market (because they are all linked in some way, shape or form). Same thing for manual trading, how convenient is that?!
Because a greyhounds market is practically the same market as a horse racing one, it just never gets the opportunity or the time to fully mature. A lot of markets share the same structure and similar characteristics, and learning more about those will unlock all sorts of automation doors for you, should you wish to open some of them.
How to discover profitable automation strategies?
As a manual trader I have to agree with DeShawn here.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:12 pmBecause your presence is supposed to be a asset not a liability. Experienced traders don't have an emotional handicap because they know what they're doing and emotion isn't even an issue. You underestimate the value of subjectivity.abgespaced wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:00 pmi therefore fail to see how a human could do any better given that they have an emotional handicap. If something doesn't produce a profit over an infinite number of iterations then how would manual trading be any better!
If you decide that your emotions are a handicap and that is how you choose to see them, then that is exactly what they will most likely be.
The phenomenon of a self-fulfilling prophecy is a very popular subject in psychology and cognitive science.
- ruthlessimon
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Yes and no.abgespaced wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:40 amThe markets are constantly evolving and no single strategy can remain static in the long term
Yes, auto strategies can & do fail. But don't underestimate the Lindy effect. (i.e. good strategies, based on sound concepts, shouldn't need much tweaking imho)
How to think into the far future: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2019 ... far-future
“Things that have been around for a long time are not ‘aging’ like persons, but ‘aging’ in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy.”
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I am not manually trading. The market and my rules dictate if I offer prices or take them.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:03 am"Normally" implies data driven but manually executed ?
All the benefits of data and all the benefits of subjectivity, a Cyborg trader? Half rice half chips.
With tight margins 'you' and your grey-i probably contribute a pretty big slice of your return, stripping that way and replacing it with something formulaic can be really tricky. Anyway being semi-automated is cheating, it's too easy, 'proper' full-autos like a bit more of a challenge
btw I loved the bit about "- Is the money waiting on one side or the other increasing or decreasing."
errr yes....now what?
If one side of the market unmatched money is increasing and the other side decreasing then I am expecting the price to move to the decreasing side. If it doesn’t and my offer was taken then I scratch and start again. If it does and my offer was taken then I take a TP based on volatility and start again. If my offer was never taken then it’s cancelled and start again.
- jamesedwards
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I've spent the last two years building hundreds of bots across multiple sports and have yet to find anything consistently profitable or even close to flat. And I know I've barely scratched the surface.
I don't even want a bot that makes a profit, just one that churns commission without losing would be an enormous benefit to me. If anyone has any bots that fulfil this criteria they are interested in selling feel free to PM!
I don't even want a bot that makes a profit, just one that churns commission without losing would be an enormous benefit to me. If anyone has any bots that fulfil this criteria they are interested in selling feel free to PM!
- johnsheppard
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I don't have the answers, but if manual traders can make money, automated ones can too. What's the difference?jameegray1 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:09 pmI've spent the last two years building hundreds of bots across multiple sports and have yet to find anything consistently profitable or even close to flat. And I know I've barely scratched the surface.
...Probably that algo coding every avenue a regular human brain can do in split seconds is rather time consuming...
Maybe the trick is to focus on one strategy and full on kit that one out with all the things a regular brain does...as opposed to 100's of bots? (that may contradict Shaun's fail fast recommendation)
I'm inclined to think if you take the mass bot approach, you're already done for...there's already mass bots out there...what do you have that they don't? They know how to profile a market and backtest too...
Of the guys I have talked to who make money automated, they are all workaholic number loving freaks I am not so sure it's the money they care about....I haven't heard any of them say that things don't change all the time. Not a single one of them sits on their ass all day for months on end watching money go into their bank account (Note that I haven't had a chance to talk to everyone yet so it's possible I've been talking to the wrong subset...might spend a bit more time with some fly by nighters...might be more encouraging...)
I love automating things..guess it's the IT geek in me. I get frustrated (especially when they suddenly stop trading for no apparent reason-today- ) a lot but still have a crack. There is something fun about creating something that acts autonomously. I have only found some success manually trading though. I have yet to hear about anyone who will own up to making money off BA automation long term - other than Euler - and I have asked on this forum before (oops re gauntlet ) but of course maybe the successful ones keep shtum who knows. Most of the successful ones, I get the feeling, are writing their own bits o code. Doing this stuff is hard..doing it via bots successfully is truly in the realm of the elite ..to me anyway.johnsheppard wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:11 amI don't have the answers, but if manual traders can make money, automated ones can too. What's the difference?jameegray1 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:09 pmI've spent the last two years building hundreds of bots across multiple sports and have yet to find anything consistently profitable or even close to flat. And I know I've barely scratched the surface.
...Probably that algo coding every avenue a regular human brain can do in split seconds is rather time consuming...
Maybe the trick is to focus on one strategy and full on kit that one out with all the things a regular brain does...as opposed to 100's of bots? (that may contradict Shaun's fail fast recommendation)
I'm inclined to think if you take the mass bot approach, you're already done for...there's already mass bots out there...what do you have that they don't? They know how to profile a market and backtest too...
Of the guys I have talked to who make money automated, they are all workaholic number loving freaks I am not so sure it's the money they care about....I haven't heard any of them say that things don't change all the time. Not a single one of them sits on their ass all day for months on end watching money go into their bank account (Note that I haven't had a chance to talk to everyone yet so it's possible I've been talking to the wrong subset...might spend a bit more time with some fly by nighters...might be more encouraging...)
- johnsheppard
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I like automating things because I am fundamentally and chronically lazy.mcgoo wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:42 amI love automating things..guess it's the IT geek in me. I get frustrated (especially when they suddenly stop trading for no apparent reason-today- ) a lot but still have a crack. There is something fun about creating something that acts autonomously. I have only found some success manually trading though. I have yet to hear about anyone who will own up to making money off BA automation long term - other than Euler - and I have asked on this forum before (oops re gauntlet ) but of course maybe the successful ones keep shtum who knows. Most of the successful ones, I get the feeling, are writing their own bits o code. Doing this stuff is hard..doing it via bots successfully is truly in the realm of the elite ..to me anyway.
Seems to me that Euler has models in his head, from years of manually watching. Regular guys that have to code as well, don't have that kind of time because learning to code takes probably as long as learning the markets. So I guess they rely on digging through data. Betfair isn't the only source of data either.
Depends on what you mean by Elite....IMO it's just working hard...if you're not prepared to sink 40-50 hours a week for more than several years to get somewhere....plenty of people have and do....so if you don't you're gonna get beat...right? (that's no guarantee either)... but you know... every other self employed business on the face of the planet is the same.... you gotta work hard...or you'll get beat...and that's still no guarantee....
I run an automated strategy just through bet angel that is profitable long term, It has limits though and the drawdowns can last up to 2 months but its generally a set and forget job and have done this for the past 3 years with only minor tweaks here and there, Its not actually complicated but it relys on using common sense such as increasing stakes during good runs and reducing gradually during drawdowns, Im in the drawdown period right now otherwise i might not be browsing the forum looking for other ideas I know i only have an edge because of the drawdown and no one would want to stomach that but after years of attempting to manual trade and then fail its what ive resigned to.
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By "standard software such as BA" do you guys mean rules file automation or excel&vba automation? i'm still manual trading and i'm looking forward to write some vba for my automation. do people have success with excel&vba bots? i mean, even though it's not python/java it's still coding. i was hoping i could work on coding something successful without paying 200quid for the api access right from the start.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:31 pmTime to get out those coding books and write your own, plenty of help on the developers site and Liam even released his python framework for free. At the end of the day it'll always be more efficient to use your own bespoke software rather than trying to fudge your strategies within someone else's framework. But it all boils down to exactly what you're doing and how much effort you want to put in. Off the shelf software may well do all you need if not it's time to get out the textbooks or chequebook and get someone else to code it.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:30 pmI see a lot of automated stuff on horses and dogs in particular that are surely very profitable long term, but impossible to replicate using standard software such as BA, etc.
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All depends on what you're trying to do. I have excel based bots that turn over decent profits as I'm sure many others do.
It's just sometimes the more you bot the more you realise you can probably do things faster, more efficient ,save data, get additional data etc by writing your own rather than using someone's else access to the API.
It's just sometimes the more you bot the more you realise you can probably do things faster, more efficient ,save data, get additional data etc by writing your own rather than using someone's else access to the API.
- abgespaced
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I guess it's my turn to weigh-in on how I've been approaching the markets. Not that I am entitled to much of an opinion as I have only been here since breakfast! But there are some things I've been noticing.
Warning! I may have no idea what I'm talking about
1. Don't trust early results
I started with a basic supposition based on a manual strategy that I've had some limited success with. I ran it through practice mode first to make sure I wasn't losing a ton of money, then went live. I left it on most of the day and was up in profit by the end, though not by much. I understand variance so crossed my fingers and left it on overnight. In the morning it had deteriorated into a loss.
I knew this might happen, so I left my stakes very small. But I can imagine someone seeing the early profits and thinking this is great, increasing the stakes only to see a big loss the next day. Don't do this!
2. Only adjust one thing at a time
I always feel tempted to bring in 3-4 changes when something isn't working. It's hard to resist but it's better in the end. If I go about changing more than one thing at a time I might be introducing or omitting a second or third factor that just confounds the measurements. Better to go slow and play things out to a definite conclusion, as others have said.
3. Use small stakes and get real data
I started out using guardian in practice mode but turned to the real market once I could see my automation working as intended. With that switch my stakes dropped to about 100th of what they were in practice mode. I'm taking 5c a trade and turning it into hard data that I can analyse and pivot on.
They are the 3 main things I'm focusing on. I guess the next area of improvement is in the database management side of things. The market reports folder is getting messy and I have no database management experience besides copy-pasting things in and out of excel. So perhaps some kind of SQL crash course or something would be beneficial. I just don't want to lose track of the results I've got so far and get stuck going around in circles.
Warning! I may have no idea what I'm talking about
1. Don't trust early results
I started with a basic supposition based on a manual strategy that I've had some limited success with. I ran it through practice mode first to make sure I wasn't losing a ton of money, then went live. I left it on most of the day and was up in profit by the end, though not by much. I understand variance so crossed my fingers and left it on overnight. In the morning it had deteriorated into a loss.
I knew this might happen, so I left my stakes very small. But I can imagine someone seeing the early profits and thinking this is great, increasing the stakes only to see a big loss the next day. Don't do this!
2. Only adjust one thing at a time
I always feel tempted to bring in 3-4 changes when something isn't working. It's hard to resist but it's better in the end. If I go about changing more than one thing at a time I might be introducing or omitting a second or third factor that just confounds the measurements. Better to go slow and play things out to a definite conclusion, as others have said.
3. Use small stakes and get real data
I started out using guardian in practice mode but turned to the real market once I could see my automation working as intended. With that switch my stakes dropped to about 100th of what they were in practice mode. I'm taking 5c a trade and turning it into hard data that I can analyse and pivot on.
They are the 3 main things I'm focusing on. I guess the next area of improvement is in the database management side of things. The market reports folder is getting messy and I have no database management experience besides copy-pasting things in and out of excel. So perhaps some kind of SQL crash course or something would be beneficial. I just don't want to lose track of the results I've got so far and get stuck going around in circles.
- Crazyskier
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Though I use excel to record results and data, I'm not conversant with VBA and use only off-the-shelf automation. The new 5k hourly transactions limit (up from 1k) has allowed far more experimentation with high-frequency 1-tick stuff than before and this is where I'm seeing far superior systems based on WOM mostly, that are able to re-bet only when their current bet isn't at the best price. For me very short fill n kills are the work-around but the main issue there is you are always at the back of the queue each time, and those using code remain in the queue until the price moves, giving a huge advantage on certain events like the horses with a 1.09 shot called 'Enable' the other day. There were massive volumes traded and often are on GRP1 / GRP2 races but I'm starting from a point of disadvantage each time I use standard software, no matter how sophisticated the settings.Vladimir CC wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:56 pmBy "standard software such as BA" do you guys mean rules file automation or excel&vba automation? i'm still manual trading and i'm looking forward to write some vba for my automation. do people have success with excel&vba bots? i mean, even though it's not python/java it's still coding. i was hoping i could work on coding something successful without paying 200quid for the api access right from the start.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:31 pmTime to get out those coding books and write your own, plenty of help on the developers site and Liam even released his python framework for free. At the end of the day it'll always be more efficient to use your own bespoke software rather than trying to fudge your strategies within someone else's framework. But it all boils down to exactly what you're doing and how much effort you want to put in. Off the shelf software may well do all you need if not it's time to get out the textbooks or chequebook and get someone else to code it.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:30 pmI see a lot of automated stuff on horses and dogs in particular that are surely very profitable long term, but impossible to replicate using standard software such as BA, etc.
CS