Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Is there a particular interest in the pre-off horse markets that you have? I ask this only because imo it's a tricky place to make money and there's far easier places in the exchange to splash about. I tend to think the more info in the public domain about a topic the less chance you have of making it in that arena - this is because players lose their edge and decide to make money through videos and training instead - you see it with poker, a while back the only material out there was in private groups, shared between friends and those who knew each other - now that info is absolutely everywhere, and that's because a lot of players lost their edge and there was more money to be made in training. Relating that to sports trading, the most info I see out on youtube or other places is pre-off horses, and maybe that's for a similar reason. Not to say at all that it's not possible to make money there, just likely that it's very hard to do so and you need a lot more than what you can find in videos to profit from it.

So I chose pre race horses partly as a challenge, but also because I thought there was more opportunity due to more of a psychological influence in the last 10 mins. And I'm convinced the major edge you can find is through psychology. However, I am very analytical minded, mathematical, and rubbish in understanding psychology, so I think I might be wasting my time based on that...

Your point about people losing their edge and turning to YouTube videos I think is very true...

[spreadbetting]

You don't neccesarily need to know much about the sport you're playing, I made a few grand on the dogs this week and just about know one end of them from the other.

So I chose pre race horses partly as a challenge, but also because I thought there was more opportunity due to more of a psychological influence in the last 10 mins. And I'm convinced the major edge you can find is through psychology. However, I am very analytical minded, mathematical, and rubbish in understanding psychology, so I think I might be wasting my time based on that...

Not sure you should be picking your sports to trade based on it being 'a challenge', plenty of sports to choose from that may be better suited to your skillset, no point in making things hard for yourself as it's hard enough.

[ShaunWhite]

My maths was wrong before a move from 25% to 33% isn't an 8% change in sentiment it's about 33%.

Knowing the sport isn't 100% essential but for a manual trader its got to help a lot. Automation is another thing because that's more about looking for similarities than differences in order to achieve the necessary scale.

[goat68]

You don't neccesarily need to know much about the sport you're playing, I made a few grand on the dogs this week and just about know one end of them from the other.

So I chose pre race horses partly as a challenge, but also because I thought there was more opportunity due to more of a psychological influence in the last 10 mins. And I'm convinced the major edge you can find is through psychology. However, I am very analytical minded, mathematical, and rubbish in understanding psychology, so I think I might be wasting my time based on that...

Not sure you should be picking your sports to trade based on it being 'a challenge', plenty of sports to choose from that may be better suited to your skillset, no point in making things hard for yourself as it's hard enough.

Few grand on dogs, blimey what's the secret?

[ShaunWhite]

Yes, however I'm sure in one of Peters videos he says not knowing about horses gives you an advantage as you are not emotionally attached...

Correct, and he's right. You shouldn't have an attachment to a horse, but he's never said you don't need to need to know what type of market you're looking at. When he says that he looks at the racing for the day ahead and knows how it will trade that's one of the biggest pieces of information you have apart from the likely market shape (hot fav or 3 joint favs etc).

Btw were you aware that in a handicap race all the horses should theoretically be priced the same... Because the good ones have more lead in the saddle. That's not being emotionally attached it's just knowledge. Does it matter, maybe not much, but knowing is better than not knowing.

[ShaunWhite]

Few grand on dogs, blimey what's the secret?

I'm sure he'll comment but.... Experience.

And the fact there's about 720 dogs a day... Plus the same again in Aus, then maybe throw in the place markets too. With 3000 selections a day to look at, things add up.

[jimibt]

Few grand on dogs, blimey what's the secret?

I'm sure he'll comment but.... Experience.

And the fact there's about 720 dogs a day... Plus the same again in Aus, then maybe throw in the place markets too. With 3000 selections a day to look at, things add up.

shaun -your 1st comment was enough, but the 2nd para literally was the *open hands* (shoulders raised). whilst i agree that there is something that some of us will get and others won't, over time, sheer persistance SHOULD bring this home.

Sir goat - i admire your commentary but feel that you are honestly expecting far too much far too soon. Slow down, reflect and be realistic, those traits will see you still making comments here in 2 years time. trust me. All the go faster guys that i've seen on here suddenly have a ZERO post history after about 4-6 months (you can check!!), which indicates (to me) sudden realisation/failure.

it's about the pace, not about the race.

[goat68]

Yes, however I'm sure in one of Peters videos he says not knowing about horses gives you an advantage as you are not emotionally attached...

Correct, and he's right. You shouldn't have an attachment to a horse, but he's never said you don't need to need to know what type of market you're looking at. When he says that he looks at the racing for the day ahead and knows how it will trade that's one of the biggest pieces of information you have apart from the likely market shape (hot fav or 3 joint favs etc).

Btw were you aware that in a handicap race all the horses should theoretically be priced the same... Because the good ones have more lead in the saddle. That's not being emotionally attached it's just knowledge. Does it matter, maybe not much, but knowing is better than not knowing.

Yes, I did know about Hcaps, Nurs, Mdns, Nov, etc, and how they in theory behave differently, partly because I bought CaanB's guide...
Although to be honest in 4 months if trading them I've not seen huge differences...!

[goat68]

Few grand on dogs, blimey what's the secret?

I'm sure he'll comment but.... Experience.

And the fact there's about 720 dogs a day... Plus the same again in Aus, then maybe throw in the place markets too. With 3000 selections a day to look at, things add up.

shaun -your 1st comment was enough, but the 2nd para literally was the *open hands* (shoulders raised). whilst i agree that there is something that some of us will get and others won't, over time, sheer persistance SHOULD bring this home.

Sir goat - i admire your commentary but feel that you are honestly expecting far too much far too soon. Slow down, reflect and be realistic, those traits will see you still making comments here in 2 years time. trust me. All the go faster guys that i've seen on here suddenly have a ZERO post history after about 4-6 months (you can check!!), which indicates (to me) sudden realisation/failure.

it's about the pace, not about the race.

I like your post, fair comment.
Anyway, I'm feeling better now I've had 4 bars of chocolate and 2 glasses of wine
I'll need to do 10miles in the morning to run this lot off.... !

[wearthefoxhat]

Few grand on dogs, blimey what's the secret?

I'm sure he'll comment but.... Experience.

And the fact there's about 720 dogs a day... Plus the same again in Aus, then maybe throw in the place markets too. With 3000 selections a day to look at, things add up.

shaun -your 1st comment was enough, but the 2nd para literally was the *open hands* (shoulders raised). whilst i agree that there is something that some of us will get and others won't, over time, sheer persistance SHOULD bring this home.

Sir goat - i admire your commentary but feel that you are honestly expecting far too much far too soon. Slow down, reflect and be realistic, those traits will see you still making comments here in 2 years time. trust me. All the go faster guys that i've seen on here suddenly have a ZERO post history after about 4-6 months (you can check!!), which indicates (to me) sudden realisation/failure.

it's about the pace, not about the race.

+1

If you're not already doing so, review/reflect on your losing trades.

Is there a trend/pattern/mistake that repeats itself?
Is there a market/racetype that is common?

Do the same on the winning trades.

I did this in my early parts of my journey and found the price range of the favourite, when compared the second/third favourite, consistently caught me out. (then I remembered the Litte Acorns system and its impact)

[goat68]

I'm sure he'll comment but.... Experience.

And the fact there's about 720 dogs a day... Plus the same again in Aus, then maybe throw in the place markets too. With 3000 selections a day to look at, things add up.

shaun -your 1st comment was enough, but the 2nd para literally was the *open hands* (shoulders raised). whilst i agree that there is something that some of us will get and others won't, over time, sheer persistance SHOULD bring this home.

Sir goat - i admire your commentary but feel that you are honestly expecting far too much far too soon. Slow down, reflect and be realistic, those traits will see you still making comments here in 2 years time. trust me. All the go faster guys that i've seen on here suddenly have a ZERO post history after about 4-6 months (you can check!!), which indicates (to me) sudden realisation/failure.

it's about the pace, not about the race.

+1

If you're not already doing so, review/reflect on your losing trades.

Is there a trend/pattern/mistake that repeats itself?
Is there a market/racetype that is common?

Do the same on the winning trades.

I did this in my early parts of my journey and found the price range of the favourite, when compared the second/third favourite, consistently caught me out. (then I remembered the Litte Acorns system and its impact)

Not heard of little acorns had to look it up some sort of lay strategy but you have to sign-up to find out...

[wearthefoxhat]

shaun -your 1st comment was enough, but the 2nd para literally was the *open hands* (shoulders raised). whilst i agree that there is something that some of us will get and others won't, over time, sheer persistance SHOULD bring this home.

Sir goat - i admire your commentary but feel that you are honestly expecting far too much far too soon. Slow down, reflect and be realistic, those traits will see you still making comments here in 2 years time. trust me. All the go faster guys that i've seen on here suddenly have a ZERO post history after about 4-6 months (you can check!!), which indicates (to me) sudden realisation/failure.

it's about the pace, not about the race.

+1

If you're not already doing so, review/reflect on your losing trades.

Is there a trend/pattern/mistake that repeats itself?
Is there a market/racetype that is common?

Do the same on the winning trades.

I did this in my early parts of my journey and found the price range of the favourite, when compared the second/third favourite, consistently caught me out. (then I remembered the Litte Acorns system and its impact)

Not heard of little acorns had to look it up some sort of lay strategy but you have to sign-up to find out...

Discussed in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=15679&hilit=little+acorns

Yep, it's a lay system that has been around for a while. The hypothesis is that the odds within the range of the favourite, are more likely to drift rather than steam and create a L2B opportunity. (just a question of establishing entry/exit points)

[Jukebox]

This is an open forum you can expect good and bad advice but you will have to decide which is which.

[wearthefoxhat]

York 2.30 was a fair example of a L2B - "Acorns" race.

Was around 1.85 out to 2.12 (BSP)

acorns.jpg

[goat68]

First race -£4.25 took my time and carefully selected the race setup which to me looked like a breakout move, and it did to start with was moving nicely, then 2 mins to go it reversed very sharply. Im thinking i should have traded it the other way...?