can you really make money?

[stever78]

very interested in people's honest experiances on whether you are allowed to make money in trading.

not how to make money ( if it were easy to answer that in one sentance then im sure it wouldnt be easy for long ).

my question is IF one was to start making money ,on the bf or daq or any exchanges , do they soon restrict you from continuing ??

( i know they charge you more in fees, premium etc, and also that as an exchange model then they should be happy to just take your comm, but do they actually stop you making money after you reach a level ?? )

wonder if anyone can share if they have been limited from the exchanges in any way and if so why would that be ??

for instance, is it possible to make say 100k, if you know what your doing. ( again dont need to go into how you do , just interested to know if exchanges look to stop you doing so in the process or at any particular point?)

always wondered the reality of whether people do make it ?? tks, steve

[CallumPerry]

Hi Steve,

Yeah, unlike a traditional scummy bookie, you won't get restricted for being good at betting with an exchange. You can win as much as you like if you put the effort it with absolutely no fear. Only thing I've ever seen on this forum is traders from countries outside the UK getting restricted because legalities change in that country. Obviously if you're doing something illegal too like laundering, you're gone. Other than that, you won't get restricted.

Like you said, there's higher commission rates. That's how they milk the top performers. If you win loads, they'll expect more commission from you but if you can survive that too, make as much as you can! Long road though.

[spreadbetting]

As long as you're playing by Betfair's rules they won't limit or ban you from the exchange. Basically the more you win the more they win in PC and depending on how you play they'll happily encourage your business with various offers.

[stever78]

thanks for the reply callum, intresting to hear that its possible, as you say, those fantastic b365'ers and hills, etc spend loads on adverts, so they have the money, but they don't wanna know you if your any good !!

totally understand people might not particallarly want to say that they have made that sort of money, on an open forum, etc.

but interesting if people know of others that can make a decent living out of it.

[spreadbetting]

but interesting if people know of others that can make a decent living out of it.

Depends on your idea of what a decent living is as to whether that's acheiveable. HIgher rate PC of up to 60% certainly ended a lot of people's 'decent' livings but there's still a lot of people making a decent living from the exchanges.

[Derek27]

for instance, is it possible to make say 100k, if you know what your doing.

As a matter of interest, were you thinking of £100K a day, week, month, year or lifetime?

[stever78]

for instance, is it possible to make say 100k, if you know what your doing.

As a matter of interest, were you thinking of £100K a day, week, month, year or lifetime?

A year .

[Kai]

for instance, is it possible to make say 100k, if you know what your doing

Yeah, but only if your name is Paulo Rebelo

[stever78]

If betfair do just provide the platform for betters and layers then sure i can see that they would welcome anyone who plays within the rules.

however if betfair pump liquidity into the markets themselves, then would it not be feasable that they would eventually try to restrict you, IF you kept winning against thier liquidity.

do you think this happens ??

[alexmr2]

There are millions of pounds turnover on sports betting each day, if you have spent thousands of hours in the markets then it makes sense it is possible to consistently skim a tiny percentage off the inefficiencies

Most lose overall and never make it, only 0.5% of Betfair accounts pay the first level of premium charge that means only 1 in 200 people are making decent money consistently. Some people in this category may even lose their edge eventually depending on what and how they are trading

It doesn't make sense for an exchange to ban you as long as you aren't doing something stupid like placing a million 1 pence bets a second

[Kai]

however if betfair pump liquidity into the markets themselves, then would it not be feasable that they would eventually try to restrict you, IF you kept winning against thier liquidity.

do you think this happens ??

That's actually a good question. Afaik no reported cases of any limiting, not counting their Sportsbook. You'll run into trouble if you try to avoid PC, or do fishy stuff like that.

The "limiting" comes via premium charge which you obviously start paying soon as you start winning past like 5k, and for some the limit is 250k lifetime where PC2 kicks in. Not ideal but it's still a pretty good deal overall.

[Euler]

very interested in people's honest experiances on whether you are allowed to make money in trading.

There are loads of people who have made substantial amounts of money over the years. As long as you are doing something legitimate and not bending the rules or bucking the system, you are free to make as much as you wish.

Whether you can is another question. But it's certainly possible.

[jamesedwards]

for instance, is it possible to make say 100k, if you know what your doing

Yeah, but only if your name is Paulo Rebelo

Holy crap!!!

[rik]

oh wow thats real? does it show what his bets were other than the 1.09 unmatched on unders?
must have hoped those 8 minutes overtime went over a bit faster lol
manchester city its quite obvious the style they are playing against crystal palace, surprised there would be much difference in goal expectancy match to match

[Kai]

Yeah, it's real. He made a P&L video about it and wrote a short summary as well. I can auto-translate and copy it below, for those looking for a bit of inspiration, or confirmation like OP.

I'm a trader, not a punter.

Although to be a good trader it is necessary to have a good dose of punter, it is the ability to be able to adjust at every moment the position that, from my point of view, gives the greatest value to betting exchanges.

And how many adjustments I had to make to my position in this game that ended with an unlikely draw by City, and no goals.

The game started with a Man City odd of 1.31, which I even thought was worth considering that, at this point, they will probably be the best team in Europe (and the World). And that was my initial idea, to have more money on the blues side, hoping that sooner than later, the goal would appear, as it always did.
But not this time. My Punter analysis was wrong.

The first half was intense, but without the usual number of opportunities in City games. Gradually I started to see value in betting against City and finished the first half substantially against Pep Guardiola's team.

At halftime I did a round of the other Betfair markets and found Under 0.5 at 7.4 !!!! I found the odds to be completely out of place considering what had happened in the first half, even discounting the fact that it was predictable that the game could change with Guardiola's instructions / substitutions. However, I also valued that, as time went by, the players of the home team would increasingly believe that it was possible for them to stop the cityzens. I left my position in the Match Odds market open against Manchester and went for the 0.5 goals market, betting on the under. The odd came obediently down there. There were times when I was reducing my position, when the goal seemed more likely, but it took until the odd reached the value that I thought was fair. Still, at that time,
We got to the extra time, Lay of City is paying, but I still have an open position in Under.

Penalty!

Unfair penalty. It was not a penalty. The Palace player threw himself, so it hurts even more to lose on Unders.
I can do nothing.

A glimmer of hope appears when I see City's GK tattooed turtleneck. It's Ederson! The Ederson that gave me so much joy as Benfica goalkeeper (I miss you!). Ederson who already saved penalties this year. Is it too much to ask for justice and to defend a penalty that was not?

Ederson, the football gods (who don't like simulations), my guardian angel, my aunt Tuxa, all together, made it impossible for Milivojevic to score the penalty.

Anyone who already knows me knows that whenever a player scores a goal that makes me win an important bet, I buy his jersey (as a way of thanking him, and also to remember all the positive moments I have been through. When the bad guys moments appear, seeing my shirts helps me to overcome them). Today, for the first time, I will send for a GK shirt. But, unlike all the others, I will not play with this one. It is a yellow, flourishing, ugly sweater. Maybe put it in the trunk of the car to serve as a reflective vest if necessary.