Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
User avatar
darchas
Posts: 304
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Think I might give up horses, is football easier?
I trade football. Started off with horses but I didn't enjoy it, just don't have an interest in it. My own view is that five minutes before the off is the hardest place on the exchange for a newbie to make money. Having said that I'd be wary about flitting around too quickly. Think about all that you've learned so far, think about all the advice in this thread. You might not feel like it now but all this means something and you have some good experience behind you. Moving on to somewhere else you'll be starting again.

I've been profitable at the football for the last year but it took me four years to get there. I have a post about it when I was at peak frustration. The funny thing about that looking back is when I posted I was so close to a breakthrough, I was just annoyed at the feeling of spinning my wheels and lashed out a bit.

So, I can't say what you should trade, but maybe it's about expectation. It took me four years of banging my head against a brick wall before I started to get some clarity. I think I'm probably particularly slow and I wouldn't say I'm anywhere near where I want to be yet. I'm on the very first step and every day I feel like it could go either way and I have to work so hard just to stay still and edge forward slowly. But I know I'm on the right path. So yes, maybe rather than needing a change it could be about resetting expectations. Play with minimum stakes, give yourself a year and have your goal to break even. Something like that. That's a massive success in my book.

You can switch to different areas for sure, but just have a think, I'm sure you've learned loads over the last few months and you don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

darchas wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:55 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Think I might give up horses, is football easier?
I trade football. Started off with horses but I didn't enjoy it, just don't have an interest in it. My own view is that five minutes before the off is the hardest place on the exchange for a newbie to make money. Having said that I'd be wary about flitting around too quickly. Think about all that you've learned so far, think about all the advice in this thread. You might not feel like it now but all this means something and you have some good experience behind you. Moving on to somewhere else you'll be starting again.

I've been profitable at the football for the last year but it took me four years to get there. I have a post about it when I was at peak frustration. The funny thing about that looking back is when I posted I was so close to a breakthrough, I was just annoyed at the feeling of spinning my wheels and lashed out a bit.

So, I can't say what you should trade, but maybe it's about expectation. It took me four years of banging my head against a brick wall before I started to get some clarity. I think I'm probably particularly slow and I wouldn't say I'm anywhere near where I want to be yet. I'm on the very first step and every day I feel like it could go either way and I have to work so hard just to stay still and edge forward slowly. But I know I'm on the right path. So yes, maybe rather than needing a change it could be about resetting expectations. Play with minimum stakes, give yourself a year and have your goal to break even. Something like that. That's a massive success in my book.

You can switch to different areas for sure, but just have a think, I'm sure you've learned loads over the last few months and you don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Thanks, this is useful, do you by any chance have a link to your original post you mention?
Cheers
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Ok I'm going to ask a dumb question, but what is it about the more volume towards the off that makes it more tradeable, apart from the obvious bet scaling perspective..?
There are obvious trends 30mins out on the charts why aren't those profitable trends to trade?
Is it the volume increase, or the different participants in the last 5 mins?
But again why is different participants any more tradeable than those involved at 30mins?
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Peter in his videos states he is more certain about the moves in the last 10mins, but why?
User avatar
darchas
Posts: 304
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Here you go viewtopic.php?f=6&t=19856

It's not pretty and I cringe a bit reading it back, but it's part of my journey and the advice I got was absolutely golden and really focused my mind on what was important. From then I put my head down and every day did something that would move me forward. Every single trade I did i would follow up with an extensive write up - what I did good, what I did bad, why I entered when I did, why I exited when I did etc. Over and over again. Then the next day I would read through my notes before trading and make sure I was taking the learnings forward. I want to know as much as I can. If my back bet is matched then someone has layed it, why have they layed it? That's what I wanted to know, and if I couldn't answer then I knew this was something to work on. My assumption is always that the others know better than me so unless I know full well why I'm entering and why their side of the bargain isn't right, then I won't.

Anyway, I'm waffling now, I could go on like this for ages. I wouldn't necessarily listen too much to what I have to say as I do think it's took me a hell of a long time to get to somewhere that others did so much shorter. But I think my point is that all these bruises and knocks mean something and if you can keep learning from each you will get there.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Think I might give up horses, is football easier?
Can't do any harm giving it a go, football prices are a lot more static than horse prices jumping all over the place. If I was starting over I certainly wouldn't choose horses to learn on that's for sure.
User avatar
alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:14 pm
Peter in his videos states he is more certain about the moves in the last 10mins, but why?
I think before 10 minutes it's more trader vs trader with little genuine money, most of the genuine money will come in the last 5 minutes which is better for everyone
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:54 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:14 pm
Peter in his videos states he is more certain about the moves in the last 10mins, but why?
I think before 10 minutes it's more trader vs trader with little genuine money, most of the genuine money will come in the last 5 minutes which is better for everyone
So why can't you trade other traders, if you learn to be better than most of them...? Isn't that what "financial markets" are most of the time?
How is genuine money any different? I presume we're talking "genuine" == punter/bookie..?
User avatar
alexmr2
Posts: 766
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:00 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:54 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:14 pm
Peter in his videos states he is more certain about the moves in the last 10mins, but why?
I think before 10 minutes it's more trader vs trader with little genuine money, most of the genuine money will come in the last 5 minutes which is better for everyone
So why can't you trade other traders, if you learn to be better than most of them...? Isn't that what "financial markets" are most of the time?
How is genuine money any different? I presume we're talking "genuine" == punter/bookie..?
I assume because most of the other traders/money (they will use bigger stakes) is from people who have been doing this for 5-20 years so they will know most of the tricks in the book and you are trying to beat them in a zero sum game. Although I doubt most bother trading earlier on because there isn't much opportunity, maybe they use bots though?

In the last 5 minutes there are stronger trends with momentum and more inefficient money from people like Joe in the pub putting a £100 bet on a favourite so he can brag to his friends about winning
User avatar
darchas
Posts: 304
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:11 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:00 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:54 pm


I think before 10 minutes it's more trader vs trader with little genuine money, most of the genuine money will come in the last 5 minutes which is better for everyone
So why can't you trade other traders, if you learn to be better than most of them...? Isn't that what "financial markets" are most of the time?
How is genuine money any different? I presume we're talking "genuine" == punter/bookie..?
I assume because most of the other traders/money (they will use bigger stakes) is from people who have been doing this for 5-20 years so they will know most of the tricks in the book and you are trying to beat them in a zero sum game

In the last 5 minutes there are stronger trends with momentum and more inefficient money from people like Joe in the pub putting a £100 bet on a favourite so he can brag to his friends about winning
This is what i mean about dumb money, is this true? I know tons of mug punters and not one of them has ever placed a bet on the exchange.
User avatar
darchas
Posts: 304
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Not saying this isn't true BTW, just I'd want to be able to quantity how much money this makes up if I'm basing my strat off it.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3552
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

darchas wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:18 pm
alexmr2 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:11 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:00 pm


So why can't you trade other traders, if you learn to be better than most of them...? Isn't that what "financial markets" are most of the time?
How is genuine money any different? I presume we're talking "genuine" == punter/bookie..?
I assume because most of the other traders/money (they will use bigger stakes) is from people who have been doing this for 5-20 years so they will know most of the tricks in the book and you are trying to beat them in a zero sum game

In the last 5 minutes there are stronger trends with momentum and more inefficient money from people like Joe in the pub putting a £100 bet on a favourite so he can brag to his friends about winning
This is what i mean about dumb money, is this true? I know tons of mug punters and not one of them has ever placed a bet on the exchange.
So in the last 5mins you get a lot of dumb money, is that what you're saying? Hence, it's easier to trade, rather than before 10mins when you're trading smart traders mostly? But that doesn't make sense, as Peter is smart, and he only trades the last 10... So I'm actually thinking pre-10mins is dumb traders, and you can't make money from them as they trade randomly...?
I'm confused, Peter video please?
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Most of the money on an average horse race comes in the last 5 or so minutes before post time. Which makes sense because that's when people get a chance to see the runners in the parade ring and see them heading down to the start.

Its just like waiting to see the team news on a football match before placing a large bet. Its not rocket science.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2037
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:41 pm
Most of the money on an average horse race comes in the last 5 or so minutes before post time. Which makes sense because that's when people get a chance to see the runners in the parade ring and see them heading down to the start.

Its just like waiting to see the team news on a football match before placing a large bet. Its not rocket science.
Yes, I realize that, but why is that really different to 30mins? I am guessing the answer is at 30mins you're trading trader price speculation, whereas at 5mins you're trading traders on real horse expectation..? It's still speculation based on what you see in the paddock, but you're all looking at the same thing...
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”