Trading What I see !?

[Korattt]

for what it’s worth personally I think a lot of people actually get on the right direction but at the wrong time.. discuss

[smallplayer]

Definitely finding the longer a position hangs around the more likely it's going to be a loser...!

Hmm not sure I would agree with that one, wouldn't logic dictate that the more time you give a trade the more likely it is to swing in your favor eventually? Even randomly? Providing it's a sensible position?

Maybe that's the secret swinging sauce? Opening sensible valuable positions and having the patience of a saint? If you perhaps let the short-term randomness at volatile price ranges work for you, instead against you?

Problem with pure swing approaches is people get uncomfortable holding on to positions, be it good ones or bad ones, the bad ones they want to scratch right away after they miss out on the best possible price, and good ones they want to butcher soon as it goes a few ticks into profit, it is very very difficult to find the right balance.

So how many ticks would you be willing to let a position go against you Kai, if you thought it was sensible?

[Kai]

Definitely finding the longer a position hangs around the more likely it's going to be a loser...!

Hmm not sure I would agree with that one, wouldn't logic dictate that the more time you give a trade the more likely it is to swing in your favor eventually? Even randomly? Providing it's a sensible position?

Maybe that's the secret swinging sauce? Opening sensible valuable positions and having the patience of a saint? If you perhaps let the short-term randomness at volatile price ranges work for you, instead against you?

Problem with pure swing approaches is people get uncomfortable holding on to positions, be it good ones or bad ones, the bad ones they want to scratch right away after they miss out on the best possible price, and good ones they want to butcher soon as it goes a few ticks into profit, it is very very difficult to find the right balance.

So how many ticks would you be willing to let a position go against you Kai, if you thought it was sensible?

I get that you're looking for a clear rigid answer of X amount of ticks for your more rigid approach, but not sure there is one, and wouldn't be a fair one either if I don't even actively trade this market anymore, not directly anyway. I was just encouraging Mr Goat to think logically about value and in general try and think for himself, instead of trying to directly copy others.

But the first potential answer that comes to mind is that it depends on the upside. If your upside is still +30 ticks then why panic at -3 ticks etc, and if you're looking for smaller moves then you have to be very defensive indeed, since you don't want your losers to be bigger than your winners, it's all just logic for the most part.

I have to regularly hold on to some less than ideal swing positions that I don't carefully open, which are temporarily showing a loss, for as long as the upside is still there.

People/newbies may get the long-term direction right most of the time but I feel that they're trying to predict short-term activity which is a lot more random, and that in nutshell is a major reason why they're struggling so hard and getting bullied in and out of positions, because you can't really predict near-randomness, unless you're sort of expecting it.

[smallplayer]

Thanks Kai. That was a very good answer without actually answering anything. Ever considered a career in politics.

[Kai]

Thanks Kai. That was a very good answer without actually answering anything. Ever considered a career in politics.

It's a fine line to walk sometimes, you do want to genuinely help but it can prove a bit costly when you overshare, which I constantly feel like I'm doing anyway In fact, my first couple hundred posts included some detailed screenshot tutorials with very rigid rules and strategies and fully transparent results, but luckily that was on a different forum

[smallplayer]

Any red over 4 ticks and I start to feel queasy

[Kai]

Any red over 4 ticks and I start to feel queasy

That's exactly what I mean, people are uncomfortable holding and managing positions, it's just a fact, whether they are doing good or bad I'm sure some people get more anxious about blowing a great trade than taking a small loss.

For your approach the answer is clear enough, you have to stay defensive and you don't answers from anyone else, if you barely have a losing day then your P&L is giving you a clear enough answer already.

And regarding forum posts in general, I know it sucks but try reading between the lines in general, we all had to do it.

[goat68]

These lower volume races are a real loss consumer, all it takes is some geser to come along and put 5k on and it moves the price 15 ticks into a loss like just happened for me...

[goat68]

Because pre-race charts are so random I can see a trade every market I look at !!!

[to75ne]

These lower volume races are a real loss consumer, all it takes is some geser to come along and put 5k on and it moves the price 15 ticks into a loss like just happened for me...

why did you try to it trade it then?

[goat68]

So today all the markets are moving in the intuitive direction and not the counter-intuitive direction, hence I have a string of losses.......
How the hell are you supposed to know what the day is?

[goat68]

These lower volume races are a real loss consumer, all it takes is some geser to come along and put 5k on and it moves the price 15 ticks into a loss like just happened for me...

why did you trade to it trade it then?

As my previous post said I can see a trade in every market!
You know those funny random pictures where people try and guess what they can see, and every one sees something...?

[to75ne]

[quote=goat68 post_id=236520 time=1601660115 user_id=28285

As my previous post said I can see a trade in every market!
You know those funny random pictures where people try and guess what they can see, and every one sees something...?
[/quote]

no, clearly your not seeing a viable trade.

[goat68]

So take a look at Iris Bud Newc 19:00
Goes up then down, then half way down stalls to a flat line..... What's that mean?
Layers all wanting to get in at that level?

[smallplayer]

These lower volume races are a real loss consumer, all it takes is some geser to come along and put 5k on and it moves the price 15 ticks into a loss like just happened for me...

Tbf, with second fav drifting madly and only two outsiders slowly coming in, it wasn't a time to be backing when it crossed 2. You could see the pressure building for it to come back sharply..also 5k sitting at 1.96 which was instantly taken. Only my views mind. I did not trade that race cause i'm quit for day, but if I had it would have been a back at top of range at 2.10. I'm learning like you Goat, but did you notice all these things?