Back the Newcomer in Horse Racing

[rencoetz]

Hi All

l have found this strategy recently - Back the Newcomer in Horse Racing

https://sportsbettingquant.com/strategi ... se-racing/

I have back tested this rule on my data set and with a bit of odds banding the results are fascinating.

The rule works for AW , Jumps and turf flat races and the returns are incredible and consistent over many years.

I just need a way to now find and easy way to find when a horse is racing for the first time on the day and automate this. I found 4000 units at SP - 5% Commision.

Let me know on your thoughts - and if anyone find similar results or how to find these selections daily

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi All

l have found this strategy recently - Back the Newcomer in Horse Racing

https://sportsbettingquant.com/strategi ... se-racing/

I have back tested this rule on my data set and with a bit of odds banding the results are fascinating.

The rule works for AW , Jumps and turf flat races and the returns are incredible and consistent over many years.

I just need a way to now find and easy way to find when a horse is racing for the first time on the day and automate this. I found 4000 units at SP - 5% Commision.

Let me know on your thoughts - and if anyone find similar results or how to find these selections daily

@ 2% comms, the data for all debut runners since 2012 is;

debut.jpg

Your R&D seems to be onto something.

[smallplayer]

Wouldn't wanna have started this just this year..variance would be testing your faith

[firlandsfarm]

Your R&D seems to be onto something.

Well it was before publishing it!! And, don't you just love Adrian Massey

[wearthefoxhat]

Your R&D seems to be onto something.

Well it was before publishing it!! And, don't you just love Adrian Massey

The good ole Adrian Massey site. Useful for some quick data crunching.

It's a good starting point, however, I'm sure the data can be improved logically.

[TraderFred]

Be some big price winners in there skewing the results too.

Can think of at least one 100-1 FTO winner this year off the top of my head, which must have had a huge BFSP, and this years runners aren’t even in profit.

And if those results are to £100 level stake then you’re likely going to be lowering the BFSP at those odds too.

[wearthefoxhat]

Be some big price winners in there skewing the results too.

Can think of at least one 100-1 FTO winner this year off the top of my head, which must have had a huge BFSP, and this years runners aren’t even in profit.

And if those results are to £100 level stake then you’re likely going to be lowering the BFSP at those odds too.

Yep, sounds about right.

[Atho55]

Anyone interested in how to do this. As follows and you need historical data.

Import ABC of runners into Excel using Query
Create Pivot(s) using hist data to return Runner Name & Runs
Do VLOOKUP from ABC list to Pivot. I have UK and IRE so 2 pivots. Pick is returned if no runs returned. Looking for Pick in both to qualify as a no previous runs
Create Pivot to look at ABC list and VLOOKUP results based on 2 Picks =1


Looks like this...

Sunday Not Runs.jpg

Not sure how reliable the results are but can be updated daily to throw a list out.

3 winners yesterday and a few 2nd and 3rds

Might be some candidates to BTL

[wearthefoxhat]

Anyone interested in how to do this. As follows and you need historical data.

Import ABC of runners into Excel using Query
Create Pivot(s) using hist data to return Runner Name & Runs
Do VLOOKUP from ABC list to Pivot. I have UK and IRE so 2 pivots. Pick is returned if no runs returned. Looking for Pick in both to qualify as a no previous runs
Create Pivot to look at ABC list and VLOOKUP results based on 2 Picks =1


Looks like this...


Sunday Not Runs.jpg

Not sure how reliable the results are but can be updated daily to throw a list out.

3 winners yesterday and a few 2nd and 3rds

Might be some candidates to BTL

Be interested to see what the OP has to add.

[Atho55]

Results for today...

Sun No Runs.jpg

[wilf]

There's so many in the same race, so like with a lot of sytems will probably need a few filters to be profitable. According to Flat Stats first run on turf is £-8627 down.

firsttimerun.png

[spreadbetting]

There's so many in the same race, so like with a lot of sytems will probably need a few filters to be profitable. According to Flat Stats first run on turf is £-8627 down.


firsttimerun.png

Most systems are simply backfitted to be profitable by switching filters on and of until the profit/loss becomes positive.