If I was managing 100/1000's of betting shop liabilities I would need a hedging position, otherwise you're just gambling on the other side of the market. I know a few on-course bookies that will use the betfair approach on a smaller scale. The racecourses want to stop them doing so (good luck with that)goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:31 amThank you for your detailed post.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:57 amFWIW just my take.goat68 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:39 amMmm, I've had the sudden realization there's something basic I don't understand, on Betfair exchange who are the other players?
So take a punter betting in Coral shop, he's backing at a price set by some Coral 'system' or a Coral trader, that trader has other punters to balance his book with, but obviously the Betfair exchange prices must be somewhere inline otherwise Coral could have an easy ARB?
Can someone explain how the market all links up, IE.how does Joe Bloggs in a Coral shop putting £5k on the fav affect my position on the exchange?
Back in the day, before the computer, Ladbrokes/Corals/William Hill had odds compilers that had (and still do) have strong connections to stable information. ie: Work riders/jockeys/trainers would "liaise" with them, in return get better prices for their bet(s). (also non-triers)
A savvy punter could easily spot this when a "corner" horse's price was shorter/longer than expected and could bet accordingly. The late John McCririck used to bang on about the watching the "magic sign" - Ladbrokes, If they were short on certain trainers runners, take that a positive.
Nowadays, If you were to make a market on Betfair on an event, say, todays Ayr 12.30, the starting point is likely to be oddschecker. Also, reference to a reliable betting forecast. (Racing Post)
ayr 12.30.jpg
bfcast.jpg
The main difference of course is we are now privy to vasts amounts of information that can be correlated/compared. Anyone can create their own ratings/assessments of a race or selection, and that stands testament to the amount of rating services out there.
Your role is to choose how you harvest that info, and how to interpret the right/relevant data to produce a clearer picture. The better at predicting the outcome and spotting value, the profits will roll in.
How does the market link up?
After all the data has been harvested and computed it now comes down to which company on oddschecker, over time, has shown to more reliable.
The others will follow, and then the supply and demand -market economy takes over and the trading desks manage their positions with a view on any other information available to their own company.
Joe Bloggs £5k corals bet.
That will depend on some of the above. Have their sources any strong/weak info on this, what's the overall position? Is the customer a VIP?
£5k on its own will probably be asborbed, however if Dettori is riding at Ascot and has the first 2 winners, and has 5 more rides, the liability is more likely to £100k and rolling.
What I don't know is how/who they currently hedge their positions with. On-Course bookies are not trading, so it's only accounts with other bookmakers or the exchanges. If I were Corals/Ladbrokes/William Hill, I would use the exchanges. (maybe that could explain some bigger than normal swings just before the off)
Exchange traders.
Say you don't believe on taking a view on a race, and just react to the volume/price movements/market movers. In reality there are traders out there that have some sweet setups, automation/semi-automation, fast pictures, alerts, that will over time, get the best of it.
Why bother?
Who's to say you don't find the next market/sweet spot that you can profit on and gain an edge.
path.jpg
So it is an interesting discussion, we keep mentioning trade once the volume arrives in the last 10mins, as as a punter you're not going to put your bet on til you've seen your horse circling... However, what we're actually saying is that punter's bet won't directly affect the exchange market, what will is the general consensus of multiple punters betting in Coral and then Coral having to balance/? at the exchange at some point...? Most likely in the last few mins. This is what makes me think, and you elude to it as well, what I frequently see as big moves in the last few mins are probably bookmakers backing/laying large amounts to balance their punter books...?
The Todays Horse Racing thread also highlighted the other aspect too, some-one/thing chasing their losses (Mad Bomber) - Usually on the favourite.
There's a Mad Bomber thread somewhere. I kind of put 2 and 2 together and think I know who it was. I was watching a you-tube video whereby a certain poker player admitted he was putting £10,000's into the market, irrespective of the price, and kept rolling it up until he got a winner.
He said he quite enjoyed watching the prices zip around everytime he did it. I recall he said he blew up £250k doing it.
