Hi Good People,
I suspect i'm heading towards the end of my BA subscription - this i reckon is probabaly my 3rd period of membership. This time I've really tried to follow the spirit of the videos that we've all seen.
However one area that I can't get past is not going in play. In fact I settled over the last month on a Back to Lay in play strategy using "my" prices as a starting point and then filtering through realistic possible selections.
I know the root of my problem and it is that i trade as i bet, which is from working out the "correct" price of the runners regardless of what the market says, and I wont allow myself to back what is say a 4/1 runner at anything less than the right back price. This isn't trading. The trouble is that of course you wont see pre off - only in the athletic event itself will the actual strengths / preferences of the field reveal themselves and therefore the true chance that a runner had and the price that it ought to have been.
Taking that, you might say well start by placing a lay bet and green up at "your" price, which is logical, but so many times the market has the right favourite but its been backed beyond its price, it might go on and hose up and I can't afford too many of them.
I've just finished a run of 260 small stakes trades, which you might describe as "back to lay" - out of which I made some money (average price drop 6.7 ticks) on 218 and lost/failed on the remainder. When "winning" the average amount was £1.85 and losing just over £10.77 per losing trade. So Im down on the mini season, but clearly its not the end of the World, how would you suggest I improve? I tend to feel: a) reluctance to backing below the correct price regardless of what the market is doing b) even more reluctant to laying a fav which is top rated using my own methodology c) some of the market movements are a little synthetic and possibly caused by trading anyway d) it's actually extremely taxing work and as I've said I could go back to betting into the bigger handicaps and acccepting that my figures were actually pretty acceptable. I've had a pc crash and lost some figures but looking at one file (i would feel that this is a bit better than my actual average, nonetheless) at one point as a bettor: 1090 runners, 213 winners, profit £4366 ROI 20.03 strike rate 19.54
That was actually a heck of a lot easier then the work Ive just put in to lose £40!
I want to stay trading but neccesarily I think Im on the way back. I wonder if there is sufficient money available on the non festival days to make realistic amounts pre-off. I am however impressed that the BA software does allow a much more rapid green up then using the Exchange "Cash Out" lottery and to be honest i really like it, but it aint working for me!
Time running out!
Hi newcomer,
I'm from a punting background and made a transition. As a punter I'd often spot value that wasn't obvious and the market completely disagreed with me and I quickly learnt that that value has very limited relevance in trading (after backing a value horse and feeling ill-placed confidence it would get backed down). As a cold trader you need to focus on what's going on in the market rather than a horses probability of winning.
If you're trading in-running then your knowledge of racing and a horse's running style should stand you in good stead. When you say you can't get past not going in-play do you mean resisting the temptation of not redding-up and letting liabilities run?
I'm from a punting background and made a transition. As a punter I'd often spot value that wasn't obvious and the market completely disagreed with me and I quickly learnt that that value has very limited relevance in trading (after backing a value horse and feeling ill-placed confidence it would get backed down). As a cold trader you need to focus on what's going on in the market rather than a horses probability of winning.
If you're trading in-running then your knowledge of racing and a horse's running style should stand you in good stead. When you say you can't get past not going in-play do you mean resisting the temptation of not redding-up and letting liabilities run?
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Diacritical Quark
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm
This sounds all too familiar. I too haven't been able to crack pre race and it isn't for everyone. You have to play to your strengths and if you're all too attached to the 'trade' emotionally it might not work for you. It might be that you're trying to do something that is impossible for you to do unless you can change your inherent personality.
This is conjecture of course and I'm only speaking from experience but trying to trade pre race for me just doesn't work, I have a lack of discipline and react very emotionally at times. I decided to play to my strengths, I had a decent knowledge of racing anyway, trainers, courses, form and a farily solid way of working out value on a particular horse or horses. These days I just allow the pre race traders and mugs to to back or lay certain horses until it offers value then dutch for a book % depending on my criteria. BA has a great dutching tab.
This is conjecture of course and I'm only speaking from experience but trying to trade pre race for me just doesn't work, I have a lack of discipline and react very emotionally at times. I decided to play to my strengths, I had a decent knowledge of racing anyway, trainers, courses, form and a farily solid way of working out value on a particular horse or horses. These days I just allow the pre race traders and mugs to to back or lay certain horses until it offers value then dutch for a book % depending on my criteria. BA has a great dutching tab.
I've said it many times here......punters have enormous mental hurdles to overcome when trading. It's very important to develop a trader's mindset. Sadly, it's a challenge that swallows many up, despite their best efforts
As a punter, we've had a lifetime of getting a run for our money. Our horse might run terribly, or our over 2.5 goals bet ended 0-0. Whatever it is, we've always had a run. We don't get that in trading.......closing out for a loss before the event has started, is an alien condition for punters
I used to be someone who let trades go IP, and I had some eyewatering losses. I've quoted my last one on this forum many times, albeit not for a while - New Years Day 2008. Arsenal were at home to West Ham. Arsenal had been drifting all morning and I jumped on board with a lay at 1.40. I got matched and they drifted to 1.41. I had a nice green there, but they were chipping away at 1.42. That is where my offset was sat waiting, I knew I was edging nearer the front of the queue, but then BANG......West Ham declared a weakened team and Arsenal caved in to 1.37. I went from having a green to a very nasty red. I was so angry, I couldn't bring myself to trade out, so I let it go IP......all I needed was for West Ham to keep a clean sheet for 10 minutes. They didn't, Eduardo scored after 2 mins. I left it IP still, because if West Ham equalised I'll make a huge profit. They didn't, it ended 2-0.......I went from having a £9 green to losing £2000.
I never done it again, in fact I went self-employed 6 months later, and have been ever since
I used to post-it notes on the wall, and on the ceiling "NEVER GO IN PLAY"
I also used to reward myself with a triangle of Toblerone (my favourite) every time I was tempted, but stayed strong.
It's true what they say - bad habits can be transformed into good habits
My post is simply to show you and all other struggling traders, that this horrendous temptation can be beaten.....I'm here to tell the tale
As a punter, we've had a lifetime of getting a run for our money. Our horse might run terribly, or our over 2.5 goals bet ended 0-0. Whatever it is, we've always had a run. We don't get that in trading.......closing out for a loss before the event has started, is an alien condition for punters
I used to be someone who let trades go IP, and I had some eyewatering losses. I've quoted my last one on this forum many times, albeit not for a while - New Years Day 2008. Arsenal were at home to West Ham. Arsenal had been drifting all morning and I jumped on board with a lay at 1.40. I got matched and they drifted to 1.41. I had a nice green there, but they were chipping away at 1.42. That is where my offset was sat waiting, I knew I was edging nearer the front of the queue, but then BANG......West Ham declared a weakened team and Arsenal caved in to 1.37. I went from having a green to a very nasty red. I was so angry, I couldn't bring myself to trade out, so I let it go IP......all I needed was for West Ham to keep a clean sheet for 10 minutes. They didn't, Eduardo scored after 2 mins. I left it IP still, because if West Ham equalised I'll make a huge profit. They didn't, it ended 2-0.......I went from having a £9 green to losing £2000.
I never done it again, in fact I went self-employed 6 months later, and have been ever since
I used to post-it notes on the wall, and on the ceiling "NEVER GO IN PLAY"
I also used to reward myself with a triangle of Toblerone (my favourite) every time I was tempted, but stayed strong.
It's true what they say - bad habits can be transformed into good habits
My post is simply to show you and all other struggling traders, that this horrendous temptation can be beaten.....I'm here to tell the tale
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
I see myself in what LeTiss is describing. I used to go in play all the time, some big big losses and I literally have no idea how many banks I blew as there were that many! I too had post it notes all over the place, even read a book on mindfulness which is a few hours of my life I'm never getting back!
I feel for Newcomer because its very hard to give advice on how to beat it. I would take a break completely from the markets for a couple of months at a time when I could no longer take the frustration of going in play. It should be such a simple thing to not give into the urge but its pretty difficult to stop doing. Like LeTiss says coming from a gambling background probably makes it that much more difficult as it seems you're sort of hardwired with certain behaviours.
How did I stop going in play? I honestly don't know. The last time I came back after taking a break away from the markets I told myself that if I still couldn't stop myself from going in play then I would cut my losses and quit the markets for good. Amazingly I haven't had the urge to go in play at all since coming back that last time and now have no issues with it at all.
Its obviously possible to stop doing it as me and LeTiss are proof of that and I'm sure there are many others on the forum who had the same problem but I've no idea how to give advice on stopping it when I don't know how I managed it myself!
All I can say is good luck and I hope you can figure it out or like me just stumble across something that works.
I feel for Newcomer because its very hard to give advice on how to beat it. I would take a break completely from the markets for a couple of months at a time when I could no longer take the frustration of going in play. It should be such a simple thing to not give into the urge but its pretty difficult to stop doing. Like LeTiss says coming from a gambling background probably makes it that much more difficult as it seems you're sort of hardwired with certain behaviours.
How did I stop going in play? I honestly don't know. The last time I came back after taking a break away from the markets I told myself that if I still couldn't stop myself from going in play then I would cut my losses and quit the markets for good. Amazingly I haven't had the urge to go in play at all since coming back that last time and now have no issues with it at all.
Its obviously possible to stop doing it as me and LeTiss are proof of that and I'm sure there are many others on the forum who had the same problem but I've no idea how to give advice on stopping it when I don't know how I managed it myself!
All I can say is good luck and I hope you can figure it out or like me just stumble across something that works.
Never punted but can understand the temptation and the state of mind that's willing to let it run. Can't say I struggled with that one but have friends that did and some of them weren't punters either, so don't think it's exclusive to the punter and gambler backgrounds only.
Never gone into any depth with that one but I'd assume it has something to do with how fast your mind is forced to accept a bad trading outcome, especially if it looked okay or even good just a moment ago, that is a very difficult thing to do for everyone and I think the faster this transition the more likely it is that we deem this outcome as "unacceptable".
In other words, say you're currently looking at +50 profit but you didn't take it, although your mind already starts counting that as "money won", so when it suddenly runs away from you to -100, you feel like you've lost that 50 that you never had in the first place, plus another 100 on top of that, and you may see this as simply "unacceptable" so irrational decisions like letting it go inplay or doing stupid stuff to crawl back are much more likely here, compared to a position that is slowly going wrong since the start but your mind had plenty of time to accept this bad outcome.
Having by now seen and experienced a complete "market collapse" just before the off on multiple sports, when the inplay boys start getting involved with very late money they can distort the market rather quickly and easily catch traders off guard, which can cause a lot of panic in the market as you can imagine with some sharp moves. Sometimes I can use this momentum to my advantage if I realize and react in time but other times when I still have positions open on the other side I've been caught off guard as well, which are probably the only situations where I can get royally pissed off, but still whether that decimates your profit or pushes you into a sudden loss you still have to accept it almost instantly.
At the end of the day this is only one market so its outcome shouldn't really decide whether you've had a good day or a bad one, so I believe confidence plays a big role here as well, although I do get pissed off but this is mostly temporary until the next market, or at the worst until the next day when your mind resets.
That's why my preferred way of dealing with that is scaling my positions and stakes down the closer it is to the off, no matter what market/sport, to insulate my positions from any late shenanigans, so that if I do get caught out then it's really not a big deal, and this also gives me the flexibility and the opportunity to potentially jump on a very late quick trade. This conclusion has come after I've ruined far too many decent results by greedily waiting to get filled until the very end of the market.
Hope that helps
Cheers fellas, I really appreciate your input and taking time out for doing that. I'm going to run anorther batch of small stakes but against fewer selections. I'm going to resist IP and be more selective as to when to operate anyway. i think its feeling that I've got to do every single race, that's done me in. I never used to bet that way.
I think this pretty much nails it. Its why I have taken so much time before fully committing. The connections between financial trading and exchange trading are striking. At the end of the day a betting exchange is a financial exchange like any other just with its own nuances. The act of trading is something that took me a long time to get my head around and many aspects of trading currencies and stocks are in many ways simpler and many of the dynamics of horseracing markets are unique to themselves.
As a trader you are essentially trading volatility rather than taking outright directional positions and your strategy will dictate whether you buy or sell it. But it takes some time to find out what that means and I would advise the OP to do some serious studying on the subject. Almost every single trader who attempts to go it alone individually as a novice loses money. Institutional traders have large corporations and training programs integrated into them so most traders don't fail within that environment. The most successful traders in history started out losing...read Market Wizards by Jack Schwager.
I have studied financial trading for years and I am still not sure I can crack it because at the end of the day, trading reflects what you are as a person and many people just don't tick the boxes....maybe I am one for all I know.
