Trading What I see !?

[Euler]

Trading is the process of anticipation. If you follow the market you will get beaten up by it.

[goat68]

Thanks Peter, yes I can see that, for me I felt I could anticipate best mainly from the charts, but that idea seems to be not popular! And also given the pros like yourself trade the last 4 mins or so, you're obviously not anticipating based on charts!!
However, I find it hard to see how to anticipate based on ladder order flow that flips up and down like a yoyo!!
I actually think it's more of a Star Wars type thing, "May the Trading force be with you" ! Through many years of experience you develop this hidden force connection with the ladder, you can't explain it, it's a hidden force

[goat68]

Hate these spikes, spent 5 races to make about £7, all wiped out by one spike!

[BetWin]

I have to say, coming from the standpoint of a newbie, that this is one of the most informative threads I've read so far. I've read the whole thread and there's plenty of stuff that's got me scratching my head but I can see there's some great advice in here.
I'm going to try and watch some ladders and resist the temptation to jump in from now on; I need to see the patterns first or how will I know what the edge is?
Goat you are not alone in trying to get your head round all this!

[goat68]

I have to say, coming from the standpoint of a newbie, that this is one of the most informative threads I've read so far. I've read the whole thread and there's plenty of stuff that's got me scratching my head but I can see there's some great advice in here.
I'm going to try and watch some ladders and resist the temptation to jump in from now on; I need to see the patterns first or how will I know what the edge is?
Goat you are not alone in trying to get your head round all this!

Welcome to the thread!
Yeah Ive not got much hair left!
Just trade Chelm 20:00, and that certainly had me scratching my head, no way I could see of anticipating the moves there...

[goat68]

If you think about it logically, Q) how can you anticipate the future?
A) you can't exactly
Q) So how come some people apparently can?
A) They understand the market and how participants in general psychologically behave

[goat68]

I still have trouble with who the participants are, and Peter indicated I think you can't really know, but if you don't understand who is in the market how can you anticipate the market's psychology???

[goat68]

All you can do is guess they are either human, or a bot written by a human.
So with that in mind, if you gather most of the information the human/bot is observing then you can make a percentage guess of anticipated moves...

(Excuse my thinking out loud, I think I am done now!)

[goat68]

Q) Are most market participants using live TV ?

[Emmson]

When you make an entry do you ask for a price or take what's there?

[goat68]

When you make an entry do you ask for a price or take what's there?

It varies depending on what I see the ladder doing, if I think the dynamic is a move in progress I will jump in front. If it is more static and waiting for my anticipated move, I'll ask.

[wearthefoxhat]

When you make an entry do you ask for a price or take what's there?

It varies depending on what I see the ladder doing, if I think the dynamic is a move in progress I will jump in front. If it is more static and waiting for my anticipated move, I'll ask.

Is that an approach you're currently testing? or, Is it one that was recommended by a video?

[goat68]

My biggest problem is I turn up at a market and find a trade, I don't wait for a trade. If the market shape I determine is poor, I do move on, but if it has a shape I feel looks good I find a reason for a trade, it's usually quite easy to. Eg.Horse A is coming in, B is heading out, C is just above a crossover, obviously I should back A, enter....!

In hindsight I should have an opinion on what the odds are of the given trade I see actually playing out, to determine if it is value? In reality I haven't a clue!! That's a problem!
Since in the medium term I'm losing, the odds for most of my trades must be poor. But since I can't quantity the value of each trade, I have no idea which ones I should not enter...

[goat68]

When you make an entry do you ask for a price or take what's there?

It varies depending on what I see the ladder doing, if I think the dynamic is a move in progress I will jump in front. If it is more static and waiting for my anticipated move, I'll ask.

Is that an approach you're currently testing? or, Is it one that was recommended by a video?

It's the one I feel is right for me, and is the method I am following.
Some videos I've seen suggest ask, however a lot of Peters videos he takes what's there... I do a combination.

[speedyhamster]

Trading is the process of anticipation. If you follow the market you will get beaten up by it.

The way i thought about that was imagine the Motorway is closed and i have to come off, i zig zag all over the place (minor roads) but get there in the end.