Aren't you assuming mean reversion there?speedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 pmThe way i thought about that was imagine the Motorway is closed and i have to come off, i zig zag all over the place (minor roads) but get there in the end.
What will happen to Horse A if Horse C bounces off the crossover and reverse? will that help or hinder my position?goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pmMy biggest problem is I turn up at a market and find a trade, I don't wait for a trade. If the market shape I determine is poor, I do move on, but if it has a shape I feel looks good I find a reason for a trade, it's usually quite easy to. Eg.Horse A is coming in, B is heading out, C is just above a crossover, obviously I should back A, enter....!
More often than not I see horse C go through the crossover and then reverse back above it!speedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:20 pmWhat will happen to Horse A if Horse C bounces off the crossover and reverse? will that help or hinder my position?goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pmMy biggest problem is I turn up at a market and find a trade, I don't wait for a trade. If the market shape I determine is poor, I do move on, but if it has a shape I feel looks good I find a reason for a trade, it's usually quite easy to. Eg.Horse A is coming in, B is heading out, C is just above a crossover, obviously I should back A, enter....!
What will happen to Horse A if Horse C pushes through the crossover and continues with momentum? will that help or hinder my position?
should i wait until i see what Horse C does?
it was the way i remembered that the price might not go in a straight line , to try to ignore market noise as Peter calls itgoat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:51 pmAren't you assuming mean reversion there?speedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 pmThe way i thought about that was imagine the Motorway is closed and i have to come off, i zig zag all over the place (minor roads) but get there in the end.
Which is not always the case?
can often trickle through and bounce back.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:29 pmMore often than not I see horse C go through the crossover and then reverse back above it!speedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:20 pmWhat will happen to Horse A if Horse C bounces off the crossover and reverse? will that help or hinder my position?goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:29 pmMy biggest problem is I turn up at a market and find a trade, I don't wait for a trade. If the market shape I determine is poor, I do move on, but if it has a shape I feel looks good I find a reason for a trade, it's usually quite easy to. Eg.Horse A is coming in, B is heading out, C is just above a crossover, obviously I should back A, enter....!
What will happen to Horse A if Horse C pushes through the crossover and continues with momentum? will that help or hinder my position?
should i wait until i see what Horse C does?
That's how I have been trying to trade, by watching for what I thought were those sort of chart patternsspeedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:07 pmcan often trickle through and bounce back.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:29 pmMore often than not I see horse C go through the crossover and then reverse back above it!speedyhamster wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:20 pm
What will happen to Horse A if Horse C bounces off the crossover and reverse? will that help or hinder my position?
What will happen to Horse A if Horse C pushes through the crossover and continues with momentum? will that help or hinder my position?
should i wait until i see what Horse C does?
it this happens say 80% of the time , could there be a way of taking advantage of this? and have you spotted a pattern in the market ? im not implying there is but is a pattern that repeats itself.
could that be an example of anticipation ie i anticipate Horse C will trickle over then reverse or bounce off the crossover
I've not played poker, lots of blackjack but that's simple by comparison.
IIRC you were getting seemingly better results at the start when you were keeping things simple, before everyone pitched in with their views and made you overthink everything.
Hate to throw another thing in the mix but "iceberg orders" are a thing.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:29 pmJust learned another nugget at the cost of 74p !
If I am say laying at 5.0, and weight of money is strongly in my favour, BUT the price refuses to go above 5.0, every time it does it gets backed to 5.0 again repeatedly. Even though there is a large weight to go out there are obvious backers at 5.1. The longer it goes on then although against the WOM the trade is actually to back.
I just saw this and that lay money in the ladder from 4.5-5.0 very quickly disappeared or got eaten by backers...
Yes, I remember Peter's iceberg order video comment. So basically in my example someone was drip feeding a large back order in at 5.1, which assuming it is large enough would engulf all those layers...Kai wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:40 pmHate to throw another thing in the mix but "iceberg orders" are a thing.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:29 pmJust learned another nugget at the cost of 74p !
If I am say laying at 5.0, and weight of money is strongly in my favour, BUT the price refuses to go above 5.0, every time it does it gets backed to 5.0 again repeatedly. Even though there is a large weight to go out there are obvious backers at 5.1. The longer it goes on then although against the WOM the trade is actually to back.
I just saw this and that lay money in the ladder from 4.5-5.0 very quickly disappeared or got eaten by backers...
Pretty sure Peter mentions it somewhere in his videos as well. I find it a bit easier to spot them on football markets due to the higher volumes all-around.
In short, it means that the money you see available in the market might just be the tip of the iceberg, you'll only know how much money is sitting there etc when the price action gets to that price point. So part of reading order flow is watching which price points get replenished and so on.
