Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

Nugget #2, if I get one of those nasty spikes against me, trade out immediately, as odds are it will only get worse......

[goat68]

Traded 14 markets today, turning up at 5-10mins and finding a trade as ever...!
7 wins
7 losses
Net: -78pence !!!!

I guess that's a cheap cost for what I learned....

[Trader Pat]

I think that's part of your problem, you're in the market too early.

Just wait until the previous race is just about to finish and you'll see the volume enter the market, that's the cue to get involved. There are exceptions to that of course but in general it's the best way to trade the markets.

[rik]

I guess that's a cheap cost for what I learned....

can you identify something you learned?

[Korattt]

Pat’s right, if you can combine that with identifying your angle on any given market then you’ve a chance of a profit

[goat68]

I guess that's a cheap cost for what I learned....

can you identify something you learned?

Nuggets 1 & 2 mentioned earlier

[goat68]

I think that's part of your problem, you're in the market too early.

Just wait until the previous race is just about to finish and you'll see the volume enter the market, that's the cue to get involved. There are exceptions to that of course but in general it's the best way to trade the markets.

Thanks for the tip, which I keep on hearing, but apologizies if I struggle with it.. but it's how to interpret that volume I struggle with...eg.
- "don't just follow the market, it will beat you up". so if I see volume come in to back the fav, don't just follow it..?? So lay it?!
Do you see my confusion?
There's volume at 10mins, why is that volume any different other than less if it? If I am trading £4 stake it ain't going to make any difference?

I've heard Peter, Caan and others all say wait for the money to arrive, obviously! But not really say why?

I'd like to think the answer is moves won't be so random, and trends will be predictable as the real money that is watching the horses in the ring is trading, and not just traders Vs traders.
Is that right?

[goat68]

Also when the money arrives and the 1000s are jumping up and down in the ladder, I tend to wet myself!!

[Trader Pat]

Everybody has a different style of trading but what I do and probably most others is as soon as a race goes in play I switch to the next market and I just watch the ladder, I don't get involved in the market at that point unless I see something obvious. You spend the next 2-3 minutes until the previous race finishes just trying to form an opinion on what you think MAY happen. When the volume then hits the market you're really looking for confirmation of what you thought may happen and that's when you can get involved. Sitting on your hands and watching the market is a skill in itself, I used to open the market and get involved right away just chasing money up and down the ladder. I managed to lose €52 in a race one day even though my first order was to lay at 3.3 and my last order was to back at 3.3! I chased the noise all over the place only for the price to finish where it started!

You're talking about a £4 stake so it shouldn't make any difference but it does. I don't want to get into the whole debate about volume versus liquidity again partly because I cant remember who I was speaking to about it in the first place! But 10 minutes from the off there is very little liquidity in most racing markets especially with the last race still going on, the 1000s you mention jumping up and down is exactly what you want, that's liquidity! It doesn't matter what market you're trading you want the time between getting your opening and closing orders matched to be as little as possible.

The real money that's watching the horses in the parade ring is just a fraction of the money that's going to be matched come post time.

[jimibt]

while i think it's good (sometimes) to relay a running commentary of your moves and motivations, I honestly think that micro managing daily performance is pretty self deafeating (might copywrite that phrase ). why??... because the emotions of the moment that make you reach for the POST button are very different to the emotions at play when the seas are calm and there are no strom clouds. the impression (and this is just my take) that i get here is that you are looking for pointers when you KNOW things have gone awry but unfortunately are not absorbing all the good things that you've maybe accomplished.

In short, maybe best to refrain from daily posting and actually review the end of week analysis on your trades. you obviously keep notes etc, so this should be a simple task. i think daily verbage has got very little context and will reveal no strengths or weaknesses... a weekly summary might just focus you on the good, the bad and the fuggly...

just my 2 cents from my particular journey thus far.

[Maturin]

Hi Goat,

Good to see you're still at it. You can see the advantage of using small stakes, as that loss of 78p means you've still got plenty left in your bank to pay for the 'education' so to speak, and it will last you a lot longer (and hopefully start to increase at some point).

Regarding volume and the real money coming in - yes this gives a clearer indication I think on price movement, and can confirm/continue a previous move that started earlier, but equally the informed money could start a complete reversal - so that's something to watch out for. I agree with Pat, just watching and not entering a trade is a really difficult thing to master, and I'm still not fully there on that.

To add another potentially conflicting piece of advice into the mix! I think you might want to exit your trade before the last 2 minutes or so, as this is where things can get really volatile, with huge sums sloshing about as you alluded to, and it is so easy to end up chasing the market all over the place. Of course, sometimes they will go in your favour, but there are often very fast reversals that easily catch you out. I'm still far too slow to exit positions when they start reversing - something to work on.

Also, yes there were more spikes today and they are annoying. I noticed them at the Curragh at the time reported yesterday of about 4:40 - 4:30 to post. I'm not experienced enough to know what they are or why they occur. What you could try, if you are on the wrong side of it, is to wait for a retracement after the spike (which usually happens), then close your position, then open a reverse position. Whether you feel comfortable doing that I don't know.

Lastly, as has probably already been mentioned and I don't know if you are doing it, but try lowering the refresh rate to say 500 ms and that might make it easier to see through some of the noise and put you in a calmer state of mind.

Cheers

[goat68]

Everybody has a different style of trading but what I do and probably most others is as soon as a race goes in play I switch to the next market and I just watch the ladder, I don't get involved in the market at that point unless I see something obvious. You spend the next 2-3 minutes until the previous race finishes just trying to form an opinion on what you think MAY happen. When the volume then hits the market you're really looking for confirmation of what you thought may happen and that's when you can get involved. Sitting on your hands and watching the market is a skill in itself, I used to open the market and get involved right away just chasing money up and down the ladder. I managed to lose €52 in a race one day even though my first order was to lay at 3.3 and my last order was to back at 3.3! I chased the noise all over the place only for the price to finish where it started!

You're talking about a £4 stake so it shouldn't make any difference but it does. I don't want to get into the whole debate about volume versus liquidity again partly because I cant remember who I was speaking to about it in the first place! But 10 minutes from the off there is very little liquidity in most racing markets especially with the last race still going on, the 1000s you mention jumping up and down is exactly what you want, that's liquidity! It doesn't matter what market you're trading you want the time between getting your opening and closing orders matched to be as little as possible.

The real money that's watching the horses in the parade ring is just a fraction of the money that's going to be matched come post time.

Thanks Pat, very informative. One puzzle, is your last comment, the real money watching the horses in the ring being only a fraction.. that surprises me, you're sort of implying most of the money is traders not watching the horses live, really???
On what basis are they trading then? It sort of sounds the horses themselves are irrelevant?!

[goat68]

Hi Goat,

Good to see you're still at it. You can see the advantage of using small stakes, as that loss of 78p means you've still got plenty left in your bank to pay for the 'education' so to speak, and it will last you a lot longer (and hopefully start to increase at some point).

Regarding volume and the real money coming in - yes this gives a clearer indication I think on price movement, and can confirm/continue a previous move that started earlier, but equally the informed money could start a complete reversal - so that's something to watch out for. I agree with Pat, just watching and not entering a trade is a really difficult thing to master, and I'm still not fully there on that.

To add another potentially conflicting piece of advice into the mix! I think you might want to exit your trade before the last 2 minutes or so, as this is where things can get really volatile, with huge sums sloshing about as you alluded to, and it is so easy to end up chasing the market all over the place. Of course, sometimes they will go in your favour, but there are often very fast reversals that easily catch you out. I'm still far too slow to exit positions when they start reversing - something to work on.

Also, yes there were more spikes today and they are annoying. I noticed them at the Curragh at the time reported yesterday of about 4:40 - 4:30 to post. I'm not experienced enough to know what they are or why they occur. What you could try, if you are on the wrong side of it, is to wait for a retracement after the spike (which usually happens), then close your position, then open a reverse position. Whether you feel comfortable doing that I don't know.

Lastly, as has probably already been mentioned and I don't know if you are doing it, but try lowering the refresh rate to say 500 ms and that might make it easier to see through some of the noise and put you in a calmer state of mind.

Cheers

Hi again, yes I'm still here, smaller stakes yes, and I'm feeling more determined.
Thanks for the great tips.
I'm going to work on all these this week, and give an update next weekend, as was suggested I've been a bit too verbal with my posts!
Cheers

[Trader Pat]

Everybody has a different style of trading but what I do and probably most others is as soon as a race goes in play I switch to the next market and I just watch the ladder, I don't get involved in the market at that point unless I see something obvious. You spend the next 2-3 minutes until the previous race finishes just trying to form an opinion on what you think MAY happen. When the volume then hits the market you're really looking for confirmation of what you thought may happen and that's when you can get involved. Sitting on your hands and watching the market is a skill in itself, I used to open the market and get involved right away just chasing money up and down the ladder. I managed to lose €52 in a race one day even though my first order was to lay at 3.3 and my last order was to back at 3.3! I chased the noise all over the place only for the price to finish where it started!

You're talking about a £4 stake so it shouldn't make any difference but it does. I don't want to get into the whole debate about volume versus liquidity again partly because I cant remember who I was speaking to about it in the first place! But 10 minutes from the off there is very little liquidity in most racing markets especially with the last race still going on, the 1000s you mention jumping up and down is exactly what you want, that's liquidity! It doesn't matter what market you're trading you want the time between getting your opening and closing orders matched to be as little as possible.

The real money that's watching the horses in the parade ring is just a fraction of the money that's going to be matched come post time.

Thanks Pat, very informative. One puzzle, is your last comment, the real money watching the horses in the ring being only a fraction.. that surprises me, you're sort of implying most of the money is traders not watching the horses live, really???
On what basis are they trading then? It sort of sounds the horses themselves are irrelevant?!

To an extent they are!

A lot of the money in the market near post time is traders and automation. The next time a horse rears up when going into the stalls look at the ladder, the price shoots out but there's still lots of money on the lay side. If all that money was being actively managed then it would be pulled as soon as the horse started acting up. Also when a race is late off by a few minutes look at how dead the market becomes because most of the automation and bots leave the market.

[Archery1969]

It’s not just about waiting for volume to come in as that can happen at any point from 10mins out. It’s also about how much money is being matched per second.

There’s a long time poster on here who doesn’t post very often but he once said he doesn’t get involved unless £500+ is being matched per second.

No point entering a horse racing market if it has £100,000 matched but has £2,000+ waiting on both sides and is not currently going anywhere and the amount currently being matched is less than £100 per second.