Racing Post Forecasts

[Morbius]

Hi Guys,

This question like all other questions by newbs is probably done to death and boring for the sages on here but please excuse me for asking and educating myself

Do any of the pre-race horseracing traders use in any way shape or form the betting forecast from the RP even if only as a framework??? Or is the market operating totally independent of it??? I have read several articles on the internet where the writers claimed that RP forecast was actually quite good and the algorithm they use is pretty decent but my experience has been that the forecast SP has been someway off in many races.

Likewise with something like Napchecker or PROFORM or any other source for that matter....after around 500-600 markets traded which I know is nothing, I am starting to think that the market is an animal all to itself. My gut tells me that if this was any good as a guide then everybody would be using it which would eliminate its effectiveness.

[Derek27]

I can assure you that there is no algorithm to work out SP forecasts. It's based on knowledge of form and horses. The RP forecast used to be the most accurate when I was a punter and it was useful for betting purposes, but from a trading perspective I think it has very limited value, if any. The exchange is usually ahead of the bookies for market moves and you could just as easily use the exchange as a forecast.

[Dallas]

I rarely even look at the name of the horse I'm trading let alone anything about it

Apart from ladder activity the only thing along the lines of what you are asking which I do take a bit of notice of as the day progresses is jockey/trainer performance in a meeting. That does have a direct impact on upcoming races

[Morbius]

Thanks Derek and Dallas, that's kind of confirmed what I was starting to suspect

[wearthefoxhat]

There's no harm in building in a betting forecast to a B2L or L2B strategy.

As already said, the racing post is still considered as a fair guide by most when measuring the shape of a race. If used as starting point and when comparing it to exchanges, say an hour or so before off time, it can give you a clue on a market move, that then needs confirmation. (steamers do tend to continue to steam)

I've found that most betting forecasts as predictors, are fairly good, but there's nothing better than trying to compile one of your own. There's sufficient data around, it's just how it's then prioritised and graded according to its' usefulness/accuracy. That's how many ratings services tend to present their information.