Trading What I see !?

[Derek27]

It's annoying that the markets haven't grown they way they should but Betfair headed down the sports / bookie route rather than financial markets, else it may be a bit higher now. But such is life, you can still make a decent living from it and it doesn't attract the sorts of people you may see in a financial market. So that's no bad thing.

They seems to have given up on the USA.

https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/99 ... ing-market

Disappointed, but given the number of Americans that support Trump, it's not surprising many of them would rather support the tote and back a horse at 3.0 when they could get 6-8 with Betfair.

[Trader Pat]

It's annoying that the markets haven't grown they way they should but Betfair headed down the sports / bookie route rather than financial markets, else it may be a bit higher now. But such is life, you can still make a decent living from it and it doesn't attract the sorts of people you may see in a financial market. So that's no bad thing.

They seems to have given up on the USA.

https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/99 ... ing-market

Disappointed, but given the number of Americans that support Trump, it's not surprising many of them would rather support the tote and back a horse at 3.0 when they could get 6-8 with Betfair.

Don't pollute this pure thread with politics!

[Euler]

“There are several reasons for our decision to withdraw from the NJ market, including a customer base used to exotic wagers and a reluctance by major US racing associations to embrace a different business model.”

They forgot to mention that they didn't really try very hard.

Every presentation I did over there to non aligned bodies made their jaws drop to the floor and feel slightly embarrassed they were so far behind the curve. There was a real appetite at the consumer end, but not on the business end. After the merger with Stars group, it was inevitable as there are too many vested interests.

The restrictions in NJ were mental. We were not even allowed to develop for the NJ market or license our software to be used in the NJ market. It was a total shut out. I offered to head to NJ for education but was never taken up, even when I was out there I got no invite.

We are now speaking to startups to see if that's a viable route.

[goat68]

So I'm still going... Last week good start, then struggled Saturday as usual, ended breakeven.

Still struggle with exiting losers, I have a rough gauge of evaluating would I still trade here? And a rough limit of -reward against me. What typically happens it hovers around -reward then goes out and I end up trading out for -1.5 reward!!
It's tough, I just had one that went out to -1.25xreward, I hovered over the trade out but I looked at it and thought this market is trying to throw me out, within 15sec I was back in green!
Sort of pleased I read that, although might have just been lucky!!

[goat68]

I do seem to be making overall progress, but feel as though I'm trading by the seat of my pants!! The market turbulence can be extreme...!

[darchas]

I do seem to be making overall progress, but feel as though I'm trading by the seat of my pants!! The market turbulence can be extreme...!

Sounds like a good week. If you're observant, patient and approach the market with the right dose of respect, then time spent on the ladder will always be valuable imo.

[smallplayer]

I do seem to be making overall progress, but feel as though I'm trading by the seat of my pants!! The market turbulence can be extreme...!

Sounds like you are afraid Goat. You shouldn't really care which direction the market goes tbh. Either way you should have a plan to deal with it, so result doesn't matter. And of course your back testing, small stakes trials, etc should have already shown you that your system is profitable in the long run, so no need to worry about individual results. That extreme market turbulence that you are seeing is being perceived as gentle rolling waves by others who are calm and stress free in the markets.

[goat68]

Another crap day, multiple large losers wiping previous weeks profit...
I'm not convinced my 1:1.5 win:loss ratio strategy is working as I can't significantly hit a high win rate.
As I've mentioned before, I let positions go til -reward, then if they move further I close, which typically ends up -1.5xreward
From profit graphs I see of consistent winners on here I don't see large downswings, so wondering about changing strategy maybe even scalp...

[Trader Pat]

You have to forget about what other people are making and just stay focused on yourself.

Reading some of your other posts including the one about trading by the seat of your pants it sounds to me like you're over staking. You have to be comfortable with the stakes you're using, and when I say that I mean can you place an order in the market sit back and fold your arms and not be twitchy when the market moves 2 ticks against you?

Probably an idea to reduce your stakes until you're able to do that

[auto-matt]

Another crap day, multiple large losers wiping previous weeks profit...
I'm not convinced my 1:1.5 win:loss ratio strategy is working as I can't significantly hit a high win rate.
As I've mentioned before, I let positions go til -reward, then if they move further I close, which typically ends up -1.5xreward
From profit graphs I see of consistent winners on here I don't see large downswings, so wondering about changing strategy maybe even scalp...

It has been a really shite afternoon, I walked away for hour or so and come back around 5pm mark where it crosses over into the evening session and quiets down, really weak markets with a lot of competitive races is always hard work

[goat68]

Another crap day, multiple large losers wiping previous weeks profit...
I'm not convinced my 1:1.5 win:loss ratio strategy is working as I can't significantly hit a high win rate.
As I've mentioned before, I let positions go til -reward, then if they move further I close, which typically ends up -1.5xreward
From profit graphs I see of consistent winners on here I don't see large downswings, so wondering about changing strategy maybe even scalp...

It has been a really shite afternoon, I walked away for hour or so and come back around 5pm mark where it crosses over into the evening session and quiets down, really weak markets with a lot of competitive races is always hard work

Yeah, messes me up every time!!

[Maturin]

Hi Goat,

Have you tried scaling in and out of a position at all, or are you just putting opening a position and then putting a closing position at (x) ticks away and a stop loss at (y) ticks away for example?

If your stakes allow it, I would give it a try. If you are scaling out, then of course that will reduce your average exit price (ie make it closer to your entry), but of course it widens the gap to the red, and so will make you feel better psychologically speaking. You can also do it if the position starts going against you, again to lessen your red. It's something to think about. I've started doing it a lot more and it seems to help me manage my position better.

I would also keep going and trade the evening card, as suggested. Especially if there is 30 mins between the races, it can give you plenty of time to assess things.

Glad to see you've not given up.

[goat68]

Hi Goat,

Have you tried scaling in and out of a position at all, or are you just putting opening a position and then putting a closing position at (x) ticks away and a stop loss at (y) ticks away for example?

If your stakes allow it, I would give it a try. If you are scaling out, then of course that will reduce your average exit price (ie make it closer to your entry), but of course it widens the gap to the red, and so will make you feel better psychologically speaking. You can also do it if the position starts going against you, again to lessen your red. It's something to think about. I've started doing it a lot more and it seems to help me manage my position better.

I would also keep going and trade the evening card, as suggested. Especially if there is 30 mins between the races, it can give you plenty of time to assess things.

Glad to see you've not given up.

I have tried scaling yes, but have had problems with it, the classic one being when it goes your way and you scale up, it then reverses but quicker than you can scale out again, so you net lose, and ditto in reverse, so when you scale out on it going against you it then reverses and you can't scale back in as quick as it moves etc. ie.each scale "costs" you

[Maturin]

I have tried scaling yes, but have had problems with it, the classic one being when it goes your way and you scale up, it then reverses but quicker than you can scale out again, so you net lose, and ditto in reverse, so when you scale out on it going against you it then reverses and you can't scale back in as quick as it moves etc. ie.each scale "costs" you

Yes I know what you mean, sometimes when it starts moving against you quickly you just have to dump your position, rather than faffing about with scaling out.

I know I have asked you this before, and that you are concentrating on the ladders at the mo, but have you tried using advanced charting, to supplement the ladders? For me, it gives a nice visual representation of the long term trends, which is what I try to take advantage of (whilst trying to be aware of the trend completely reversing!).

[goat68]

I have tried scaling yes, but have had problems with it, the classic one being when it goes your way and you scale up, it then reverses but quicker than you can scale out again, so you net lose, and ditto in reverse, so when you scale out on it going against you it then reverses and you can't scale back in as quick as it moves etc. ie.each scale "costs" you

Yes I know what you mean, sometimes when it starts moving against you quickly you just have to dump your position, rather than faffing about with scaling out.

I know I have asked you this before, and that you are concentrating on the ladders at the mo, but have you tried using advanced charting, to supplement the ladders? For me, it gives a nice visual representation of the long term trends, which is what I try to take advantage of (whilst trying to be aware of the trend completely reversing!).

I have tried advanced charts yes, got on with them a bit, but I actually quite like Betfair charts(!) I actually think they are quite clever the way they show the whole timeframe with it's compression, as long as you understand how they are drawn they are fine. I am sure there are many tweaks I have not tried on advanced charts though.