Trading What I see !?

[spreadbetting]

Going to watch some videos to learn, the mood I'm in I can't see anything from the ladder

Why try trading just with the grid for now?

I know most traders prefer the ladder because of all the additional info it can give you but for someone starting out that can be too much of an information overload. The grid will gve you a much better vew of how prices relate to each other withn the market rather than focussing in on single runners.

[Morbius]

Stop posting anymore on this subject and distracting me

Probably deserves a separate thread TBH.

It was a bit of a breakthrough moment for me which is why I'll often join in on these debates.

I've loads of examples of people on either end of the spectrum that led me to realise there was probably an edge in the way you thought. But it requires going against the norms, which is why few can really pull it off.

But it's incredibly enlightening when you can do it.

Peter Webb you are hereby charged with the statutory offence of distracting Morbius and are therefore guilty and seeing as you have previous "convictions" within my household from your Youtube videos then I warn you...you are on thin ice with my not to be messed with other half

It is certainly a way of thinking for sure and is why some people simply cannot crack it but IMO they never give themselves a chance. I can't help using analogies because my work and teaching was directed down that avenue but its like going on a journey without knowing how long the journey is, if you don't have this information then how can you know how far you have to travel and if you stopped short then how far short were you?? If people simply stuck at the problem, I am certain that they would crack trading. But "sticking at the problem" isn't enough if all you do is stick doing the same thing. If people don't expand their knowledge and experience and learn from that then the reasons why you are wrong should reveal themselves over time.

This is why it is often just as productive to see strategies from traders who cannot get ahead and analyse them. They often reveal good strategies that were slightly incorrectly implemented or strategies that simply don't work thus taking you closer to the truth. "If in the course of eliminating everything that is untrue then what is left however improbable is true". A trading diary would highlight a lot of these pit falls.

"Endeavour to Persevere" as Abraham Lincoln once said, To quote another "intellectual".....Albert Einstein once said "I am not smarter than everyone else, I just stay with problems longer"

LAST POST ....EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Damn it...I can't post again but forgot to say something so its an edit. Yes at some stage there will be a "light bulb" drawing back of the curtains moment and that is a great feeling in any subject when it happens but it takes work and a bullish attitude to never giving in.

[Korattt]

if you study the BA videos on YT, you should be able to work out a common denominator that will more often than not provide a profit

[firlandsfarm]

if you study the BA videos on YT, you should be able to work out a common denominator that will more often than not provide a profit

I've studied the vids Korattt and watch the prices in races (and I have a 'bent' for numbers as a maths student) but all I see is a lot of numbers randomly increasing and decreasing with no pattern. For example ... Yes, it's obvious that if one price goes out then one or more must come in but that's of no help to man nor beast because it's instantaneous. So I see such comments, as Basil Faulty would say, as "stating the bleeding obvious"! Prices go up and come down and the cause is always because there is more money one way than the other that holds for every market everywhere in the world ... WHY the money pattern should be so is a completely different subject. So in the example the 'why' for other runners is not that the price on X went out it's why did the price on X go out. (Getting down to the 'proximate cause')

It's obvious Peter and many others here are very successful traders so they are doing something right but like Goat all I see are numbers changing at random! I think the best way to learn to trade would be to enjoy 1:1 mentoring otherwise all new traders are effectively inventing their own version of the wheel.

[Korattt]

if you study the BA videos on YT, you should be able to work out a common denominator that will more often than not provide a profit

.. but all I see is a lot of numbers randomly increasing and decreasing

you’re looking at too many numbers, just focus on one ladder & see what happens from there

[Morbius]

if you study the BA videos on YT, you should be able to work out a common denominator that will more often than not provide a profit

I've studied the vids Korattt and watch the prices in races (and I have a 'bent' for numbers as a maths student) but all I see is a lot of numbers randomly increasing and decreasing with no pattern. For example ... Yes, it's obvious that if one price goes out then one or more must come in but that's of no help to man nor beast because it's instantaneous. So I see such comments, as Basil Faulty would say, as "stating the bleeding obvious"! Prices go up and come down and the cause is always because there is more money one way than the other that holds for every market everywhere in the world ... WHY the money pattern should be so is a completely different subject. So in the example the 'why' for other runners is not that the price on X went out it's why did the price on X go out. (Getting down to the 'proximate cause')

It's obvious Peter and many others here are very successful traders so they are doing something right but like Goat all I see are numbers changing at random! I think the best way to learn to trade would be to enjoy 1:1 mentoring otherwise all new traders are effectively inventing their own version of the wheel.

Hi firlandsfarm.....I think you are beating yourself up too much about this if you don't mind me saying so. Being spoon fed someone's style and system isn't the way to go if all you do is copy it verbatim. If you can't figure Pete's style or anyone else's for that matter then devise your own but learn what sound trading principles and philosophy are first. All successful traders are "effectively inventing their own version of the wheel"...if you don't do that then you are replicating and that is not a recipe for success, or not long term success anyway. Investment Banks like Goldman Sachs for example highly value innovative thinking even if the trader isn't successful yet and has only ever lost money. Graduates with resumes with 2:1s and Masters often go straight into the bin in favour of someone with actual trading experience on many professional trading desks.

I will repeat Warren Buffet's famous quote, its harsh but very true......"first come the innovators, then come the imitators and finally come the idiots". Traders need to take a 30,000ft view of this and stand further away and see it as a bigger issue. I would much rather finance a trader who was learning and losing and trying to devise their own system and had failed with 20 bespoke systems of their own than one who straight from the get go was using someone else's well trodden path. The former has a larger potential capacity when done right. It would have a similar effect to too many people being in the same line of business in the same city.....the slice of the pie just gets smaller and smaller until there is no pie left. We all need a leg up sometimes, a bit like reaching for the dictionary when you can't be arsed to wrack your brain anymore to get the final answer in the crossword puzzle but reaching for the dictionary all the time isn't a good thing is it??

IMHO, my guess is that you aren't taking the proper lessons from your own experience because that has more value than perhaps you realise, it is after all a form of intellectual property. And numbers never change on a betting exchange at random, it just appears so. If a person couldn't read, the words and letters in a book would seem random but what you perceive to be "random" is in fact volatility that you are not translating correctly. As Pete said a while back, the market will trick you into doing certain things and you need to step back from that world.

Just my two penneth

[goat68]

This is what is so frustrating, a good run of wins and then give it all back on one wrong trade. I backed at 5.9, got out at 8.4 for a loss
It jumped straight past 6 to 6.8, I then evaluated other horses and they still pointed at it coming back in but it didn't I then waited for a pullback to trade out but it just shot out to 8s...

Price movement is so noisy and random, even if you pick the right direction you've got to give it room, and because of that noise you are very rarely going to enter at the best price, so going from say 5.9 out to 6.6 then back down to 5.3 for a profit would be quite normal... If you closed immediately it hit say 6.2 you'd kill most of your profit, also if you waited to enter at 6.2 most of the time you would never get a trade....

I'm seeing very little evidence that this game is a profitable one, I'm sort of taking all your words for it.....???

[goat68]

I've gone all in on the next race to make it all back, and I've gone the opposite of what my initial gut feel was!!

[to75ne]

I've gone all in on the next race to make it all back, and I've gone the opposite of what my initial gut feel was!!

do you mean you have stuck your total bank on one runner to win or lose?

[goat68]

I've gone all in on the next race to make it all back, and I've gone the opposite of what my initial gut feel was!!

do you mean you have stuck your total bank on one runner to win or lose?

No ! Just a bit bigger than my norm

[Trader Pat]

Being spoon fed someone's style and system isn't the way to go if all you do is copy it verbatim. If you can't figure Pete's style or anyone else's for that matter then devise your own but learn what sound trading principles and philosophy are first. All successful traders are "effectively inventing their own version of the wheel"...

Spot on!

If you're watching Peter's vids the trick is to ask yourself why he's getting involved in the market at that exact moment, in most of his videos he explains why.

As Morbius says this is not copy and paste. To truly learn any new skill you have to work hard to understand it, its not a case of monkey see monkey do.

[Trader Pat]

This is what is so frustrating, a good run of wins and then give it all back on one wrong trade. I backed at 5.9, got out at 8.4 for a loss
It jumped straight past 6 to 6.8, I then evaluated other horses and they still pointed at it coming back in but it didn't I then waited for a pullback to trade out but it just shot out to 8s...

Price movement is so noisy and random, even if you pick the right direction you've got to give it room, and because of that noise you are very rarely going to enter at the best price, so going from say 5.9 out to 6.6 then back down to 5.3 for a profit would be quite normal... If you closed immediately it hit say 6.2 you'd kill most of your profit, also if you waited to enter at 6.2 most of the time you would never get a trade....

I'm seeing very little evidence that this game is a profitable one, I'm sort of taking all your words for it.....???

Damn we've been rumbled!

[to75ne]

slight exaggeration then? did your outright back or lay come off then?

[goat68]

So that worked nicely back in good profit again thanks to Uzincso. You see it seemed so illogical backing it at 3.1, so that's what I did !
You can't make a system of finding illogical trades though, it's so hard to know what is illogical!!

[goat68]

This is what is so frustrating, a good run of wins and then give it all back on one wrong trade. I backed at 5.9, got out at 8.4 for a loss
It jumped straight past 6 to 6.8, I then evaluated other horses and they still pointed at it coming back in but it didn't I then waited for a pullback to trade out but it just shot out to 8s...

Price movement is so noisy and random, even if you pick the right direction you've got to give it room, and because of that noise you are very rarely going to enter at the best price, so going from say 5.9 out to 6.6 then back down to 5.3 for a profit would be quite normal... If you closed immediately it hit say 6.2 you'd kill most of your profit, also if you waited to enter at 6.2 most of the time you would never get a trade....

I'm seeing very little evidence that this game is a profitable one, I'm sort of taking all your words for it.....???

Damn we've been rumbled!

You guys make all your money through YouTube don't you? Com'on admit it?