Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

I am seeing a theme with other peoples PL, in that very few or very small losses. I let my trades swing to -potential profit, hence my large losses...

Always got to protect your bank as that's what keeps you in business. You'll see the old adage "let your profits run and cut your losses short" many times but it works. Big losses are the main things that throw traders off their stride as it makes chasing very tempting, if you can avoid those losses it might make trading that little bit more boring but does make it a lot less stressful and profitable.

Small wins soon build up as there's so many races in the day but to have a day's work wiped out by one loss is just soul destroying and hard from newer traders to accept. Probably 200 races a week at the moment so even an average fiver a race will return you a decent weeks profit.

I would reword that statement as 'small losses soon add up...' if you're strategy is not very good that market noise can easily go 3-4 ticks into the red..... I am targeting about 6 ticks win roughly, and 6 tick loss.

[alexmr2]

I think your biggest concern is that you recently mentioned you were using a £500 live bank? I definitely advise against using a bank of that size until you have AT LEAST 2 years experience under your belt. Reduce your expectations that it is only around the corner and that you can master this in the first year, I would bet you can't and neither can anyone.

The first problem is that inevitably you are going to lose a lot more money in the long learning process for not much extra benefit than using a £100 bank. The more you use a £500 bank the harder it will be to scale back and you are more likely to suffer from small bank syndrome, that can mean you are used to £20 greens now you are going to push your bank harder and try and get £20 out of every trade with a £100 bank too which is not realistic.

I know we are all desperate to use a bigger bank and try to justify it with "it's better to be patient with a £500 bank" but trust me that you need more experience and to focus on the process first. A dentist is not rich because they jumped into drilling peoples teeth in their first year of education, they are rich because they focused on learning the process and then after a few years the money starts to flow naturally for them as the process becomes second nature.

Over the next year would you rather have lots of £50 losing days or lots of £10 losing days?

[Korattt]

Thanks Korattt..and you've said before that for you, you are generally looking at max loss of 4 ticks or so?

approx, depends though, I think in time you’ll get a feel as what causes you to close a position because you think what you thought was going to happen has broken down

[Korattt]

alex talks a lot of sense with that post

[smallplayer]

You mean like going through a large volume traded band or a crossover? So you try to get your entry in somewhere, where your exit is at/beyond a position of safety (POS), as some would call it.

[Korattt]

You mean like going through a large volume traded band or a crossover? So you try to get your entry in somewhere, where your exit is at/beyond a position of safety (POS), as some would call it.

best video I could think of that adheres to that way of thinking

https://youtu.be/vnUp5dIrmRQ

[goat68]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

[alexmr2]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

It's not an exact science since every market is different but I would say those figures are too optimistic in general. If you are right 50% of the time then even having 1.5-2x risk to reward should put you well into profit. Add a crossover into the equation and you can easily achieve those with more or less the same number of ticks in either direction. If you watch some of Betangels videos, some trades are only a few ticks

[spreadbetting]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

You'll find life a lot easier if you try and make your losses smaller rather than trying to get bigger wins to cover your losses, especially if you think you'll be picking 15 tick wins on a regular basis after a few months trading.

[goat68]

I think i've just proved being greedy and trying to trade low volume mondays does not work, if there's not enough volume then things are not as predictable

they can work..


0858612B-9685-46EF-BB8F-D40E08AACB19.png

I'm guessing you're scalping with that win rate?

[Korattt]

I think i've just proved being greedy and trying to trade low volume mondays does not work, if there's not enough volume then things are not as predictable

they can work..


0858612B-9685-46EF-BB8F-D40E08AACB19.png

I'm guessing you're scalping with that win rate?

nope

[goat68]

they can work..


0858612B-9685-46EF-BB8F-D40E08AACB19.png

I'm guessing you're scalping with that win rate?

nope

Impressive

[Bubace]

I actually think I need to work out how to make my wins larger, as I don't think I can make my losses much smaller. So say 4 tick loss and 15 tick win.
Just don't see many 15 tick moves, given I'm not going to catch a complete move, the actual move would need to be 20+ ticks...?!

You'll find life a lot easier if you try and make your losses smaller rather than trying to get bigger wins to cover your losses, especially if you think you'll be picking 15 tick wins on a regular basis after a few months trading.

im about at the same stage in my journey as Goat, maybe slightly behind, the thing is i manage a good strike rate most days of over 70%-75%

But i never make a profit, its a loss for me everyday, im the complete opposite of what i should be, lots of small wins, and 3 or 4 big losses a day, very frustrating

[spreadbetting]

Too many people get hung up on strike rates to the detriment of their profit and loss. It's likely you're closing winning trades too early but hanging onto losing trades in the hope they'll turn around. Try to keep an eye on how far those winning trades go and see if you can hang onto them for longer.

With trading you've usually got some reason as to why you think a market is going to move in one direction and when you're right, you're right so should hang in to maximize profits but when you're wrong you're wrong so should get out, can't win them all.

If we enter a market randomly we're close to a 50/50 chance so it doesn't take too much to get those odds in our favour.

[Morbius]

I think your biggest concern is that you recently mentioned you were using a £500 live bank? I definitely advise against using a bank of that size until you have AT LEAST 2 years experience under your belt. Reduce your expectations that it is only around the corner and that you can master this in the first year, I would bet you can't and neither can anyone.

The first problem is that inevitably you are going to lose a lot more money in the long learning process for not much extra benefit than using a £100 bank. The more you use a £500 bank the harder it will be to scale back and you are more likely to suffer from small bank syndrome, that can mean you are used to £20 greens now you are going to push your bank harder and try and get £20 out of every trade with a £100 bank too which is not realistic.

I know we are all desperate to use a bigger bank and try to justify it with "it's better to be patient with a £500 bank" but trust me that you need more experience and to focus on the process first. A dentist is not rich because they jumped into drilling peoples teeth in their first year of education, they are rich because they focused on learning the process and then after a few years the money starts to flow naturally for them as the process becomes second nature.

Over the next year would you rather have lots of £50 losing days or lots of £10 losing days?

This is very sound advice and one of the best posts I have read since I joined the forum. Although the utility value of money dictates that the "value" of £500 can be a lot different from person to person, I totally get what you are saying. One of the best pieces of advice I have ever heard was from the ex-WSOP main event winner Greg Raymer when he was asked on how to pick a suitable stake level and he replied...."choose a level that motivates, not intimidates".

I mentioned in another thread with Peter on how if all you have was a strong "psychology" then essentially you have nothing because without a +EV method then you cannot possibly trade. However this is slightly misleading because there is still a need for a good psychology even though a strong psychology is usually a derivative of having a sound system that has demonstrable results over time.

If you have little respect for that stake levels ("small bank syndrome") then this can easily destroy some very valuable learning experience because you are pressing when you shouldn't be, a bit like a new driver operating their vehicle at speeds that don't match their experience...hence why car insurance is so expensive for new drivers especially young drivers. As the poster said, by staying in the game you give the learning process the chance to work. It's an organic process and don't kill the flower in its early stages by over watering it. It is a very tough journey for nearly all traders unless you were very fortunate at the outset to get structured expert one to one tutelage. The desire to want to rush the process is a powerful one but nearly ALL traders start out by losing money usually in the first year or two.

It is NORMAL for a learning curve to be as long as that as said, reading Market Wizards by Jack Schwager is illuminating not to mention Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master. Trading any financial market exposes a trader to emotions and environments that go completely contrary to what people do naturally.