Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Morbius]

if you ask me, at the end of the day it’s all about money, or lack of it, as someone has already pointed out.. this is gonna cost trillions in the long run, why?, ‘cos everyone was caught with their pants down, Greta Thunberg, remember her?, banging on about climate change?, yes.. she’s right but even she didn’t see this coming,

by the way.. we’ve two weatherspoons here in Pottyborough & they’re selling ale for 99p a pint til lockdown Thursday

Mankind has basically got what it deserved, we know and have known for over a hundred years the dynamics of pandemics. This is a well trodden and mathematically modelled area. We know with full certainty what happens when an uncontrollable pandemic with designated R rates and mortality rates is let loose from an unknown Virus, just like tracing a river back to its point of origin. We don't need (in theory) to spend trillions of dollars on combatting a pandemic, we need to be more aware of how they start in the first place and chop it off at the ankles. Restrict at all costs the ability of a animal virus to jump to a human but this is where China falls horribly short and they basically cause the rest of the world a headache. However there are just too many animals on the planet and too many humans, sooner or later there is going to be a jump and sooner or later its going to be one we can't control and that won't burn itself out rapidly.

The big pandemics of the 1950's and 1960's came from China iirc. The problem isn't so much the money, its getting China to play ball. I did some applied research on pandemics a couple of years ago and the dynamics of them and how they transmit are intriguing and that rabbit hole goes very deep hence why it is difficult to compare data from country to country.

Even the GDP is linked to virus transfer hence why after China, the next logical areas to be hit was Western Europe and the USA thus giving these areas shorter time to prepare. A countries wealth and individual wealth as well as levels of debt are all linked to escalating virus transfer, age demographic, ethnicity etc etc etc.The evidence now is leaning towards the fact that China were not forthcoming about the details at the outset. The problem here in my opinion is mankind...rather than living as one, each country has their own individual agendas and way of living making pandemics almost tailor made to cause global chaos.

People keep turning to goverments for answers and science but history tells us that the 1917-18 flu reached a level where basically mathematics overwhelmed science. Mankind is simply not advanced enough to be able to combat everything that comes its way and this has been a harsh reminder. Throw into the mix how westerners are so concerned about their "god damn liberties" and you have almost no chance to combat this thing. Someday we will have a generic vaccine that will solve the problem but then imagine what the exponential growth would be if several million people didn't die who could then reproduce and what that would do to the already stretched global population??

And younger people need to be reminded that there just may be a much longer chain of events at work here than just what has happened in the past few months. The Spanish Flu killed mainly younger people because the older population had lived through a previous flu epidemic in the 1880's and had built up immunity. My big fear is if this virus mutates into something far worse. it's already behaving in a way that is different to other Covid's.

Money is clearly an issue because its basically utopian to suggest that we can always stop a viral transfer from every animal on the planet to a human when many countries appear not to care. I can well picture a 3rd and 4th wave simply because its like comparing a virus to a fire....as long as there is enough combustible material to burn then the fire will burn and in this instance its us that are the "combustible material". Given our estimates on how many people have actually had the virus (5%-10%) depending on whose figures you see, it is going to take some considerable time to reach the much talked about "herd immunity" given that we are ten months in and still only 5%-10%.

I have no faith in the vaccine being a full defence.....normal yearly vaccines aren't a full defence for conventional flu so why would this one be?? This is where we are paying the price for nearly 8 billion people on the planet.

[sniffer66]

if you ask me, at the end of the day it’s all about money, or lack of it, as someone has already pointed out.. this is gonna cost trillions in the long run, why?, ‘cos everyone was caught with their pants down, Greta Thunberg, remember her?, banging on about climate change?, yes.. she’s right but even she didn’t see this coming,

by the way.. we’ve two weatherspoons here in Pottyborough & they’re selling ale for 99p a pint til lockdown Thursday

Mankind has basically got what it deserved, we know and have known for over a hundred years the dynamics of pandemics. This is a well trodden and mathematically modelled area. We know with full certainty what happens when an uncontrollable pandemic with designated R rates and mortality rates is let loose from an unknown Virus, just like tracing a river back to its point of origin. We don't need (in theory) to spend trillions of dollars on combatting a pandemic, we need to be more aware of how they start in the first place and chop it off at the ankles. Restrict at all costs the ability of a animal virus to jump to a human but this is where China falls horribly short and they basically cause the rest of the world a headache. However there are just too many animals on the planet and too many humans, sooner or later there is going to be a jump and sooner or later its going to be one we can't control and that won't burn itself out rapidly.

The big pandemics of the 1950's and 1960's came from China iirc. The problem isn't so much the money, its getting China to play ball. I did some applied research on pandemics a couple of years ago and the dynamics of them and how they transmit are intriguing and that rabbit hole goes very deep hence why it is difficult to compare data from country to country.

Even the GDP is linked to virus transfer hence why after China, the next logical areas to be hit was Western Europe and the USA thus giving these areas shorter time to prepare. A countries wealth and individual wealth as well as levels of debt are all linked to escalating virus transfer, age demographic, ethnicity etc etc etc.The evidence now is leaning towards the fact that China were not forthcoming about the details at the outset. The problem here in my opinion is mankind...rather than living as one, each country has their own individual agendas and way of living making pandemics almost tailor made to cause global chaos.

People keep turning to goverments for answers and science but history tells us that the 1917-18 flu reached a level where basically mathematics overwhelmed science. Mankind is simply not advanced enough to be able to combat everything that comes its way and this has been a harsh reminder. Throw into the mix how westerners are so concerned about their "god damn liberties" and you have almost no chance to combat this thing. Someday we will have a generic vaccine that will solve the problem but then imagine what the exponential growth would be if several million people didn't die who could then reproduce and what that would do to the already stretched global population??

And younger people need to be reminded that there just may be a much longer chain of events at work here than just what has happened in the past few months. The Spanish Flu killed mainly younger people because the older population had lived through a previous flu epidemic in the 1880's and had built up immunity. My big fear is if this virus mutates into something far worse. it's already behaving in a way that is different to other Covid's.

Money is clearly an issue because its basically utopian to suggest that we can always stop a viral transfer from every animal on the planet to a human when many countries appear not to care. I can well picture a 3rd and 4th wave simply because its like comparing a virus to a fire....as long as there is enough combustible material to burn then the fire will burn and in this instance its us that are the "combustible material". Given our estimates on how many people have actually had the virus (5%-10%) depending on whose figures you see, it is going to take some considerable time to reach the much talked about "herd immunity" given that we are ten months in and still only 5%-10%.

I have no faith in the vaccine being a full defence.....normal yearly vaccines aren't a full defence for conventional flu so why would this one be?? This is where we are paying the price for nearly 8 billion people on the planet.

Informative and interesting read, if sobering. Thanks.

[superfrank]

from the Telegraph:

Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have been summoned before MPs to explain the evidence for a national lockdown, after their 4,000 deaths figure was questioned by scientists.

The pair will face the Science and Technology Select Committee on Tuesday afternoon, amid mounting concern that the graphs shown at a press conference on Saturday evening were out-of-date and alarmist.

Modelling presented by Sir Patrick, the government’s Chief Scientific Advisor, showed that under a worst case scenario 4,000 deaths-a-day could occur by December 20 - four times more than the worst day of the first peak.

However, the forecast was compiled on October 9, five days before new tier restrictions came into effect, and researchers at Oxford University pointed out that if the modelling had been correct, deaths would now be around 1,000-a-day.

Instead, the current rolling seven day average is around 265 and Monday’s death figure was just 136.

Suggestions the lockdown could be paused or cancelled if it turns out they messed up.

The R-rate in England has fallen to 1 according to King’s College.

[Derek27]

Furthermore, you don't need to be qualified to pass judgement on BJ ignoring the advice of his own scientific advisors and then five weeks and a thousand deaths later deciding to take it.

You do need to be qualified in understanding all parameters of a decision and that science is just one angle. Many are taking the decision of 5 weeks ago, putting it into the conditions of today and not considering (knowing) other advice that contributed to decision of 5 weeks ago. That's not a real world, that's a hindsight world.

Let's keep things simple. The advice five weeks ago was, infections and deaths are rising, they will continue to rise exponentially, do something about it immediately. It's rather like the weeds on your lawn getting out of hand - it's hardly rocket science. You can't call it hindsight when BJ was given the advice five weeks ago and sat on it.

[Korattt]

received this via our work group chat less than an hour ago.. here’s David Icke’s take on things

https://youtu.be/O6waue2tDSY

[spreadbetting]

Not saying it's some reptilian disease is he?

David Icke

According to British conspiracy theorist David Icke, who first published on this theme in his 1999 work The Biggest Secret, tall, blood-drinking, shape-shifting reptilian humanoids from the Alpha Draconis star system, now hiding in underground bases, are the force behind a worldwide conspiracy against humanity.[19] He contends that most of the world's ancient and modern leaders are related to these reptilians, including the Merovingian dynasty, the Rothschilds, the Bush family and the British Royal family.[20] Icke's conspiracy theories now have supporters in up to 47 countries and he has given lectures to crowds of up to 6,000.[21][22] American writer Vicki Santillano included it in her list of the 10 most popular conspiracy theories.[23]

A poll of Americans in 2013 by Public Policy Polling indicated that 4% of registered voters (±2.8%) believed in David Icke's ideas.[24]

[Korattt]

thing is Spreads there’s someone at work who says “this bloke gets it”.. scary

[LeTiss]

I used to follow David Icke on Twitter. He's a fruitcake though. I eventually unfollowed him, as some of his conspiracy theories were so ludicrous, I was embarrassed at being connected to him

[spreadbetting]

The thing is governments have made such a pig's ear of handling the pandemic it makes life easier for the likes of Icke to pick out bits that suit their narrative.

[Korattt]

The thing is governments have made such a pig's ear of handling the pandemic it makes life easier for the likes of Icke to pick out bits that suit their narrative.

it’s the fact that there are people out there that subscribe to his way of thinking that frightens me, anyhow.. YT have now pulled that video as it doesn’t adhere to their guidelines, oh well

[Morbius]

I used to follow David Icke on Twitter. He's a fruitcake though. I eventually unfollowed him, as some of his conspiracy theories were so ludicrous, I was embarrassed at being connected to him

The problem is that some of his stuff actually has some (I stress some) substance hence why he gets the following he does. He isn't a total fruitcake....just half of one

[firlandsfarm]

Let's keep things simple. The advice five weeks ago was, infections and deaths are rising, they will continue to rise exponentially, do something about it immediately. It's rather like the weeds on your lawn getting out of hand - it's hardly rocket science. You can't call it hindsight when BJ was given the advice five weeks ago and sat on it.

Derek, all I'm saying is we don't know what was discussed, what advice Boris and Co were given in total and why they took the decision they did. I don't believe they sat down and said "OK Mr Scientist what''s your advice ... well thank you for that but we are going to completely ignore you for no reason and do something else"! We were not party to the decision therefore we do not know the influencing factors that were taken into account. We can only assess it with hindsight.

[Derek27]

Let's keep things simple. The advice five weeks ago was, infections and deaths are rising, they will continue to rise exponentially, do something about it immediately. It's rather like the weeds on your lawn getting out of hand - it's hardly rocket science. You can't call it hindsight when BJ was given the advice five weeks ago and sat on it.

Derek, all I'm saying is we don't know what was discussed, what advice Boris and Co were given in total and why they took the decision they did. I don't believe they sat down and said "OK Mr Scientist what''s your advice ... well thank you for that but we are going to completely ignore you for no reason and do something else"! We were not party to the decision therefore we do not know the influencing factors that were taken into account. We can only assess it with hindsight.

We know that a lockdown or circuit breaker was advised. I can well believe that BJ ignored it because he's more concerned about the economy but it doesn't help to have these discussions in private only to be leaked later. If they're not open about their discussions we have every right to make inferences from BJ being dead against a circuit breaker and then doing a dramatic u-turn. If anything has changed between the advice and the lockdown resulting in the change of mind it's up to him to communicate that, but he has a habit of pretending the past has never happened.

[Morbius]

Let's keep things simple. The advice five weeks ago was, infections and deaths are rising, they will continue to rise exponentially, do something about it immediately. It's rather like the weeds on your lawn getting out of hand - it's hardly rocket science. You can't call it hindsight when BJ was given the advice five weeks ago and sat on it.

Derek, all I'm saying is we don't know what was discussed, what advice Boris and Co were given in total and why they took the decision they did. I don't believe they sat down and said "OK Mr Scientist what''s your advice ... well thank you for that but we are going to completely ignore you for no reason and do something else"! We were not party to the decision therefore we do not know the influencing factors that were taken into account. We can only assess it with hindsight.

+1

There are a lot of people making assumptions of what the government are doing based on not knowing what data they have or anything that is in depth about their advisory team/SAGE. Because of the unique characteristics of this virus, like any mathematical model we need to update it constantly and conclusions one month can be totally opposite to conclusions the following month with fresh data.

The problem I had with the process (and it hasn't altered) is that in my experience of working with scientists and modellers that I know full well how they can easy fall in love with their models that they create. In my mind this is a bit like comparing an actuary to a quant. Quants are very good at what they do but actuaries have a much deeper depth to their knowledge and understanding. The science advisors to the government seen more quantitative than qualitative and this is the problem IMO. We seem to have gone a totally numbers route without any injection of common sense pragmatism and the government have no option as being non-experts but to listen to them. Any data at the outset on a totally new virus is going to be very volatile but what we don't need during that extreme volatility where getting ahead of the curve is vital is to do the totally wrong thing for several weeks.

All I see when I look at Vallance, Witty and Tam are Quants and that to me is a dangerous state of affairs.....

[Derek27]

I generally don't like making assumptions about people but I think it's quite safe to make the assumption that Boris Johnson's a twit, to put it mildly, and it's easier to predict or assume what a twit is going to do or think.