Do you work out the ratings yourself ?, or use a web source ?
europa league matches only taken into account ?
or all ?
Europa league
I have been doing them for many years so they are all self generated. I prefer domestic UK league as I can do those most accurately. The cross border stuff is a little more tricky and less accurate, but now you have very liquid and generally accurate markets like Betfair I can compare and constrast to those as well.
Lower leagues are a little trickier and I suspect there is value in the lower league games for people with good knowledge.
Lower leagues are a little trickier and I suspect there is value in the lower league games for people with good knowledge.
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
yes, i do similar things myself.
im not too keen on euro games due to the different leagues and the accuracy or inaccuracy of the co-efficients needed to predict results and thus fair odds.
im not too keen on euro games due to the different leagues and the accuracy or inaccuracy of the co-efficients needed to predict results and thus fair odds.
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BennyBlanco
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:35 pm
Could anyone be good enough to provide me with some guidance in calculating my own ratings? I have no knowledge on this whatsoever, and thus I presume it is using a 10's of thousands of results/statistics and then putting the criteria of a match into an excell spreadsheet and running some kind of macro?!
I've been interested in this since reading this on Peter's Blog:
http://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/10 ... l-1008.cfm
Thanks in advance for any responses.
Ben
I've been interested in this since reading this on Peter's Blog:
http://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/10 ... l-1008.cfm
Thanks in advance for any responses.
Ben
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
start with the leagues and not cross border comps or cup matches.
Plenty of reading out there, that will get you started.
just look in your local book retailer, or look for betting on football/predicting football results books on line.
good luck.
Plenty of reading out there, that will get you started.
just look in your local book retailer, or look for betting on football/predicting football results books on line.
good luck.
Tonights ratings from most to least goals: -
Most point to overs tonight and I would forecast 64 goals this evening.
PSV v Debrecen
Sevilla v Karpaty
OB v Young Boys
Porto v Besiktas
Leverkusen v Aris Thes.
Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg
Gent v Sp Lisbon
Lausanne v Sparta Prague
Dinamo Kiev v Az Alkmaar
Lech Poznan v Man City
Rosenborg v Atl Madrid
Rapid Vienna v CSKA Sofia
Hajduk Split v Zenit St Petersburg
Getafe v Stuttgart
BATE Borisov v Sheriff Tiraspol
Levski Sofia v Lille
Steaua Bucharest v Utrecht
Club Brugge v Dinamo Zagreb
AEK v Anderlecht
Paris St-G v Dortmund
Sampdoria v Metalist
Liverpool v Napoli
PAOK v Villarreal
Most point to overs tonight and I would forecast 64 goals this evening.
PSV v Debrecen
Sevilla v Karpaty
OB v Young Boys
Porto v Besiktas
Leverkusen v Aris Thes.
Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg
Gent v Sp Lisbon
Lausanne v Sparta Prague
Dinamo Kiev v Az Alkmaar
Lech Poznan v Man City
Rosenborg v Atl Madrid
Rapid Vienna v CSKA Sofia
Hajduk Split v Zenit St Petersburg
Getafe v Stuttgart
BATE Borisov v Sheriff Tiraspol
Levski Sofia v Lille
Steaua Bucharest v Utrecht
Club Brugge v Dinamo Zagreb
AEK v Anderlecht
Paris St-G v Dortmund
Sampdoria v Metalist
Liverpool v Napoli
PAOK v Villarreal
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BennyBlanco
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:35 pm
65 goals this evening! A small profit across quite a number of markets...and then Gerrard! But a profit all the same.
I was on unders on the Liverpool match but when Gerrard came on at half time I closed for a small profit. It's always important not to stick rigidly to your pre-match plan if something fundamental changes. Gerrard really is a legend, how many times has he saved Liverpool?
Rankings for this evening, most goals to least. Most are over 2.5 this evening, maybe one or two point to unders: -
Dortmund vs Karpaty
CSKA Moscow vs Lausanne
Villarreal vs Dinamo Zagreb
Rapid Vienna vs Porto
Palermo vs Sparta Prague
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Az Alkmaar
CSKA Sofia vs Besiktas
Utrecht vs Napoli
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Kiev
Paris St-G vs Sevilla
PAOK vs Club Brugge
Steaua Bucharest vs Liverpool
I would estimate around 34 goals this evening but forecasting it's a little harder given the importance of some of the matches.
Dortmund vs Karpaty
CSKA Moscow vs Lausanne
Villarreal vs Dinamo Zagreb
Rapid Vienna vs Porto
Palermo vs Sparta Prague
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Az Alkmaar
CSKA Sofia vs Besiktas
Utrecht vs Napoli
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Kiev
Paris St-G vs Sevilla
PAOK vs Club Brugge
Steaua Bucharest vs Liverpool
I would estimate around 34 goals this evening but forecasting it's a little harder given the importance of some of the matches.
Last edited by Euler on Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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BennyBlanco
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:35 pm
Thanks for the ratings for tonight. I shall be hitting the L'pool match mainly I think.
Sorry, forgot to post up here: -
Twelve matches and I reckon there should be around 33/34 goals. It's tougher at this stage of the tournament as incentives to score can vary and so can the strength of teams put out. So I tend to be less confident at this stage of the tournament. The knockout phase usually brings out better motivation in players.
The three matches I'd be most likely to lean on over 2.5 goals are Stuttgart, Lille and Anderlecht.
The three matches I'd be most likely to lean on under 2.5 goals are, AEK, Debrechen and Levski Sofia.
The stand out match is Juventus vs Man City and it looks like it could go either way but be quite tight. That is my main interest this evening.
Most to least goals: -
Stuttgart vs OB
Lille vs Gent
Anderlecht vs Hajduk Split
Leverkusen vs Atl Madrid
PSV vs Metalist
Getafe vs Young Boys
Aris Thes. vs Rosenborg
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lech Poznan
Juventus vs Man City
AEK vs Zenit St Petersburg
Debrecen vs Sampdoria
Levski Sofia vs Sp Lisbon
Twelve matches and I reckon there should be around 33/34 goals. It's tougher at this stage of the tournament as incentives to score can vary and so can the strength of teams put out. So I tend to be less confident at this stage of the tournament. The knockout phase usually brings out better motivation in players.
The three matches I'd be most likely to lean on over 2.5 goals are Stuttgart, Lille and Anderlecht.
The three matches I'd be most likely to lean on under 2.5 goals are, AEK, Debrechen and Levski Sofia.
The stand out match is Juventus vs Man City and it looks like it could go either way but be quite tight. That is my main interest this evening.
Most to least goals: -
Stuttgart vs OB
Lille vs Gent
Anderlecht vs Hajduk Split
Leverkusen vs Atl Madrid
PSV vs Metalist
Getafe vs Young Boys
Aris Thes. vs Rosenborg
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lech Poznan
Juventus vs Man City
AEK vs Zenit St Petersburg
Debrecen vs Sampdoria
Levski Sofia vs Sp Lisbon
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Beautiful move on the Levski Sofia - Sporting match. Poor liquidity unfortunately...
Most goals to least forecast this evening: -
Ajax vs. Spartak Moscow
Benfica vs. Paris St-G
Leverkusen vs. Villarreal
PSV vs. Rangers
Twente vs. Zenit St Petersburg
Dinamo Kiev vs. Man City
CSKA Moscow vs. Porto
Braga vs. Liverpool
20-21 goals in total I reckon.
Braga vs Liverpool looks interesting. Liverpool are on a high at the moment and it doesn't look like that's been priced in?
Ajax vs. Spartak Moscow
Benfica vs. Paris St-G
Leverkusen vs. Villarreal
PSV vs. Rangers
Twente vs. Zenit St Petersburg
Dinamo Kiev vs. Man City
CSKA Moscow vs. Porto
Braga vs. Liverpool
20-21 goals in total I reckon.
Braga vs Liverpool looks interesting. Liverpool are on a high at the moment and it doesn't look like that's been priced in?