Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2038
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm

smallplayer wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:27 pm
If you had traded nothing today but the last, you could have made a days wages. Mostallim came in from 11's to 3.5 where a blind man could have seen it would retract. just an example that you don't have to trade many, just the obvious ones.
Oh I must be blind, I traded Mostamillim, Layed at 9.2 as I thought 9 would provide support and all other favs looked on downtrends...
Bailed for loss at 7.2 :-(
smallplayer
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:30 am

mostallim.png
Think I got lucky tbh :D
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Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:23 pm
My main setups are based on Betfair chart analysis, as I can't really see what else you can use as the ladder is just a point in time view...?
There's not much about a market that can't be included, but the main ones I use are in 1. and 2. in my previous post. I only have a few that involve charts.

An example where Peter talks about it (first minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zI0vI0t3vU
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goat68
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Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:30 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:23 pm
My main setups are based on Betfair chart analysis, as I can't really see what else you can use as the ladder is just a point in time view...?
What's happening on the ladder is where your eyes need to be, the more you watch the activity on the ladder the better you'll get at interpreting what you see. Charts are what you look at first to see what has already happened, the ladder is what is happening right now. When you have money in the market would you rather be looking at old information or be looking at up to the second information?

Think of it like crossing the road. Do you cross the road based on what cars were on that particular part of the road 5 minutes ago or what cars are on it right this second?
Not sure your car analogy works, maybe for a 1 tick scalp, but the cars in the road at that point is going to give no indication that one is off to Scotland and the other Cornwall!
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:43 pm
Not sure your car analogy works, maybe for a 1 tick scalp, but the cars in the road at that point is going to give no indication that one is off to Scotland and the other Cornwall!

If you're reading the ladder correctly you might even be able to tell what parts of Scotland and Cornwall the cars are going to
Last edited by Trader Pat on Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:40 pm
smallplayer wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:27 pm
If you had traded nothing today but the last, you could have made a days wages. Mostallim came in from 11's to 3.5 where a blind man could have seen it would retract. just an example that you don't have to trade many, just the obvious ones.
Oh I must be blind, I traded Mostamillim, Layed at 9.2 as I thought 9 would provide support and all other favs looked on downtrends...
Bailed for loss at 7.2 :-(
Do you remember what I said about backing at 6.8? The same is true for laying at 9.2, who is going to support your position and be willing to lay here? If big money comes in at these prices you'll never get out. If you're laying, you ideally need a crossover (>> that has been tested! <<) underneath you, Peter talks about it in the video I linked.
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goat68
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Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:23 pm
My main setups are based on Betfair chart analysis, as I can't really see what else you can use as the ladder is just a point in time view...?
There's not much about a market that can't be included, but the main ones I use are in 1. and 2. in my previous post. I only have a few that involve charts.

An example where Peter talks about it (first minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zI0vI0t3vU
So Peter implicitly is using the chart for that trade, he says price action before this is fav coming in, and 2nd fav going out.... That would be obvious on the chart.. That is a setup I would use from charts and the crossover
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goat68
Posts: 2038
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Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:51 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:40 pm
smallplayer wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:27 pm
If you had traded nothing today but the last, you could have made a days wages. Mostallim came in from 11's to 3.5 where a blind man could have seen it would retract. just an example that you don't have to trade many, just the obvious ones.
Oh I must be blind, I traded Mostamillim, Layed at 9.2 as I thought 9 would provide support and all other favs looked on downtrends...
Bailed for loss at 7.2 :-(
Do you remember what I said about backing at 6.8? The same is true for laying at 9.2, who is going to support your position and be willing to lay here? If big money comes in at these prices you'll never get out. If you're laying, you ideally need a crossover (>> that has been tested! <<) underneath you, Peter talks about it in the video I linked.
Yes, my main reason was I thought it looked weak, and all the other runners strong...
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goat68
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I'm feeling an idiot, I'm off to watch a film with a stiff drink!
"I'll be back" !
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:52 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:42 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:23 pm
My main setups are based on Betfair chart analysis, as I can't really see what else you can use as the ladder is just a point in time view...?
There's not much about a market that can't be included, but the main ones I use are in 1. and 2. in my previous post. I only have a few that involve charts.

An example where Peter talks about it (first minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zI0vI0t3vU
So Peter implicitly is using the chart for that trade, he says price action before this is fav coming in, and 2nd fav going out.... That would be obvious on the chart.. That is a setup I would use from charts and the crossover
He is, but he's mainly talking about the recent price activity (which I assume he has witnessed prior to starting the video) and he says if a favourite breaks through the crossover at this point, it tends to accelerate. Less important, but noteworthy: it is at Chelmsford *, in January, fairly modest matched volumes and from what I can tell, a weak field, but one that has decent potential to support his position.

The problem with charts is like Pat said, they're a lagging indicator and worse than that, they have no timescale and poorly indicate volumes. Money speaks, but BF charts are a distorted interpretation of what it says.

* https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/blog ... cecourses/
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2144
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:30 pm
Do you cross the road based on what cars were on that particular part of the road 5 minutes ago or what cars are on it right this second?
I like that analogy! Imo gb is like a road next to a school. Quiet most of the time, but everyday @08:30 you need your wits about or you're gonna end up roadkill :)
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:44 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:30 pm
Do you cross the road based on what cars were on that particular part of the road 5 minutes ago or what cars are on it right this second?
I like that analogy! Imo gb is like a road next to a school. Quiet most of the time, but everyday @08:30 you need your wits about or you're gonna end up roadkill :)
:D
Tetras
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:54 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:51 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:40 pm


Oh I must be blind, I traded Mostamillim, Layed at 9.2 as I thought 9 would provide support and all other favs looked on downtrends...
Bailed for loss at 7.2 :-(
Do you remember what I said about backing at 6.8? The same is true for laying at 9.2, who is going to support your position and be willing to lay here? If big money comes in at these prices you'll never get out. If you're laying, you ideally need a crossover (>> that has been tested! <<) underneath you, Peter talks about it in the video I linked.
Yes, my main reason was I thought it looked weak, and all the other runners strong...
I guess there are layers who profit from laying at these prices, but I don't think I would be. The problem is that I just don't trust a few people laying tenners to indicate if it's weak (or not), they often drift only because of the book % shifting prior to post. You'd have to regularly find 9.2s that drift into 11, 12+, etc, to account for the ones that drop like a stone into 8, 7-.
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speedyhamster
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:58 am

goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:40 pm
smallplayer wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:27 pm
If you had traded nothing today but the last, you could have made a days wages. Mostallim came in from 11's to 3.5 where a blind man could have seen it would retract. just an example that you don't have to trade many, just the obvious ones.
Oh I must be blind, I traded Mostamillim, Layed at 9.2 as I thought 9 would provide support and all other favs looked on downtrends...
Bailed for loss at 7.2 :-(
^^ following the markets
It has passed 9 and is continuing down pass 9 as there is a lot of money being matched on the back side, non of the other close horses are near crossover points that could reverse to stop the downwards trend, but i will keep assessing if that is the case, does it look if the support for Mostamillim is reducing or is there any support/resistance on any of the other close horses to change direction enough to effect my horse to reverse and go against me.

^^ trading what you see. (mainly on the ladders)
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speedyhamster
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:58 am

Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:15 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:52 pm
Tetras wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:42 pm


There's not much about a market that can't be included, but the main ones I use are in 1. and 2. in my previous post. I only have a few that involve charts.

An example where Peter talks about it (first minute): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zI0vI0t3vU
So Peter implicitly is using the chart for that trade, he says price action before this is fav coming in, and 2nd fav going out.... That would be obvious on the chart.. That is a setup I would use from charts and the crossover
He is, but he's mainly talking about the recent price activity (which I assume he has witnessed prior to starting the video) and he says if a favourite breaks through the crossover at this point, it tends to accelerate. Less important, but noteworthy: it is at Chelmsford *, in January, fairly modest matched volumes and from what I can tell, a weak field, but one that has decent potential to support his position.

The problem with charts is like Pat said, they're a lagging indicator and worse than that, they have no timescale and poorly indicate volumes. Money speaks, but BF charts are a distorted interpretation of what it says.

* https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/blog ... cecourses/
which is why i use candle charts as a guide but mainly the ladders
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