I don't understand why you think your trading should be profitable.
Might be because people believe that, unlike the stock market where they trade with banks and the best professionals in the world, on a betting market they trade order flow mainly generated by drunk punters who stick a tenner on the favourite and make the assumption that it is like a walk in the park.
I know i'm guilty of that. or was, but still... that thought hides somewhere in the back of my mind.
Aims and expectations are different things but loosely those words can be used interchangeably.
If you step into a boxing ring, you aim to win and expect to win. Nobody goes into the ring expecting to get a good pasting.
Very good thread guys, so I thought I would jump in,
I am in this already for over 4 years and still no profit and I know why and I am trying to work on it.
There is the logical and the psychological aspect to it as we know. And one should get both in order to be successful.
If you have the numbers right then you need to get yourself right and vice versa.
Straightaway the guys here noticed that you are overstaking and you already know yourself that you also overclicking.
That's it ! You know the problem! But it's not that simple !
To me it feels like sport sometimes where one has to train a lot and then rest. One can tend to overtrade and get tired and as every athlete need to have the time off.
This year I took almost 2 months off and wonders where happening when I started again. It was all inside me but with a new fresh look. Recommend it!
Also the pressure makes one do things we normally wouldn't do. If we look at trading as fun and not as a job where we have to get a certain result then maybe that will bring some kind of positive force in us. Look how much fun Peter has, it shows in his videos and post, full of positive energy.
Sometime I trade for the sake of trading and not for the sake of winning. That's a big one! It is addictive to click on those numbers aimlessly. Take a break, read a book, watch a movie, meet with friends, take time off, reset and restart. Trade football for a change or tennis then come back to racing. Being selective and not trade everything one sees is a helpful advice as well.
These are some of my thoughts. I most probably forgot something.
One thing I've advised struggling traders to do in the past, is momentarily stick to what sports you primarily know and love
I openly admit that I ABSOLUTELY LOATHE horse racing. I have zero interest in it
I found that I was losing money left, right and centre in the racing markets. A major reason for that was a lack of knowledge and interest. I never fully buy into the mindset of trading what you see, because you'll often find spikes that are orchestrated by people with a greater understanding of what's going on
I decided to trade on football only for a period of time. I could happily watch and study football all day long. When I look at football prices, I can quite often immediately detect what's value and where I think there will be price movements. The odds compilers are only offering up their opinions and I reckon my opinions are equal to theirs
This turned a corner for me. I started hammering out consistent greens and this built my confidence to start dabbling again in other markets
Yeah, the market is a great teacher at times but the amount of homework it gives you is pretty ridiculous sometimes!
But just a little reminder that it's okay to cheat sometimes and peek over another student's shoulder. I may errr, have done it once or thrice myself, but only on some of the most difficult questions I promise!
I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.
You don't really need to worry about that aspect.
I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??
I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.
You don't really need to worry about that aspect.
I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??
There will always be dumb money in any financial market but the problem is that nobody thinks it's them.
The metric should be....no proven demonstrable success should equate to dumb until proven otherwise. An old poker adage....if after fifteen minutes at a poker table you haven't spotted the sucker...it's you.
One of the most important questions a trader needs to ask is who am I making money against? Who is my strategy beating and how and why? If you can identify that then you likely have an edge in the market. If you can't answer that then you likely dont. You don't need to back test to prove an edge either because you can do so conceptually and theoretically but that requires hard work. Two years isn't that long to really understand trading. Many find successful methods in their first year but don't stay the course. This is because many purely quant driven methods have a shelf life.
To become a trader takes time and the average is three to five years to really understand it. I have spoken to many winning traders who didn't have deep trading knowledge but never realised they didnt. So keep at it....keep learning and explore many avenues because in doing so you will get a deeper rounded education at the end of it. And real trading skills are transferable because of the knowledge depth.
"All who wander are not lost" - Tolkien
Last edited by Morbius on Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
As an add on...you don't need to become the best to take money from the best. It's simply a case of identifying what's happening in the market and how dumb money
loses. it not unlike winning from a bookmaker in so much that you don't beat the bookie...you are simply transferring wealth from losing punters via the bookmaker and is similar to doing it against market makers
I've studied the structure of the markets a lot in 20 years and there is a lot of dumb money in the market. I've gathered data from a number of sources to understand exactly what is going on the in market. I can elaborate next week when I have some more time if you like.
You don't really need to worry about that aspect.
I'd be interested in a video also please Peter, although i'm intrigued by your last sentence "You don't really need to worry about that aspect." ??
There will always be dumb money in any financial market but the problem is that nobody thinks it's them.
The metric should be....no proven demonstrable success should equate to dumb until proven otherwise. An old poker adage....if after fifteen minutes at a poker table you haven't spotted the sucker...it's you.
One of the most important questions a trader needs to ask is who am I making money against? Who is my strategy beating and how and why? If you can identify that then you likely have an edge in the market. If you can't answer that then you likely dont. You don't need to back test to prove an edge either because you can do so conceptually and theoretically but that requires hard work. Two years isn't that long to really understand trading. Many find successful methods in their first year but don't stay the course. This is because many purely quant driven methods have a shelf life.
To become a trader takes time and the average is three to five years to really understand it. I have spoken to many winning traders who didn't have deep trading knowledge but never realised they didnt. So keep at it....keep learning and explore many avenues because in doing so you will get a deeper rounded education at the end of it. And real trading skills are transferable because of the knowledge depth.
Where is your profitability? How far have you drilled down into your own trades and your own trading circumstances? Your thread has prompted me to do my own analysis after two months trading.
Having worked in data analytics and MIS technology for years I've learnt to see a dataset as a rubric's cube e.g. from multiple viewpoints.
Here's my checklist:
General:
Using betangel v using exchange
Doing something else while trading v focused
On my phone v on mylaptop
Research v jump in
Entry on the Lay side v back side
Cashout v greeup
Weekday v Weekend
Daytime v evening
Set entry & exit criteria v eyeball
Good weather v poor weather
Football:
1st half v 2nd half
Overs v unders
Home v away
Prem league v other leagues
Tennis:
Underdog v fav
Opening service games v later in the match
1st set v 2nd set
ATP v WPT
Hard v clay v grass v indoors
Golf & Horses are practice mode at this stage
I'm profitable, in both tennis and football in the first part of the events, with research, on the ATP and Prem leagues, focused, setting entry and exit criteria. In need to drill down more to understand lay or back side and Overs v Unders and fav v udog, surface conditions & weather.
I'm not profitably overall!! Losses come from; chasing a -ive trade, being distracted, being stupid, jumping in, lack of knowledge/skill.
Find your profitability. Language is very powerful, being glass half full can sometimes be all the difference.
Good luck, and thank you for openly sharing, just what us newbies need to keep our feet on the ground.
