Today's Horse Racing

[The Silk Run]

the bullshit for me is these damned spikes in prices 4 or 5 mins out ... how you can have a position in the right direction with these things happening is one of the things thats really baffling me again..................

Almost every race today has had 1 of these spikes. I now do absolutely noting until the spike comes in, there was an pattern forming after each spike today across all markets that you could take advantage off, that is until that pattern changes of course...

I haven't looked at horse racing charts for some time now. Before the COVID-19 pandemic I did occasionally monitor the candlesticks on Betfair charts for abnormalities potentially exposing professional gamblers, punters with inside information. It does take time to read before gathering enough confidence to mirror the bet. I don't believe the system is unique with others practising similar methodology.

[jamesg46]

Do you guys instantly start tinkering or do you let it run to capture a bigger data set? My thoughts are instead of using stop losses as such I could use a close trade rule that will close the trade if greater than an average of it's daily losses, the losses that exceed the average account for nearly 50% of it's losses.... is that even correct logic?

[eightbo]

James the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)

I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?

Unrelated PS Since when was considered a swear word? badger

[MAGTRADEUK]

The way these spikes react, are they stop hunters? I always found with stops that they usually fire and take you out of a position then the position reverses. The way these spikes are coming in on some markets these days, they will take out stops that are too tight. I prefer not to use them but base a mental stop depended on volatility of the market being traded.

[jamesg46]

James the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)

I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?

Unrelated PS Since when was considered a swear word? Old Centaur employee

There currently isn't any stop loss criteria, which was done on purpose. The bot simply opens because criteria has been met and greens up at post time, this was why I'm thinking I could set a close trade rule based on the averages I've collected from previous results. I don't like the idea of fixed tick stop losses. Tbh, I'm not sure how to go about it, thanks for the reply eightbo.

[Atho55]

You can spend hours looking for a solution re losses when the same time could be allocated to challenging the entry point IMHO...

[jamesg46]

You can spend hours looking for a solution re losses when the same time could be allocated to challenging the entry point IMHO...

I've been tinkering with the entry point this morning... im afraid though that I might be doing it prematurely. I'll see how it goes today, I've done nothing in regards to stop losses, I've not yet decided how I want to go about it. Cheers Atho

[wilf]

Newbury and Doncaster should be good today, it's trading well. There's some good quality horses running.

[Euler]

Newbury and Doncaster should be good today, it's trading well. There's some good quality horses running.

You would think that would produce an above average day.

[threedogs]

HMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.

I love spikes as they present an easy opportunity to make a couple of ticks ...

[jimibt]

HMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.

I love spikes as they present an easy opportunity to make a couple of ticks ...

i've been collecting second by second data on the UK nags PRE for a while now. I may delve in and review the indicators leading up to this type of activity. i'd say it's more than possible that a good few ticks could be made in these races alone. i've monitored the talk this week about this but not really reacted. wondered if there were any standout races over this week that would be worth focussing on??

[Euler]

Feature race went well at Newbury, lovely market.

[goat68]

Feature race went well at Newbury, lovely market.

Agree, I made 27p from it!

[goat68]

Then just gave -£1.26 back on Newb 15:35
This is such a difficult game if your anticipation is wrong, it creeped against me but flow of money didn't look strong so I stayed in, until it gets too far...and I'm out..same old....!

[MAGTRADEUK]

found todays markets much easier to trade did not notice those pesky spikes so much if at all in the races traded.