Hi all,
I began trading horse racing pre-race in January, I'm sure I don't need to tell anyone here it is the hardest challenge, but a largely enjoyable one.
I'm at a stage now where I am consistently profitable, but improvements need to be made.
For example, for November:
62% of trades were successful
38% were losers
My average win (£100 stakes) was 11.82
My average loss was 16.33
I wanted to ask the experienced traders here, what I should focus on, should it be increasing strike rate or cutting losses shorter for example?
I could just increase stakes, but feel like I want to make improvements 1st.
Of course the best answer is get better at everything, but I guess I wondered, from your experiences, where I should really focus my attention at this stage
Many Thanks
Looking for some advice as I near the end of my 1st year trading
Great idea to improve your process before scaling.
Get better at journalling. We don't know your system or your personality whereas you do.
Those numbers you posted are just a byproduct of your strategy. I will include an example for using the stats you mentioned first seeing as that's what you asked about, but you may find it's far more effective to focus more on the 'up-front' stuff.
...3 Examples of improvement based on journalling:
1. You know you have a tendancy to get annoyed after a string of losers in which case you might lean toward focusing on improving strike rate to reduce the frequency of emotional trading. As such you set out to explore & implement ways to add confirmation to your entries.
2. You notice the MFE of your trades is commonly much higher than your actual profit result, suggesting you might be taking profits too late. You begin to take more notice of trades which are working, with the goal of identifying an optimum balance between running trades which still have potential to extend, and cutting them before they reverse.
3. You weren't sure what to improve so you decided to begin monitoring your intuition on trades. You noted down 1-5 for how strongly you felt about the trade being of high quality and left a short note on any 4s/5s. After a while, you noticed a particular type of trade which usually gets recorded as a 4 or 5, was failing most of the time. You first experimented with adding additional confirmation on that trade, which you found had no effect after a further few weeks, so you ended up completely eliminating those trades (ps if you find something that is particularly good at losing, you can look to flip it on its head to turn it profitable).
PS Don't forget to set some goals for 2021.
Some sense of direction will usually result in your being more proactive even if you don't know how you will get there yet. Let your
fill in the details.
Consider monthly goals too and review your progress at the end of each week to keep yourself on track.
Get better at journalling. We don't know your system or your personality whereas you do.
Those numbers you posted are just a byproduct of your strategy. I will include an example for using the stats you mentioned first seeing as that's what you asked about, but you may find it's far more effective to focus more on the 'up-front' stuff.
...3 Examples of improvement based on journalling:
1. You know you have a tendancy to get annoyed after a string of losers in which case you might lean toward focusing on improving strike rate to reduce the frequency of emotional trading. As such you set out to explore & implement ways to add confirmation to your entries.
2. You notice the MFE of your trades is commonly much higher than your actual profit result, suggesting you might be taking profits too late. You begin to take more notice of trades which are working, with the goal of identifying an optimum balance between running trades which still have potential to extend, and cutting them before they reverse.
3. You weren't sure what to improve so you decided to begin monitoring your intuition on trades. You noted down 1-5 for how strongly you felt about the trade being of high quality and left a short note on any 4s/5s. After a while, you noticed a particular type of trade which usually gets recorded as a 4 or 5, was failing most of the time. You first experimented with adding additional confirmation on that trade, which you found had no effect after a further few weeks, so you ended up completely eliminating those trades (ps if you find something that is particularly good at losing, you can look to flip it on its head to turn it profitable).
PS Don't forget to set some goals for 2021.
Some sense of direction will usually result in your being more proactive even if you don't know how you will get there yet. Let your
fill in the details.Consider monthly goals too and review your progress at the end of each week to keep yourself on track.
Like eightbo said already, the numbers aren't something I'd use to make suggestions, because I don't know if they're to be expected or not. Do YOU think you're leaving something on the table with your strategy (or strategies)? That seems more important than what I think.
You're profitable, so what makes you fearful of scaling? I assume you're anticipating something about how you trade, won't serve you so well?
You're profitable, so what makes you fearful of scaling? I assume you're anticipating something about how you trade, won't serve you so well?
Thank you both, really appreciate the feedback and it has certainly helped steer my mind in the directions of improvements.
I learned early on that the market was not going to be my biggest challenge, my own mind was. Thanks to Mark Douglas audiobooks (remarkable works) on repeat whenever i'm in my car, i'd say my strength would be thinking n probabilities, accepting I don't know the outcome of individual trades etc. The way I see it, I have a weighted coin that will land on heads 62% of the time. If I get 3 or 4 tails in a row, I just need to keep flipping it.
From your feedback, I have picked out these "work ons"
1. I am holding my trades too long and the MFE of my trading needs to improve.
2. I am happy with the discipline of my exits for a loss, but would like parity at least with my average win and average loss, so i'm going to focus on adding to my positive trades where the indicators allow (whilst trying not to chase a price).
3. I think the best way to improve strike rate will be to get better at NOT trading. Some markets I arrive at give me a clear picture and it feels effortless, others leave me looking and trying to find something, at this pont I will start going to the next market, as they have a way of sucking you in with a "oh this might be happening".
Tetras, you are right to say I could scale up and increase profits, but I feel like my margins are tighter than they should be, so my staking reflects my skill level, so would like to refine things before doing so.
To be profitable in my 1st year, I feel i'm doing lots right. Your feedback is much appreciated and you asked just the right questions for me to improve further.
Many thanks again.
I learned early on that the market was not going to be my biggest challenge, my own mind was. Thanks to Mark Douglas audiobooks (remarkable works) on repeat whenever i'm in my car, i'd say my strength would be thinking n probabilities, accepting I don't know the outcome of individual trades etc. The way I see it, I have a weighted coin that will land on heads 62% of the time. If I get 3 or 4 tails in a row, I just need to keep flipping it.
From your feedback, I have picked out these "work ons"
1. I am holding my trades too long and the MFE of my trading needs to improve.
2. I am happy with the discipline of my exits for a loss, but would like parity at least with my average win and average loss, so i'm going to focus on adding to my positive trades where the indicators allow (whilst trying not to chase a price).
3. I think the best way to improve strike rate will be to get better at NOT trading. Some markets I arrive at give me a clear picture and it feels effortless, others leave me looking and trying to find something, at this pont I will start going to the next market, as they have a way of sucking you in with a "oh this might be happening".
Tetras, you are right to say I could scale up and increase profits, but I feel like my margins are tighter than they should be, so my staking reflects my skill level, so would like to refine things before doing so.
To be profitable in my 1st year, I feel i'm doing lots right. Your feedback is much appreciated and you asked just the right questions for me to improve further.
Many thanks again.
Glad I could help bring about some clarity for you.
For your #3 something I did was gave myself 3 "tokens" to use each market and checked a tickbox each time I closed a trade.
I found that to be great at combatting my tendency to overtrade. Sure, sometimes I missed an opportunity because of that but it meant I was no longer chasing price around taking average trades. FYI I also remember trying 20 "tokens" in a day but found I couldn't stick to that, presumably because it was too long-term and not really there at the front of my mind while actively trading the market.
Would be cool to hear how you're getting on in future, what you're thinking about and how you're going about it. I'm sure that would wake up a lot of readers who are still losing long-term. Maybe pop back to this thread every few months with an update if you remember to.
For your #3 something I did was gave myself 3 "tokens" to use each market and checked a tickbox each time I closed a trade.
I found that to be great at combatting my tendency to overtrade. Sure, sometimes I missed an opportunity because of that but it meant I was no longer chasing price around taking average trades. FYI I also remember trying 20 "tokens" in a day but found I couldn't stick to that, presumably because it was too long-term and not really there at the front of my mind while actively trading the market.
Would be cool to hear how you're getting on in future, what you're thinking about and how you're going about it. I'm sure that would wake up a lot of readers who are still losing long-term. Maybe pop back to this thread every few months with an update if you remember to.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I humbly suggest you look at cutting losses quicker rather than letting them exceed your profits. I have never seen your trades and I don't know you personally, but the losses should not be greater than your profits.
If you reduce the losses, you could then revisit the profits, and hold the good position a little longer?
My advice is to revisit those losing trades; you may find a pattern you can change.
HTH
JG
If you reduce the losses, you could then revisit the profits, and hold the good position a little longer?
My advice is to revisit those losing trades; you may find a pattern you can change.
HTH
JG
To be honest 62% successful trades sounds not bad at all.
Maybe to increase this winning rate you could compare your decisions with horse betting tips on horsebetting.com that are made prior to the race. Of course these tips are not always right but they are predicted by experts, so it can be interesting to take them into consideration.
Maybe to increase this winning rate you could compare your decisions with horse betting tips on horsebetting.com that are made prior to the race. Of course these tips are not always right but they are predicted by experts, so it can be interesting to take them into consideration.
Last edited by Reinke on Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JollyGreen wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:06 am...
If you reduce the losses, you could then revisit the profits, and hold the good position a little longer?
My advice is to revisit those losing trades; you may find a pattern you can change.
HTH
JG
Any trades taken in 2020, JG ? As the new year approaches, do you have any advice you're giving yourself for 2021 in trading or in life ?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I have had a lot of issues in 2020, but I am not the only one. I did quite a bit of trading on Betdaq, but it meant small stakes due to the lack of liquidity. I have done some limited stuff on Betfair.
I will stay in hibernation until things start to improve. The Cheltenham Festival is where I start to ramp it up.