Bookies Boost = Profit?

[Undertow]

Hi Guys,

First time posting here, so let me pre-face with a tiny touch of background information.
I'm a long time gambler, betting the bookies way with massive accumulators based on gut feelings and quick glimpses at form cards. Primarily on the football. I recently started trying betting "smarter", i.e more money on less odds using a bit more common sense, rather than ten £5 accas a week on 10folds, I moved to 2 £25 bets a week on even favourites I thought were good odds. Over the year, that's lead me down the path to betting and trading the exchange and in turn, to Bet Angel and here.

I know very little about horses, I used to use an impervious technique I called "pick the 2nd favourite if its recent form is OK and the favourite isn't odds on". In the last week or so, when looking at horse markets for trading - I stumbled across SkyBets "boosts". They often boost a favourite to win via x+ furlongs, or boost a 2/3rd favourite to place.

As I have no knowledge of horses bar going and recent form, I decided the bookies must know what they're on about? If they're offering "boosted" odds for the 3rd favourite to place, they must be somewhat confident it WONT place? Likewise, if they are backing the favourite to win by x+ furlongs, they are confident it will win so want people to bet on the more unlikely outcome it wins by a margin.

Using this logic, I tested it on the exchange using minimum stakes, but yesterday alone I managed a 10/11 strike rate laying places and backing favourites in line with the bookies, often at similar/better odds in my favour. Is a tactic like this feasible long term? It seems almost too simple and maybe I got lucky. Would be interested in seeing if anyone else has had long term success with a tactic like this?

[jimibt]

first off, welcome to the forum, glad you stumbled here eventually

now, i think your logic is definitely sound in terms of the bookies lure - definitely worthwhile opposing those deals for obvious reasons that you found out yesterday. as well you know, it will take more than a few days to discern whether this has legs or not. If i were you, I'd paper trade (i.e. using excel) purely by creating a grid of your daily choices and the odds they are offered at. Then, add a marker as to whethter you'd back or lay them. After 3-4 weeks, a pattern should emerge and from there, you may be able to apply some fine tuning.

It may even be worth looking for other similar pieces of data (i.e. do lads/willhill offer any *tips* on runners that they think will do well). by amalgamating all this info, you may find that you have a shortlist each day that has a decent strikerate. that said, it may be that nothing will fall out the bottom once you've experienced a longer run... trial and error -and tight record keeping.

[Derek27]

I started betting on horse racing aged 8, took it more seriously and was studying it from the age of 14. But it took another 10 years before I was profitable! I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

As for price boosts, if I thought a horse was value at 6/1 and a bookie boosted its price to 8/1, I'd trust my judgement over the bookies. I don't know what the reasons are for price boosts but it could simply be a strong favourite and less money for the boosted horse, which could well be overlooked.

There are many aspects of horse racing that novice/lay punters completely overlook, such as, the likely pace of a race can have a bigger impact on a horses performance than its form, draw bias on fast ground, etc. Timeform used to have some excellent informative articles on the subject so I'll give you a link but I haven't read any of their current ones.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/b ... k-a-winner

[TraderFred]

I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

Or just learn how to check on betfair which ones are trading under the bookies price, then relentlessly arb them.

Even an 8 year old can learn how to do that !

Your accounts won’t last very long, though you do get to go on Twitter and post screen shots of your rejected bets and stakes and moan about how the bookmakers never lay a bet.

[Undertow]

I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

First of all, thank you for the link - I've been giving the beginners guide a run through and applied some extremely basic logic to laying prerace for inplay and it's going well.

I'd just like to clarify though, probably the way I rambled fault, but I'm not looking to win with the bookies, more piggy back off their knowledge via trying to interpret why they have done something

[alexmr2]

The bookies offers come in a range of different mathematical edges. You can either use the matched betting approach to lock in the profit by laying on the exchange or you can just bet at value. Usually the welcome offers are the best whereas most of the reload ones have a very small edge if any.

Knowing how big the edge is is everything, you can use the exchange to get a good guess at working out if it is worth it. Don't be fooled by an odds boost which boosts the bookies odds from 3.5 to 4.0 when the exchange has that same bet at 4.1

If you are betting at value then you ideally want a decent edge + a big enough sample size for the variance to play out. Personally I don't really find any value in odds boosts but I do in some of the offers like Skybet cash back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd

If you don't understand it and want to learn then I'd advise learning through a matched betting site. Eventually your accounts will be restricted if you are taking value consistently though

[napshnap]

The bookies offers come in a range of different mathematical edges. You can either use the matched betting approach to lock in the profit by laying on the exchange or you can just bet at value. Usually the welcome offers are the best whereas most of the reload ones have a very small edge if any.

Knowing how big the edge is is everything, you can use the exchange to get a good guess at working out if it is worth it. Don't be fooled by an odds boost which boosts the bookies odds from 3.5 to 4.0 when the exchange has that same bet at 4.1

If you are betting at value then you ideally want a decent edge + a big enough sample size for the variance to play out. Personally I don't really find any value in odds boosts but I do in some of the offers like Skybet cash back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd

If you don't understand it and want to learn then I'd advise learning through a matched betting site. Eventually your accounts will be restricted if you are taking value consistently though

I think TS meant he wants to bet on the exchange and use bookies for value detection. Not a visa versa.

[Derek27]

I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

First of all, thank you for the link - I've been giving the beginners guide a run through and applied some extremely basic logic to laying prerace for inplay and it's going well.

I'd just like to clarify though, probably the way I rambled fault, but I'm not looking to win with the bookies, more piggy back off their knowledge via trying to interpret why they have done something

You can't piggyback off a bookies knowledge because.....they don't have any knowledge. They only win by barring punters who beat them.

Bookies have form experts that price up every race the night before, but however good they are (they weren't necessarily better than me when I was a punter), they've got a lot of races to price up and so a small amount of time to do it, whereas a skilled punter can spend an hour on one race and be a step ahead of them. So they generally put up a large overround, only take small bets; it's only mid-morning when they start refining their market and get more competitive as money comes in. I would speculate that if they're offering a boost on a particular horse it's because there's been a lack of money for it and their book can accommodate it.

[Crazyskier]

I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

; it's only mid-morning when they start refining their market and get more competitive as money comes in. I would speculate that if they're offering a boost on a particular horse it's because there's been a lack of money for it and their book can accommodate it.

It has always been my understanding that the bookies price their 'boosts'to balance their book overrounds rather than any increased likelihood of the boosted horse winning or losing. This is why different bookies offer different odds and boosts and I think it's purely coincidence that Sky bet had a particular day with boosted horses winning or losing.

That said, as we always say hereabouts: Testing and large sample sizes are everything. Good luck!

CS

[puntinrolls]

I don't think you can profit from horse racing with bookies unless you really learn a lot about the sport and the nature of horses.

First of all, thank you for the link - I've been giving the beginners guide a run through and applied some extremely basic logic to laying prerace for inplay and it's going well.

I'd just like to clarify though, probably the way I rambled fault, but I'm not looking to win with the bookies, more piggy back off their knowledge via trying to interpret why they have done something

You can't piggyback off a bookies knowledge because.....they don't have any knowledge. They only win by barring punters who beat them.

Bookies have form experts that price up every race the night before, but however good they are (they weren't necessarily better than me when I was a punter), they've got a lot of races to price up and so a small amount of time to do it, whereas a skilled punter can spend an hour on one race and be a step ahead of them. So they generally put up a large overround, only take small bets; it's only mid-morning when they start refining their market and get more competitive as money comes in. I would speculate that if they're offering a boost on a particular horse it's because there's been a lack of money for it and their book can accommodate it.

I wonder at what point the bookies follow the exchanges for prices, like how far away from the off? As a match better I can see the bookies odds are generally only a second or so behind any move on the exchange when I'm looking to get matched close to the off.