Football Index

Post Reply
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

They now show how many divs each player has earnt in the past 12 months - like Mason Greenwood has earnt 11p in divs last 12 months yet his price in Sept. was £9.57, he's now 2.52/2.7 :lol: and you only get to hold that bet for 3 years.

It seems it's all about media dividends so that's why Sancho's price hit almost £15 as he's earnt £2.78 in 12 months but considering he dominated all the summer transfer headlines he couldn't possibly keep that going and the free market is now figuring that out.
MAGTRADEUK
Posts: 97
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:24 pm
https://www.celebdaq.co.uk/
Brain mulch for the TOWIE, CHESIRE HOUSEWIVES ET ALL MASSES.............And they say the human race gets smarter......... !!!
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 20428
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

Naffman wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:41 am
You only get to hold that bet for 3 years.
So it's a term limited contract as well? The impression I got was that it was in perpetuity, but I haven't really bothered much with it or researched it. That would add a whole new dimension to it.
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:36 am
Naffman wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:41 am
You only get to hold that bet for 3 years.
So it's a term limited contract as well? The impression I got was that it was in perpetuity, but I haven't really bothered much with it or researched it. That would add a whole new dimension to it.
Not heard the term perpetuity in a while... usually heard it on the Timeshare presentations getting my free gift or park tickets! 😂
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:36 am
Naffman wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:41 am
You only get to hold that bet for 3 years.
So it's a term limited contract as well? The impression I got was that it was in perpetuity, but I haven't really bothered much with it or researched it. That would add a whole new dimension to it.
99% sure it is and I think you're only eligible for matchday dividends (if your player is one of the top performing players on that day) if that contract was bought within 28 days so you basically have to keep buying to get these.

All about the dividends though lads :lol:
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 20428
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

If the contract terms is limited and dividends know then, in theory, you should be able to pin a true value on a market.

It would be the discounted return of dividends and a terminal value, in this case zero.
jamesg46
Posts: 2418
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:34 pm
If the contract terms is limited and dividends know then, in theory, you should be able to pin a true value on a market.

It would be the discounted return of dividends and a terminal value, in this case zero.
People are saying that term limits aren't an issue because they can simply sell their shares at the end of the term and then buy new shares in the same player giving them another 3 years. Obviously this doesn't take into consideration the decline in share price.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 20428
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

It's sort of misleading to list them as shares in which case as what you effectively have is a traded option with an underlying value.
sionascaig
Posts: 442
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:55 pm
It's sort of misleading to list them as shares in which case as what you effectively have is a traded option with an underlying value.
But with dividends... Plenty of stuff out there for placing a value on options re time decay & if I remember rightly there is some spiky stuff that goes on with options re dividend declarations - although the post above about holding them for a certain amount of time may smooth that out (or create another spike based on expectations!)...
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 20428
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
Contact:

I modelled traded options with fixed expiries and with or without dividends in the 90's. Still have the model somewhere.

Though it's not much use here it seems unless you can short? Can you sell on FI without buying first?
Post Reply

Return to “Alternative betting exchanges, Smarkets, Matchbook etc.”